What are you backing Today?

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Desert Orchid said:
I backed Producer on seeing that Hughes preferred it to the other thing. My heart sank when I heard Clarabelle telling the viewers on C4 that he did so because of a sparkling piece of work last week.

How many times is this phenomenon followed by an abject performance on the day?

Peaking too soon...
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F8cking right again.:(
 
I’m a solid fan of Dawn Approach in a hot Sussex. But there are four strong candidates. I expect Gregorian to show up well today at a big price.
 
Galway 6:50 Kingdom - Right blend of proven form and progressiveness.:)
 
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7.50 Musselburgh

I like a couple of CD Winners here,so will back both [BOG]

Mayoman @ 13-2 [Bet 365] & Red Baron @ 5-1 [Bet 365]

1pt win each
 
Steve T said:
Reappears today at Goodwood, chance to recoup?
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I put him up in the doc I sent to family/friends but changed my mind when I saw VC was longest about him in the morning, as that's usually a sign that it won't win, and I switched to Homage. The relief was tangible when they called the result!

(With apologies to backers of Pythagorean - it was the best horse in the race yet again.)
 
3.05 GOODWOOD: Tickled Pink
Connections of Tickled Pink have travelled over for the 3:40 Goodwood today, including the 90 year old mother. She told all the layabouts in Boylesports here that it will win. Boyles shortest at 5s. I think she really needs the rain to stay away but she is a nice filly
 
6.25 Showpiece [nap]...had very the useful true story behind at this trip last time..neither of the first two in the betting here are in that league..4.4 taken
 
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SECRET ADVICE 2.20 DONCASTER

Secret Advice has been most consistent in 5f handicaps this season, 591121. That improves to 1121 when the going is good to firm. The ground is currently good with good to firm places but it is forecast to be 24 degrees in Doncaster today with a decent breeze so the ground should be sufficiently dry enough come race time. Secret Advice beat stablemate Salvatore Fury last time and she is clearly progressive. She is now 13lbs higher than when she won off 56 earlier in the season. However, her record when she is in the top two of the weights over 5f reads WW from two races. Keith Dalgleish sends her on her own and his record when sending one horse to Doncaster reads 2-9, 3-14 overall. However, that record improves to 1212 when the horse is single figure odds, 12121 overall.

Green Monkey looks the likely jolly. He has been dropped back to 5f on his last two runs and has improved. He won a 0-60 before looking a tad unlucky in a 0-65 when second to Blessing Box. Fanshawe is 18-76 when sending one horse to Doncaster. They generally run well but it is two years and eleven runners since one won. He holds a 20% strike rate with all runners at the track and 8 have run here this season, all losing.

Different looks sure to improve on her debut in a handicap at Newcastle in June. However, she is by Bahamian Bounty whose progeny generally need the run after a break of 60 days or more, 63-964. The yard are quiet even though Moviesta won the other day, Smart is just 2-45 in the last month though the stable do well with her family, 11-47 with 3yos.

Friendship Is Love has had just the one run and the handicapper has given her a mark of 56. She won her maiden over 6f needing plenty of driving so she is going to find this tough. She is by Byron who is 1-35 with his progeny on this track. Elsworth is 0-27 stretching back to early June.

Conclusion: The betting this morning suggests this is between four but it is likely to concern the top two in the market. This looks like the last opportunity for Secret Advice to race in this grade before having to move up. She should be in front rank throughout and is taken to improve her trainer’s record here.

PINTURA 3.10 GALWAY

Pintura has followed a similar route to last year. He run in the better Topaz Mile over 8f before dropping back to 7f and taking this. He is 7lbs higher than his win last year and 1lb lower than his win at York. He has conditions to suit. Kevin Ryan is 2-3 in this race with the loss a 4th of 16. Cash Or Casualty looks to be the only front runner in the race and he should be able to track that horse before making his move. He should be thereabouts.

DON PADEJA 8.00 LINGFIELD
Don Padeja looks certain to improve now he is in a handicap. He is by Dansili whose progeny do well over 12f on the polytrack, 3-7 in 2013. However, his trainer, Luca Cumani is in sublime form at present with 7 of his last 15 runners winning, 7-12 at single figure odds. Four of the last six 3yo maidens Cumani has saddled in a handicap have won and he does well with this family, 12-43.

