What are you backing Today?

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MYSTERY BET 2.30 SOUTHWELL

Richard Fahey does well with his 4yos in handicaps in January at Southwell. In the last three years he has sent just 10 runners with 5 of those winning. That improves to 3-3 when they’re in the first four of the betting. Four of the five winners were unplaced on their latest run and the odd one out was actually winning its second race at Southwell in January.
Mystery Bet was second to Epic Battle in November and that horse has won again plus he was third to String Theory off 7lbs higher in a 0-95 in December. Mystery Bet meets nothing of that calibre today. Mystery Bet is by Kheleyf so she should handle the fibresand and she is taken to further enhance her trainer’s record in January here.

Fair Trade has his first run for Alan Swinbank after arriving from Alan King. Swinbank is 6-109 with other peoples cast offs and it is 6 years and 45 runners since he saddled a winner.

Both Honoured and Love U Whatever have to defy career high marks.
Love U Whatever is up in class though is 3-4 here but beaten out of sight in his only run in class 4.
Honoured is 0-5 in class 4.
Absent Amy is 0-5 in 0-75 and has never run in a 0-80. She is 0-4 off marks in the 70s.
My History has a maiden seller win to his name and was beaten 21lks last time out. Yet to get any nearer than 8ls in a handicap a drop in class is desperately needed.

Conclusion: Mystery Bet beat Lancelot Du Lac and You Da One as a 2yo. Considering what those two horses have achieved in 2013 it looks like smart form. Mystery Bet has pieces of form right throughout 2013 that gives her a huge chance today. Given Fahey’s record in January, she is worth supporting.
 
Stephen Arnold took 21 horses from Violet Jordan and sent them to Ann Stokell who until recently only had 9 boxes registered. I think all the horses are leased now, must be a loophole as he still owns them.
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So effectively no punishment. Cheers Rob.

Wolver 4.30 Burren View Lady @ 5.8
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this should trade shorter in running unless there are a change of tactics with Angels Pursuit, who could be anything off a break but is untried on slow ground.

The differential in price with Fat gary looks too big IMO, considering BVL has two decent runs on slow and FG got turnover on slow at 6/4.

BVL should get a lead and a pitch off the rail, is gutsy and just looks over priced.
 
Thanks Baldeagle.

Got the price and run style all wrong, but still got the win.

What do I know :confused:
 
A win is a WIN was hammered at the off 5s to3s
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I couldn't have believed that. I was looking at the exchange odds and it came into 4.6 after I posted then drifted out to 9.2 in £400 chunks, then came in again to bf sp of 6.89.
 
CPGagie said:
No good yesterday, at all. Could have got closer if not for coming wide off the bend, and if jockey had made more of an effort, but no way would have won. I suspect the slower surface didn't help.

I've ended up looking in the gutter today.

WOLVES 6:30 DANIEL THOMAS caught my eye, and I've been pondering over a bet for age's. The slower surface should help and running off only 47. My concern is that it is now with Ann Stokell, though her 2 winners in the last 5 years have both been at Wolves with older horses, and everything else would suggest a decent run is likely.



y.
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doomster said:
So effectively no punishment. Cheers Rob.



this should trade shorter in running unless there are a change of tactics with Angels Pursuit, who could be anything off a break but is untried on slow ground.

The differential in price with Fat gary looks too big IMO, considering BVL has two decent runs on slow and FG got turnover on slow at 6/4.

BVL should get a lead and a pitch off the rail, is gutsy and just looks over priced.
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Brilliant Doomster. Once Duern didn't make Wolverhampton her chance was further enhanced.
 
LINGFIELD

2:00 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
Has won over further, usually comes from behind. If this race had a load of front runners I would fancy them to burn One Way Or Another off but the race is predominately made up of hold up horses and there's none with better proven hold up form than this horse.

2:35 KASHMIR PEAK
I'm hopeful his trainer has him well prepared for his first all weather encounter. He can take the beating with the first time blinkers to sharpen him up.

3:10 NAABEGHA
Recently changed yards but in peak form after winning a claimer, no hike in the weights though, therefore value at around 9/1.

