What are you backing Today?

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I solved the Ideology problem by having the modest bet I intended on him on the first winner at Gowran.I have also jumped ship and had a very modest bet Credit Swop.
My ongoing dispute with Betfair has saved me from a sizeable lay on Frawley.
Some days you can just be pure lucky.
 
Alanza in the Sun Chariot. I've been very impressed with her and she has a proper turn of foot. When Oxx sends one over it is never without just cause.

I also expect Music Show to run a big race. Her form figures at Newmarket on Gd or better are 111.

Those two and the favourite to fill the front three.
 
Half expecting a poor ride from Lemaire. He needs to keep tabs on whoever leads. Respect the Oxx filly but that Donny race was gash.
 
Euronymous said:
Sahpresa in the Sun Chariot. Pretty much the only Group 1 performer in the field. Got 9/4 when she should be 11/8.

Cry Fury and Man of Action in the Cambridgeshire.
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Was in Jessica Harringtons this am with the sage and absolute gent that is Grey and we can to the same conclusion! French horses racing in the UK are almost always overpriced. She did that easily!!
 
LUKE said:
I solved the Ideology problem by having the modest bet I intended on him on the first winner at Gowran.I have also jumped ship and had a very modest bet Credit Swop.
My ongoing dispute with Betfair has saved me from a sizeable lay on Frawley.
Some days you can just be pure lucky.
Click to expand...
My ideology suggests that I should be selling your stock if the Pricewise selection goes in unbacked by yourself.
 
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Frankie giving a good impression of a seven pound claimer on MoA. Just goes to show that with Flat racing the man aboard makes absolutely no fucking difference.
 
I don't particularly like the fav Yasir in the 5.25 at Ripon...not great form and a lot being made of hard luck lto..interestingly the main danger is Eagle Rock..trained by T Tate..i like watching small trainers after they win big races..this one looks a classic example.

think fav is also vulnerable in 5.35..Tmaam looks real good value

might as well throw in one bet tonight...Regal Lady in the 6.20

good luck...not having much mesen :)
 
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Striking Spirit. 5.00 New. Is weigh below last winning mark and at anywhere near his best is better than mostb of these. Wins have come on the ground and at 25/1 is worth a punt especially witha full pocket courtesy of Roddy.

4th and a Betfair place.
 
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On The Bridle said:
Was in Jessica Harringtons this am with the sage and absolute gent that is Grey and we can to the same conclusion! French horses racing in the UK are almost always overpriced. She did that easily!!
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What has been at JHs got to do with you comng to agreement with Grey? Or are you just lookng for a pst to say you were there - start a new topic!

Any stats on that French horses point? I would bet strongly its the other way ..
 
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I just deleted the last six posts on this thread. If anyone can make a compelling case for why they or any of their ilk should still be here, PM me.
 
OTB made the point that the winner today (who happened to be French trained) had the only solid group one form in the race and suggested she was probably overpriced because she was French trained. Now horse racing analysis and punditary is riddled with well worn cliches. Everyone gets sucked into using them. So to come on asking OTB to produce stats was both pedantic and also stirring the pot.
 
I think its possible in the past that French or German horses were bigger than they should be..but in the age we are now in its unlikely that many horses slip under the radar...which in the past has probably been the cause of bigger prices.

You could say Italian horses can go off longer than they should..one earlier n the season that got placed in the Lockinge i seem to remember

its like everything else though..we only tend to remember the good runs..those that don't run well are harder to remember;)
 
EC1 said:
I think its possible in the past that French or German horses were bigger than they should be..but in the age we are now in its unlikely that many horses slip under the radar...which in the past has probably been the cause of bigger prices.
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Indeed, it definitely used to be the case but I think the recent exploits of some of the French stars have put an end to every French horse being overpriced. I now don't think you could back them all blindly and show a profit, I reckon you could 4 or 5 years ago. As with all things in this game, it's really about each individual horse's chance in each individual race and French form is well documented so it is less likely that the price will be wrong, you'll still get the odd one like Wizz Kid in The Nunthorpe at antepost prices and when Sahpresa won the Sun Chariot in 2009 (Was 4th to Goldikova 2 runs before and was 25/1 in morning).

I see more value in runners from further afield now where the form is less known (SYT aside!). I still maintain my best losing bet I've ever had was the HK trained Sweet Sanette in the Kings Stand this year at 33s antepost and I continued to back her at 16s on the day. Indeed, those who spotted Wes Ward's runners at Ascot in 2009 were rewarded well (I never got involved sadly despite the work Warbler put on over on OHR), the form was totally unknown to UK punters and as such they were ignored in the betting. I'd argue now that the pendulum has swung the other way and it's possible that they're now underpriced.
 
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