Kastini is the danger and his win last time in a weaker event has been franked by the second winning. He was previously third to Debdebdeb and that horse has franked the form by placing in a class 2 and winning a class 3 off 10lbs higher. Fallon is 4-8 for Coakley on horses that are first or second favourite in the betting. However, Kastini is 8lbs higher here in a better race against a fully unexposed sort and he will have to improve more than that if he is take this.

Slip Of The Tongue was favourite for his last two handicaps but he has shown nothing. He has been fractious in the preliminaries and is a big imposing gelding. Might not be suited by this track. His fourth behind Duchess Of Gazely has been franked with that horse winning again off 8lbs higher. This is right on the edge of the maximum distance the progeny of Zamindar want to travel on the flat and it is most likely he’ll be heading for the sales and will end up hurdling this winter.

Conclusion: There is no pace in this race and Slip Of The Tongue could be forced to make it as he pulls hard. Queally should settle Don Padeja just off the pace and it could be he is very well in here off 68.
 
Hoping Integral (15:15 Goodwood) will improve even further to take the Nassau. Quite impressive in lesser company so far.
 
Wow, the Nassau was a very messy race. Integral just didn't have the speed to win this, no excuses. Probably needs a similar distance but a stiffer track, and maybe even more cut in the ground?
 
ROSIE REBEL 4.55 NEWBURY
Rae Guest has an excellent record with 3yo fillies in class 5. Since the start of 2012 with horses starting at single figure odds his record reads 15-35, 4-7 in 2013. Chris Catlin has been on board 15 of them winning on 8, 3-5 in 2013.

The form of her third to Goodwood Mirage is very strong considering, Goodwood Mirage went on to be fourth to Maputo in a class 2 off 7lbs higher and second in a class 3 at Goodwood last week. Second was Persepolis who won a maiden by 12ls and fourth was Sennockian Star who has since win 4 the latest off 14lbs higher.
 
Fun bets for Sunday

Chester
2.00 Gallic Breeze
3.05 Ballista

Mkt Rasen
4.00 Renoyr e/way
5.05 Around A Pound e/way

Newbury
2.10 Samoan
3.50 Whippy Cream e/way
 
Dovil's Duel 3.15 Newbury.
This horse caught my eye at Lingfield on its last run, had the worst of the draw and was switched in behind the field. Couldn't get a run through on the rail so switched left then right and left again before running on very strongly, would have won in another 50 yards. Comes up against 3 previous winners in this nursery so hard to evaluate the form with these but must have a decent ew chance over 1f further.
 
SHARP SHOES 3.15 CATTERICK (Each Way)

Sharp Shoes doesn’t jump off the page crying to be backed but he may have been given a helping hand today. The ground at Catterick is soft with good to soft places but the amount of rain that fell yesterday was a lot more than 17mm they are reporting. When the going rides soft at Catterick it can pay to be drawn high. In 3yo+ handicaps of 11 or more runners the stats are interesting. From 17 races, 8 were won by a horse drawn in one of the outside four stalls, six of those were drawn widest of all.
Sharp Shoes hasn’t won for two years and now races off a 13lbs lower mark. He was well beaten on his last visit here in May. However, he run a cracker under this jockey last year over course and distance when 3rd to Rock On Candy. Seven horses have won from that race this season including the winner off 8lbs higher. He also has a fourth to Come On Dave over course and distance and the first three have won five between them this season. That was a particularly good run as Sharp Shoes was drawn 6 and the winner was drawn 11-11. Chris Wilson is 3-15 in 3yo+ handicaps over sprint distances at Catterick, 3-13 in class 6. It improves to 2-8 when Paddy Aspell rides with a further two placed.

Piste won the race last year, Tina Jackson’s last winner on the flat, and is well drawn but she is 0-25 on good or slower.

The likely jolly is Gottcher who has never placed in nine races on good or slower.

Quality Art is 0-9 on good or slower though he did place the other day on good to soft. He is 0-19 for Richard Guest.

