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CALAF 2.50 CATTERICK


Paul Pickard is 5-15 for Brian Ellison round here and 3-6 this season with a further two placed. Calaf’s form when a 2.3ls fourth to Area Fifty One in a 0-100 at Chester in June off a mark of 84 is the stand out form on offer here. Area Fifty One went on to run with credit in Group races. Second was Forgotten Hero who has won a 0-105. Third was Haylaman who has won a 0-90. Toto Skyllachy and Fennell Bay were behind him and they have both won races since. He is just 1lb higher than when he won at Ayr a year ago. He has won on the ground, over the distance but more importantly all four wins have come in single figure fields and three of his four wins have come in class 4. His record in single figure fields and class 4 reads 3-5.
 
Having some fun with horses I think will act in very soft ground. 5pts win or 2.5pts e/way

1.30 Copper Birch 11/10 win
1.40 Itsnowcato 12/1 e/way
2.10 Barwick 13/2 e/way
2.40 Syrian Pearl 7/1 e/way
3.00 Ifyouthinkso 14/1 e/way
3.30 Bob Ford 7/1 win
3.40 Mountain Range 25/1 e/way
4.00 Mr Robinson 7/1 win
4.30 Uncle Tone 5/1 e/way
 
MLMRob said:
CALAF 2.50 CATTERICK


Paul Pickard is 5-15 for Brian Ellison round here and 3-6 this season with a further two placed. Calaf’s form when a 2.3ls fourth to Area Fifty One in a 0-100 at Chester in June off a mark of 84 is the stand out form on offer here. Area Fifty One went on to run with credit in Group races. Second was Forgotten Hero who has won a 0-105. Third was Haylaman who has won a 0-90. Toto Skyllachy and Fennell Bay were behind him and they have both won races since. He is just 1lb higher than when he won at Ayr a year ago. He has won on the ground, over the distance but more importantly all four wins have come in single figure fields and three of his four wins have come in class 4. His record in single figure fields and class 4 reads 3-5.
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Gold. Absolute gold. Well done Rob, you are some judge mate.
 
Missed it. Fell asleep while watching a documentary on telepathy and still didn't pick up on it.

Well done, Rob. Fantastic shout.
 
Wolver 6.10 Breccbanach.

Looks a drifter, having taken 8.4 it's continued to move but I think he's a decent price to upset the fav. Fair form on p/t with Oxx, although he does carry more today than his turf mark, which I hope is justified.

Very consistent lately, Baker for Durack is fine, as is the step back to 7f.

Living The Life may well go in again but is too short for me. Beaten @ 1.02 in running, could well be a 90 horse, but really got the run of the race at Leicester, turned over nto off the same mark(plus claim), but was impressive lto.


Dawn Calling's trainer is in dire form.

Profile of Ruwaiyan looks like connection are guessing what his best conditions are and reliant on the c/p's.
 
a whopping call Rob..superb...you getting near that crown of Slim's;)

One bet tonight....Earthflight in a weak nursery..6.40 race

..the fav Byron Gala isn't well handicapped on my figures to suggest should be so short..May Whi looks about right mark too and has to go further...also a couple here like making the pace which will count against this one

the pace will play into the hands of Earthflight who won last time in a race that wouldn't have suited pacewise as much as tonights will..so can overcome the weight rise..6.4 at the moment
 
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Poor 4th , with a few backers getting stung by the "Baker cruise", hitting evens in running and 1.01 in the place market.

Dawn Calling was backed into 7/2, probably on the back of Showboating & Llewelyn runs today, but like money Johnson runners, failed to place.
 
