ROSENEATH 1.50 MARKET RASEN
Roseneath has his quirks but he looks something to bet on in a race full of dodgepots. He won a 0-100 in the summer off a mark of 92.Two horses have come out and subsequently won from that race, a 0-110 and a 0-105. He is still well handicapped on the form he showed when winning round here off 110 three years ago. Is he still the same horse, it’s debatable but he is lightly raced since then. He started 2012 off a mark of 121 and 2013 off a mark of 115. His record in 0-110 or less reads 3-10. However, that improves to 3-3 when he has to carry 7lbs or more less than the top weight. He is 4-12 going right handed and 2-4 in races with 7 or less runners, 2-3 when combined. Alex Hales is 3-9 in handicap chases at Market Rasen and Noel Fehily is 3-9 for the yard.
Riptide is very short for what he has achieved. A winner of a poor Novice Chase two years ago he moved to Michael Scudamore shortly afterwards and has been campaigned on the flat and hurdles. He is well handicapped on his hurdles mark. However, he has never placed in six races going right handed and comes from a yard with a record of 1-43 at Market Rasen, that winner was in 2007.
Thorncliffer won a 0-100 a year ago off 74. He usually runs in lower class races than this and he is very ordinary. Though he has a 6l second at Huntingdon in his file he is 0-6 going right handed. Derek Shaw is 0-36 at Market Rasen and his record of 2-149 under National Hunt rules is poor.
Very Stylish will have his supporters but he is 0-9 going right handed, never placing. He doesn’t look a winter horse with all his wins coming between June and October. In his previous two chases at Market Rasen he was pulled up and beaten 55ls. Jonjo won this race two years ago with Canal Bank and with Very Stylish being by Winged Love, he clearly feels the horse will stay. O Neill and McCoy are 20-90 in handicap chases here.
Moon Melody is 0-16 on soft or heavy ground and is 0-14 at Market Rasen. He is 6lbs higher than his last chase win which was the worst race Sedgefield has seen for many a year. He is 0-9 in races with an average OR of 82 or more, one place. He has never placed in a race with an average OR of 88 or more.
Acrai Rua won a 0-120 off 103 in April and is 2lbs higher here. He has only completed once since then from 5 races and he was beaten 67ls. He is 0-5 on soft or heavy ground and has never placed in three races wearing cheekpieces. He does stay.
Conclusion: A woeful race but if Roseneath puts his best foot forward he may well take a bit of beating. He can plod around in his own time at the back and pick these off one by one. It will be attritional but he ticks the most boxes. Very Stylish could run a lot better than he has recently rates the danger. Market Rasen is subject to an 11.30 inspection due to forecast high winds and if they arrive it may well be off.
Rob.