Good Luck with whatever you do.:ninja:
 
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Well done Chris.

Hope you did back it.

I went out at 4.45 and it was out to 9/1, but I can't check if it went out any further.
 
Well done yourself. :) I did back it in the end, as I was running late to go out. Got on for a little under half stakes EW, but took 5/1. Had a good night out as well, what a laugh. :)

I've got nothing for today.
 
Lingfield 2.00. Bussa @ 20/1 BOG
Parisian Pyramid. saver @ 8.6

I really didn't want to be getting involved in these Lingfield races, but the price of Bussa has taken my eye.

Presumidio will probably be well supported at 5/1 and I was tempted. Unraced at two, consistent over trip and lightly raced. My problem is the track was riding fast when he won and even if the track rides on the fast side that will also suit Bussa.

My perception was Evans farmed these races at this time of year, but was totally wrong although they do place well.

However, Bussa looks worth an interest returning to this track, were his corse h/cap form reads: 1(53) ,1 (59),2(59).

Returns to the track on a mark 57, which looks a cracking mark considering he probably peaked with a run over 7f at Lingfield off 70, with a decent 5lb claimer riding.

The doubts surrounding the bet are possibly trip on the short side, jockey preference and current form.

There should hopefully be enough pace in this if the likes of Putin and Idol Curiosity takes each other on. Catlin has only just started to get rides again for the trainer and really cannot read much into the fact he rode a winner for him yesterday, so I'd expect Kirby to have the choice until I realised he hasn't done 8-13 for a long time. He has done 9-0, but I'm guessing the weight factor has decided the bookings. I'm happy to take a punt on form improvement, returning to track and having been ridden by a 7lb claimer yet to ride a winner here and had little chance over 5f lto.

Pyrisian Pyramid looks in terminal decline, but his last run held some promise as it was off a lay off and the first run for Fahey. It would be no surprise to see him winning off marks in the 70's, so got to have a saver on him off 63, although he may well be in decline at the age of 8, but worth a chance moving from Morris to Fahey.
 
Well done yourself. I did back it in the end, as I was running late to go out. Got on for a little under half stakes EW, but took 5/1. Had a good night out as well, what a laugh.
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Good news. I was going to take another look at it until the time for the first race was given as 60.00, so that confused me even more. The dick head actually reported the std and not the actual time.
 
Had a slight change of heart.

LING 2:00 DISHY GURU EW 16/1
Joyus looks likely, after running on LTO, and is open to improvement.
Dishy Guru off 57 is tempting as an EW option, as the yard seems in decent shape. Luke Morris knows the horse well enough also.
Agree with Doomster on Bussa as well, as has shown a liking for Lingfield. I slightly prefer the look of Dishy Guru though at the prices. Sorry, Doomster. :)

A bit less than half stakes EW again for me today.

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LING 1:25 SHINING STAR
Could run better than odds suggest, as did well LTO considering the pace. Has gone 'OK' fresh before as well. Stall 14 is a pig though, and on that note alone I'm only a spectator having earlier considered an EW dabble. Interesting though.


Pub beckons. :)
 
Newcastle is going to be attritional today but one horse who has perfect race conditions is Dingo Bay in the 2:50.

Twice a course winner in heavy ground, with his best performance coming at todays trip. He is a stone higher in the weights than that day but only 6lbs higher than his last win 3 races ago when he tired during the extra half mile but still hung on.

He was making a race of it against a subsequent 110 rated winner LTO, albeit in receipt of 11lb (when 3lb wrong) and looking booked for 2nd when departing 2 out.

But that race was on quicker ground than he prefers and dropped back 4f on his favoured ground he must go well if over his latest fall.

5/2 won't make you rich but dangers look thin on the ground.
 
Oh dear, another one for the 2.00. Hopefully one of us correct.

PRESUMIDO 2.00 LINGFIELD

Presumido has had a break since his last run but the 5lbs penalty he collected for beating Gregori doesn’t look enough to stop him. Gregori has since won twice off 2lbs and 8lbs higher, won a 0-70 off 8lbs higher, and he run his best race when a close fourth in a 0-85 last time, 15lbs higher than when second to Presumido. Presumido had Thorpe Bay back in seventh who has also won twice, the latest a 0-75 off 6lbs higher. The sixth home has also won a race.