MLMRob said:
CALAF 2.50 CATTERICK


Paul Pickard is 5-15 for Brian Ellison round here and 3-6 this season with a further two placed. Calaf’s form when a 2.3ls fourth to Area Fifty One in a 0-100 at Chester in June off a mark of 84 is the stand out form on offer here. Area Fifty One went on to run with credit in Group races. Second was Forgotten Hero who has won a 0-105. Third was Haylaman who has won a 0-90. Toto Skyllachy and Fennell Bay were behind him and they have both won races since. He is just 1lb higher than when he won at Ayr a year ago. He has won on the ground, over the distance but more importantly all four wins have come in single figure fields and three of his four wins have come in class 4. His record in single figure fields and class 4 reads 3-5.
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Much obliged Rob , was on at 9/1:cool: Got the result while I was at the cinema with the kids, "Turbo" the fastest snail on the planet:lol::lol:
 
DUSKY BOB 2.40 CARLISLE

Today might be the day to catch Dusky Bob. He has won after a break before and since he has been with Brian Ellison he has improved some 22lbs. The key is undulating tracks from which four of his five wins have been achieved. His record under Ellison’s care on undulating tracks reads 3-7 with a further two places. That improves to 3-4 when ridden by Danny Cook, 3-3 at single figure odds. Dusky Bob has won over 26f here in heavy ground so he will stay this test. He has to defy a career high mark but the cheekpieces appear to have improved him again. There are enough negatives about his rivals to suggest he is worthy of support today.

The McCoy/O Neill bandwagon steams into Carlisle and with their last four horses all winning, Full Of Joy is sure to be popular. Full Of Joy is 0-6 going right handed though he has won at figure of eight Fontwell. I have doubts whether he will stay this 24.5f. He has won over 24f at Bangor but I feel this may well be beyond him.

My Boy Paddy has run here three times and lost all three. He has run in class 3 four times and lost all four and he has never won a race outside a month of his last run, 0-8. He made his seasonal debut on this track last season and finished fifth beaten 23ls.

Chac Du Cadran will probably need this, 0-3 after a break of 60 days or more. It is three years since Chris Bealby had one ready first time out in the autumn, 0-23. He had a gap of two years before that winner too so it is likely Chac Du Cadran will need this.

Papamoa is another who will be better for the run today. He is 0-6 after a breakoff 120 days or more. He is 4lbs lower than when presented with a race at Newcastle. Zaru was 16ls clear when falling at the last, The Friary fell at the second last in that race otherwise Papamoa would have finished third. His record on his seasonal debut is 546.

Incentivise has won on his seasonal debut twice in the last three years. He is 6lbs higher than his last win and his record off marks of 114 or above reads 0-13, 0-5 off marks 114-119.

Ultra De Chatelet was made favourite last time at Hexham but found the 20f a bit quick for him. The step up the 24f should suit as Network’s progeny do well at this distance. He is a half brother to Quinte De Chatelet whose best distance was 20f-22f and the race he won at Pau was over 20f. He could run well.

Mohi Rahrere is 0-6 going right handed and has avoided stiff tracks. He was Barry Leavy’s last winner in April and he has never had a horse placed from five runners at Carlisle. However, Mohi Rahrere has won when fresh but he is going the wrong way round.

Sun Cloud has his second chase after unseating on his chasing debut. He is 0-7 going right handed.

Conclusion: A lot of these are going to need the run today and the likely jolly, Full Of Joy jumped woefully last time, out to the left sometimes which will lose lengths round here. Dusky Bob comes from a yard that has a 20% strike rate in handicap chases, has won on his seasonal debut and has his ideal conditions.
 
KIELTYS FOLLY 5.30 KEMPTON (EACH WAY)

Kieltys Folly is a dodgepot but this race is full of them. He always travels first class but seldom delivers. However, there are some strong reasons to support him today. Jim Crowley is back on board after steering him into the winners’ enclosure two runs back. He is 3-11 over this course and distance which improves to 3-8 when racing in 0-60. He beat Sonnetation 1l two runs back and is 2lbs worse off tonight but he had Sonnetation at arms length. The draw favours Kieltys Folly tonight, it didn’t two runs back. The third that day was I’m Harry who has gone on to beat Legal Legacy and on a line through I’m Harry, Legal Legacy can’t beat Kieltys Folly. Fifth home was Arabian Flight who went on to beat Hail Promenader and a line through Arabian Flight suggests Hail Promenader can’t beat Kieltys Folly.