Pavers Star won off 55 earlier this season and is 4lbs higher here. He is 0-6, never placed on good to soft or slower.

Wicked Wilma ran last night. She is well drawn but she is 0-10 on soft ground, has won on good to soft. She comes from a yard that couldn’t train ivy up a wall and Berry is currently on losing run of 50 stretching back to June

One Kool Dude is 1-28 and the win was on soft ground. He is 6lbs lower and has his second run for Neville Bycroft. First time blinkers may well perk him up and he could run well.

Sir Geoffrey will be popular but six of his eight wins have come on a straight track. He is just 2-28 going left handed and 0-5 on a turning track. He is 2-3 in class 6 on turf. He is well handicapped but Scott Dixon is 0-23 in the last month

Bird Dog is well drawn but has yet to place from seven races on turf.

Prignsov Dancer is 0-13 on good or slower.

Sophies Beau is 0-7 at this track and has won twice at Beverley. She has never placed in four races on soft ground. She is the only winner Michael Chapman has had on the flat this season, 1-21, and she is poorly drawn.

Robyn is a nine race maiden who has never placed.

Mystical Witch is a 16 race maiden who has placed once on the all-weather.

Conclusion: This is usually a race to put a big marker through and move on but such is the record of outside stalls on this ground, Sharp Shoes is worth an interest at 20/1. There is a lack of pacemakers in the race and if Sharp Shoes can get to the front, he may well not come back today. One Kool Dude and Sir Geoffrey look the most likely dangers.
 
Since 2010 Sir Mark Prescott is 28-39 with last-time-out handicap winners reappearing within 7 days. Alwilda goes for him at Ripon (8.10)
 
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I've taken 25/1 about Laser Blazer in the big race at Brighton today.

Two poorish runs require forgiving but he's only a pound higher than when being touched off over C&D in June and may have been targeting this.
 
Haydock 3:10. Visit Copenhagen.

You could view her as badly handicapped based on those placed efforts I suppose, or on the contrary lower in the ratings now than she would be if she'd won those races. In any event I really think if connections reckoned she was bad-off at the weights they'd step her up in grade to get less weight on her back as many a trainer do. In running her again at class 5 level I think Burke has given me a clue :).

Sir Alex Ferguson's horse a N/R and doesn't go.
 
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High Rate said:
Haydock 3:10. Visit Copenhagen.

You could view her as badly handicapped based on those placed efforts I suppose, or on the contrary lower in the ratings now than she would be if she'd won those races. In any event I really think if connections reckoned she was bad-off at the weights they'd step her up in grade to get less weight on her back as many a trainer do. In running her again at class 5 level I think Burke has given me a clue :).

Sir Alex Ferguson's horse a N/R in the 3:10 now and doesn't go.
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3.10 - Haydock
Visit Copenhagen. 2 pts win. Available at 9/1.
Madame Elizabeth. 1 pt win. Available at 18/1.
A three year old Fillies Handicap in which it may be worth taking on the market leaders, Azenzar and Drahem. They are both open to improvement but they will have to if they are to take this and there some viable alternatives. Two of them are the only horses in this field to have run at this track, Visit Copenhagen and Madame Elizabeth. Visit Copenhagen is a six raced maiden but she has run up a consistent sequence this season She was third of five in an all age handicap against her own sex and was beaten just over two lengths by a Filly who has since won a much better race from a six pound higher mark. Prior to that she split two subsequent winners in a field of six at Leicester in June and had Drahem four lengths behind at Yarmouth the following month. She is only two pound worse off today and, although that rival is capable of better, Visit Copenhagen looks worth chancing at three times his rival's price with the yard having a profitable 19% strike rate at this track with their three year olds. Madame Elizabeth is still a maiden after ten starts and finished last of six on her second start of this campaign at Bath, That effort can be overlooked because she was reported lame post race by the vet. She wasn't beaten far in a field of five on her reappearance and that form has been franked by subsequent victories by both the winner and fourth placed horses. She showed some useful for as a Juvenile last season and looks up to winning a race from her current mark.
 
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