Joyous was second to Welease Bwian in a 0-65 in December and is 3lbs higher. Fourth home Perfect Venture has franked the form. He has been slow away in four of his five races. Dean Ivory is 0-16 over the last month. He has a 6% strike rate with 4yo maidens running in handicaps, 5-80, 0-19 on the polytrack at Lingfield.

Parisian Pyramid has his second run for Richard Fahey after running well at Wolverhampton in a 0-65 off 1lb lower. It is 30 months since he won and he has never won on the all weather, though he has finished second twice beaten a head on this track over 6f. Rated 99 in his pomp if Fahey can get him back anywhere within 20lbs of that mark he will sluice up. However, he just looks like a regressive individual. His dam is yet to have a winner at Lingfield, 0-10.

Spellmaker has won twice both over 6f. He is on a career high mark and is 0-4, never placed in 0-60 or 0-65.

Two In The Pink has her second race for Richard Smith. She was just over 3ls behind Joyous on her debut for the trainer. She is 11lbs better off today which includes Cremin’s claim. Smith is 5-51 in handicaps at Lingfield on the polytrack, current losing run 16. She is a full sister to Alben Star who is rated in the 90s. She may in time turn out to be well handicapped but she is drawn wide.

Dishy Guru has won better races than this including over this course and distance off 13lbs higher two years ago. However, he hasn’t won since April 2012. He was just over 4ls behind Presumido last time and is 5lbs better off today. He looks regressive. Morris is only 2-36 for the yard.

Bussa is 7lbs lower than the mark he won off a year ago and is 2-3 on this track. However, he is just 1-12 over 6f, 0-4 on artificial surfaces. All four of his wins in a handicap have come when he is in the top 4 of the weights; outside of that range his record reads 0-9.

Chevise was beaten 5ls by Gregori last time and on a line through that horse cannot beat Presumido. Steve Woodman has had 3 winners from his last 100 runners and his losing run stretches back to April 2013, 0-19.

One Way Or Another is the second Evans runner. He is a 11yo now and 0-13 over 6f. He is 2lbs higher than when he won over 7f here in October.

Idle Curiosity is sure to need this as she is 0-9, never placed, when returning to the track after a break of more than a fortnight.

Speedyfix is 0-25 over 6f.

Conclusion: There isn’t a lot of pace in this race and it could turn out to be a tactical affair. Idle Curiosity is likely to lead and possibly the hard pulling Spellmaker. However, Presumido has the look of a well handicapped horse and has stalked as well as been held up. If he gets the breaks he will take a great deal of beating. The unexposed Two In The Pink is worth noting as a she looks well handicapped and should be placed to win soon, she should run well from her poor draw.
 
marble said:
LINGFIELD

2:00 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
Has won over further, usually comes from behind. If this race had a load of front runners I would fancy them to burn One Way Or Another off but the race is predominately made up of hold up horses and there's none with better proven hold up form than this horse.
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You didn't need to hold him up that long, Mr Kirby:mad:

Well done with the savour though, Doomster.
 
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Will have a bet on The Great Gabriel in 3:45. Bang in form, excellent strike rate at the track, will take the beating imo.
 
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wilsonl said:
Newcastle is going to be attritional today but one horse who has perfect race conditions is Dingo Bay in the 2:50.

Twice a course winner in heavy ground, with his best performance coming at todays trip. He is a stone higher in the weights than that day but only 6lbs higher than his last win 3 races ago when he tired during the extra half mile but still hung on.

He was making a race of it against a subsequent 110 rated winner LTO, albeit in receipt of 11lb (when 3lb wrong) and looking booked for 2nd when departing 2 out.

But that race was on quicker ground than he prefers and dropped back 4f on his favoured ground he must go well if over his latest fall.

5/2 won't make you rich but dangers look thin on the ground.
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Great call boots full:D:D:thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
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