Hail Promenader is 0-10 going right handed, 0-4 here.
Minimee is 0-4 going right handed, 0-3 here never placing.
Legal Legacy is 0-11 at Kempton.
Cativo Cavellino is 0-4, never placed, when returning after a break of 120 days or more.
Minstrel Lad is 0-7 here.
Lightning Spirit is 4lbs better off for 4ls from the race two runs back but he has a terrible draw.
Rock Anthem is 0-16 at Kempton.
Percythepinto is 0-5 at Kempton, never placed.
Last Supper is a 13 race maiden whose best form is on soft ground.
Actonetaketwo is 0-3 at Kempton and 0-3 over 8f and is still 5lbs above the mark she won her only race off.
Stoneacre Oskar has never placed in 5 races on the all weather. He was this yard’s last winner on August 3rd. Currently on a losing run of 34.

Conclusion: It is interesting that Brian Baugh has secured the services of Jim Crowley as he won Kieltys Folly two runs back. The horse has won off 57 so 53 shouldn’t be a problem. He is not one to follow over a cliff but the 8/1 available this morning makes him an inviting each way shout. Sonnetation looks the main danger.
 
1.20 Lingfield

My Target got away with setting really soft fractions at Lingfield last time, and though finishing third, was probably no better than fifth or sixth best in that race, I want to be against him.

Zerfaal a bit of a worry as he was sent off only 2/1 for a Newbury maiden, but think 2s is a bit big on Three Cliffs who did well against the run of the race at Kempton, where he missed the break and was forced wide. Would make the first 2 in the betting more like 6/4 and 3/1 than current 2/1 and 9/4.
 
Sedgefield

1.00 Dispour - 10pts win 11/10
timeform
€175,000 purchase off back of Flat win in France. Odds-on and only workmanlike when getting the job done on hurdling debut at Bangor, but will leave that level behind. Hard to beat
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2.00 One In A Milan - 10pts win 5/2
Trainer says, "I'm sure he can win off this rating, which will get him into a nice h'cap with a light weight."
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2.30 - 2pts e/way each & 1pt r/f/c
Timesawastin 5/1- "He could be dangerous off his present mark if running to his best and I've been pleased with his schooling."

King Of The Wolds 7/1 - "We Bought him as a foal and have been very patient looking after him as he has developed and strengthened. Now he has grown into his frame he is developing into a decent horse and he'll be winning again before long."
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4.00 - 2pts comb f/c's
Classic Move - "Formerley trained by Don Cantillon and made his racecourse debut in a hot looking bumper at Leopardstown's Chistmas meeting, where he finished third behind the well regarded Willie Mullins Moyle Park. This is a good level of form."

Serenity Now - "He ran a smashing race to be third at Wetherby where he was the only one to make a race of it and as a result he got run out of second. He looks much stronger now and he will win a bumper this season."

Our Boy Ben - "Another half brother to according To Pete. He likes an out and out gallop and worked well last week and could go to Sedgefield this week."
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Clonmel 1.25 County Champions 5/1 - 5pts e/way - personal fancy
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Stratford 4.10 Andy Kelly 5/2 - 20pts win - "He has a good pedigree and will start off in a 2 1/2m novice hurdle (4th btn 4L) hopefully will find a suitable opportunity in a maiden hurdle." Been given the nod for this one today.
 
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lingfield. 4.20 Bassett Road @ 4.3
Wordismybond @ 5.0

BR's trainer does not send many here but has a healthy 26% SR here, won this race last year and looks to have booked one of the best jocks.

Wordismybond really should be in the shake up, but Joey Haynes has a poor record at the track.

I tried to make a case for Gebayl, with Shelly Birkett on board, but really could not find a case for the horse.

Rather than dutch the pair,Iv'e staked with BR showing my biggest winner with the latter just showing a 25% of the profit.
 
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