What are you backing Today?

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Straight in with a nice little winner there, SC, well done.

I know next to nothing about NH racing, but devised a little system based on course winners that kept me amused a few years ago. Todays only selection would have been Upton Mead in the 2:50. I'll start a separate thread for them as I'll not be backing them, and hope it finishes second to Badb Catha instead. More than halved in price I notice.

Good luck with the others.
 
Roger Curtis looked surprised when told there has been a minor morning nibble for outsider Badb Catha, but he says all of his are on their way back to form after suffering a herpes virus.
He fears she might not get home, however.
By the way, she now carries mauve and green colours
By Graham Dench, live from Plumpton 5 mins ago
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Thanks Doomster - she can't get any lower in the weights and still run so would be hoping they'd be having a bash today.
 
5.00 Windsor

A lot of pace on here which will suit last years 2nd in this race..Shawkantango..races off 1b lower mark than last year..15.0 at the moment
 
MLMRob said:
TOTO SKYLLACHY 5.10 PONTEFRACT

Toto Skyllachy was beaten some 14ls in a 0-90 last time and 15ls in a 0-85 the time before which could mean he has had enough for the season. However, he was beaten just 1.3lsin a 0-85 carrying 9-10 on his third last run that gives him a leading chance here. He run a cracker that day as he reared as the stalls opened and still managed to poke his head in front in the final furlong only to get mugged close home. The winner of that race Swiftly Done has come out and run a cracker in a 0-95 the other day beaten about 2ls off 5lbs higher. Six of Toto Skyllachy’s eight wins have come on a stiff track. Danny Tudhope’s record on him reads; 6124253323611039. When racing in class 4 that improves to 12221139. On a stiff track it improves again to; 12211.

Headline News is the likely jolly after winning a 0-80 last time. She is up to 0-85 and carries 2lbs more physical weight off a 10lbs higher mark. She is now 14lbs higher than her win at Leicester in a 0-75 but she is clearly thriving at present. The stable have gone 15 runners without a winner over the last 18 days and Rae Guest is 0-9 in handicaps at Pontefract.

Artful Prince has gone from 48 to 76 in the last three months. He was beaten 10ls in a 0-75 last time. He was headed at the 2f marker so the drop back to 10f will be in his favour, 3-4 over 10f. However, he is 7lbs higher than he was for his last win in class 6, he is drawn on the M62 and James Given is 1-28 in the last month. Artful Prince is yet to race in this class.

Arc Light won over course and distance in July in a 0-75 off 70 and will be of interest off 1lb higher carrying 8lbs less weight. However, he is 0-6 in 0-85 never placing.

Asgardella won her debut maiden on good to firm last year and has now gone ten races without troubling the judge. She ran ok in a 0-85 last time off 79 to suggest this might be within her range off 3lbs lower and 4lbs less physical weight. She has never placed in three races over 10f though being by Duke Of Marmalade she should stay. I’m not sure his progeny relish cut nor do they like stiff tracks, 4-96.

Musnad looks like he is having a sharpener before embarking on a novice chase campaign. He is 1-23 on the flat, the win off 71 at Musselburgh last year. Musnad is 0-8, never placing after a break off 30 days or more and is 0-4 on soft ground, never placing. He is 0-6 on a stiff track. De Sousa looks a significant booking with a 27% strike for the yard.

Life And Times is an unexposed Mark Johnston 5yo who must have had problems judging by the amount of runs he has had. He could improve for the step up to 10f but breeding suggests this distance is right on the limit of his stamina.
San Cassiano is 0-6 on good to soft or slower and 1-19 going left handed. He has raced off 80 six times this season and unplaced in them all.

Hydrant is 0-8 in 0-85.

Venutius is still finding his way at Phil Kirby’s and will improve in time. He is 0-12 on undulating tracks.

Conclusion: Silvestre De Sousa is 12-31 at Pontefract this season and he has 7 rides today. Musnad could run well under his guidance but I prefer the chance of Toto Skyllachy who is tactically adept and is a big price here considering the opposition. He won over 0.5f shorter at Carlisle in a claimer earlier in the summer so he should stay this 10f and the ground won’t bother him. He is very well handicapped and has won in this grade and he should repay each way support.
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Impressively thorough reasoning MLMRob. It's my kind of price so I'm following you in.
 
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CPGagie said:
Straight in with a nice little winner there, SC, well done.

I know next to nothing about NH racing, but devised a little system based on course winners that kept me amused a few years ago. Todays only selection would have been Upton Mead in the 2:50. I'll start a separate thread for them as I'll not be backing them, and hope it finishes second to Badb Catha instead. More than halved in price I notice.

Good luck with the others.
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I hope you dutched them
 
5.00 Windsor

A lot of pace on here which will suit last years 2nd in this race..Shawkantango..races off 1b lower mark than last year..15.0 at the moment
Today 2:45 PM
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I got the race completely wrong and won money. I was certain they would go far side.
 
Lovely, Bolero. I looked earlier, but couldn't work out why you thought it would relish the conditions? Had you noted it's action previously? Great stuff anyway, well done.
 
Cheers guys!

(CPGagie: No, to be honest I certainly had not noticed the mare's action in previous races. She is very lightly-raced, but I did note on breeding she would stay every inch of today's distance, i.e. sire Flemensfirth (by Alleged) and damsire Bonny Scot (by Commanche Run, a son of Run The Gantlet out of a Shirley Heights mare), so her breeding is stamina-packed with dads and grandads who, without exception, showed a liking for cut in the ground, without it being too heavy. Heck, it's easy to be wise after the event, and I really do not mean to be, but you've got to have a bit of luck in this game sometimes, and today things worked out, for a change!).
 
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Bolero said:
Cheers guys!

(CPGagie: No, to be honest I certainly had not noticed the mare's action in previous races. She is very lightly-raced, but I did note on breeding she would stay every inch of today's distance, i.e. sire Flemensfirth (by Alleged) and damsire Bonny Scot (by Commanche Run, a son of Run The Gantlet out of a Shirley Heights mare), so her breeding is stamina-packed with dads and grandads who, without exception, showed a liking for cut in the ground, without it being too heavy. Heck, it's easy to be wise after the event, and I really do not mean to be, but you've got to have a bit of luck in this game sometimes, and today things worked out, for a change!).
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There was also a nice form line from the race where he pulled up behind xaacet - Just Cloudy was also pulled up in that race and Hopatina was running a better race than Just Cloudy and was 8lb better off today. The xaarcet race is proving useful as a few have come out and won including at least 3 that P.U.(including Just Cloudy) in the race - so not as big a surprise as the results look. I wouldn't have even spotted this is if it wasn't for the fact you posted Bolero - Thanks.
 
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I see, breeding. I can only look at that with Flat racing, and I'm not even sure what I'm looking at then. :)

You're right about hindsight. I was looking at Rambo Will (Windsor 5:00 winner) after the race. 3 runs in better class races at Windsor last year, dropped in class and down to 64. Arguably a better trip today in the conditions when looking how the races were run last year. Jock OK at course and gets on well with horse. The writing was on the wall, albeit, faintly, but it was there to see. As you say, it's easy after the event.

You got in prior though, and thats what counts. Enjoy your night out.
 
Bolero said:
Had a bit e/w at 20/1 on Hopatina in the 17:20 at Plumpton. The mare has not been out for 247-days but, if fit, could go well and will relish the soft-ground conditions
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Absolutely superb Bolero. Hoped you enjoyed your evening.
 
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