DUSKY BOB 2.40 CARLISLE
Today might be the day to catch Dusky Bob. He has won after a break before and since he has been with Brian Ellison he has improved some 22lbs. The key is undulating tracks from which four of his five wins have been achieved. His record under Ellison’s care on undulating tracks reads 3-7 with a further two places. That improves to 3-4 when ridden by Danny Cook, 3-3 at single figure odds. Dusky Bob has won over 26f here in heavy ground so he will stay this test. He has to defy a career high mark but the cheekpieces appear to have improved him again. There are enough negatives about his rivals to suggest he is worthy of support today.
The McCoy/O Neill bandwagon steams into Carlisle and with their last four horses all winning, Full Of Joy is sure to be popular. Full Of Joy is 0-6 going right handed though he has won at figure of eight Fontwell. I have doubts whether he will stay this 24.5f. He has won over 24f at Bangor but I feel this may well be beyond him.
My Boy Paddy has run here three times and lost all three. He has run in class 3 four times and lost all four and he has never won a race outside a month of his last run, 0-8. He made his seasonal debut on this track last season and finished fifth beaten 23ls.
Chac Du Cadran will probably need this, 0-3 after a break of 60 days or more. It is three years since Chris Bealby had one ready first time out in the autumn, 0-23. He had a gap of two years before that winner too so it is likely Chac Du Cadran will need this.
Papamoa is another who will be better for the run today. He is 0-6 after a breakoff 120 days or more. He is 4lbs lower than when presented with a race at Newcastle. Zaru was 16ls clear when falling at the last, The Friary fell at the second last in that race otherwise Papamoa would have finished third. His record on his seasonal debut is 546.
Incentivise has won on his seasonal debut twice in the last three years. He is 6lbs higher than his last win and his record off marks of 114 or above reads 0-13, 0-5 off marks 114-119.
Ultra De Chatelet was made favourite last time at Hexham but found the 20f a bit quick for him. The step up the 24f should suit as Network’s progeny do well at this distance. He is a half brother to Quinte De Chatelet whose best distance was 20f-22f and the race he won at Pau was over 20f. He could run well.
Mohi Rahrere is 0-6 going right handed and has avoided stiff tracks. He was Barry Leavy’s last winner in April and he has never had a horse placed from five runners at Carlisle. However, Mohi Rahrere has won when fresh but he is going the wrong way round.
Sun Cloud has his second chase after unseating on his chasing debut. He is 0-7 going right handed.
Conclusion: A lot of these are going to need the run today and the likely jolly, Full Of Joy jumped woefully last time, out to the left sometimes which will lose lengths round here. Dusky Bob comes from a yard that has a 20% strike rate in handicap chases, has won on his seasonal debut and has his ideal conditions.
