What are you backing Today?

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That's easily one of the most bizzare experiences of my punting career. When it jumped out I thought well at least it has a chance!
 
Two No Bids on a good low workable mark in the 6:05. Huge price e/w too.
 
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SlimChance said:
Just realised I've backed the wrong horse. I was suppose to back Two Shades Of Grey. Sometimes my own stupidity amazes me.
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So it should. Even when you're told which horse to back you guess the wrong one.

But congratulations on your good fortune. :)
 
Bev 3:45 - They've tried loads of different headgear on Wild Sauce. Tomorrow he wears the same as his last two runs out. He was starting to look a bit exposed trying to race prominently, its a good sign that the new head gear instigated an excellent run from a hold up position last time. Hopefully he's held up again and his claiming jockey who has ridden him three times, winning once and being placed twice, can pounce fast and late tomorrow.:)
 
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MLMRob said:
MINORITY INTEREST 8.05 NOTTINGHAM

Minority Interest ran well enough in a 0-70 last time to suggest this 0-60 is within his compass. He has been transformed by headgear and has wins in a first time visor and first time blinkers two runs back. In fact his record over 10f in headgear reads, 113, from just 3 races. The form of his third to Shahrazad didn’t look much at the time but the winner has since finished second off 6lbs higher. He beat previous winner Certavi before that and that horse has franked the form by winning again off 4lbs higher. He has a top apprentice booked and is the only front runner in the race. He might take a bit of pegging back.

Lightning Strike is 0-4 over 10f and both her turf wins have come at Brighton. She has raced exclusively at Brighton or on the all weather for the last 12 months. She is 4lbs higher than her last win and she is 0-5 off marks 54-56. Inexperienced jockey as well.

Market Puzzle has placed four times on eight visits to Colwick Park but he is on a losing run of 22 stretching back two years. He run quite well in a 0-55 last time. Noel Garbutt gets on well with him and he should run well without winning.

Action Front won on his racecourse debut back in May 2011 and the closest he has come to repeating the feat was a short head second at Newmarket last month over 8f. He was third to Enriching last time over 8f here. However, he has found 10f stretching him a bit, not placed in two runs, and he can be passed over.

Miss Blink is 11lbs lower than her last win back in 2011. She is 3-9 in class 6 and 4-12 over 10f. 3-6 when those two criteria are combined. So she must hold a major chance off 59 tonight. All four of her wins have come within a month of her latest race. Her yard are very quiet, 0-42 over the last 3 months.

Archelao won a 0-55 last time off 51 and has had a break. He is yet to win on turf, 0-2, but more worrying is that he is 0-11 when returning after a break of a fortnight or more with just one place.

Daniel Thomas is 1-29 on turf with the win back in 2008.

Lea Valley is a 9 race maiden and comes from a yard that is 1-33 since June.

Flash Crash is 0-7 on the flat with just one place.

Iguacu is 2lbs lower than his win at Bath last year. He tends to pick up a race a year and he does have conditions to suit. However, he is 0-13 when returning after a break of a month or more.

Royal Alcor showed nothing on his debut for Gay Kelleway the other day and races off the same mark tonight. He is 0-4 on turf with both his wins coming at Wolverhampton. He is till 3lbs higher than the last win.

Lady Tycoon is a 10 race maiden who has placed once on the all weather.

Excellent News has never placed in 9 races on the flat.

Conclusion: This is not as competitive as the numbers would suggest. Oisin Murphy is a top booking for Minority Interest especially as he has ridden for Tony Forbes a few times, saddles Excellent News. There is no pace and Minority Interest should get his own way up front. He has shown tenacity recently so it will take a good one to pass him. Miss Blink would be a massive danger if Robin Bastiman had been in better form but she should run well.
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Nice one Rob...well reasoned!
 
Well done Rob, not just a well reasoned case but a 3/1 winner and a 14/1 exacta into the bargain.
 
I rated eleven races today and there are only three horses I really fancy.
Salis 4.30 Society Pearl
Yar 5.35 Cape Of Hope
GP 7.25 Tropical Mist (an e/w price)
 
7.15 Kempton-Likelihood @ 7-4 [Betfred] BOG

John Gosden got his horses running well

2nd
 
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In the 9-15 race .........Eager To Bow has the race tailormade for him..lots of pace on from potentially 6 or 7 horses. Has been kept away from Kempton since Nov and tonight races of the same mark of 71 as then. Form over C/D reads well and coincidentally has the same draw 6 as last win. Big bet imo.


great call Rob yesterday
 
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Afsare (3,30) hasn't quite been getting home in the 10f contests he's run in recently,and the drop back to a stiff 1m, with Highland Knight to set a good pace should still allow him to have too much speed for these (providing he goes in the stall, that is).
 
Font 6.30
Old Dreams is a bit more consistent than Princely Hero these days. However, I think PH has the beating of OD in other departments. It's a decent e/w price too.
:thumbsup:
 
For what it's worth Nick Gifford is 8/33 with his handicap chasers at Fontwell in the last 5 seasons, not a bad percentage.
 
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I'll be watching that one with interest Vulgaris, good luck.

I fancy a couple at Newmarket today.

4:20 I reckon 7F is just right for Fils Angels (NAP), and am happy to go against the main two with this horse who has a few more runs under his belt and more experience. If the pace is right for the horse he'll go close, I can't predict the pace but I'll take the chance.

5:25 Flash City looks the value in the race, based on a 2nd in August 2012 at this track last season. He had Macdillon behind that day in third place who is half the price of Flash City today, so the latter is the bet at the prices. I'm hoping that race last year will show up again today form-wise but we'll see. :)
 
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Breaking Bits 5.30 Font 5/2 - Fancy it to beat a flaky favourite in a two horse race.

Gordon Lord Byron 7.25 Leop 9/4 - Another two horse race, can see him swamping the fav in the last furlong here.
 
Afsare looks vulnerable to me. He'll have to be at his very best over a trip he hasn't contested for some time.

I reckon it's a toss-up between the two 3yos and Professor is the better price so the coin has landed in favour of him.
 
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