What are you backing Today?

[marbler]

Nowweareseven is one to do a market check-on in the first race at Ludlow.

Was punted from 10/1 to 7/2 fav in a bumper for K Burke, (over a year ago now), at Ffos Las when finishing tailed off. Someone clearly thought the horse was half decent that day.
Switched stables to a yard who has had no trouble winning hurdles recently - Nigel Twiston Davies, and this dark horse gets my vote against the interesting newcomer from the Venetia Williams stable.

 

[trefflich]

Big move for Burton Port, could have sworn he was 8/1 last night...

 

[viking]

Yes and Davy Russell rides although AP is there. DR not on the other Hemmings runner so assume this is because he'll get the ride in the Nash


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[trefflich]

Yes and Davy Russell rides although AP is there. DR not on the other Hemmings runner so assume this is because he'll get the ride in the Nash


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He says not the case but the usual bluffing I would imagine..

 

[Anadin]

Layla Joan runs again tomorrow 3:10 Punchestown.

I put her up on this thread 8 days ago and She won very impressively.
If anyone watched and remembers the race She travels so so well. Very progressive profile.
The form of that race was franked today. The horse She beat by 6L, Fine Rightly, reappeared and won today by 7L in a similar graded contest.

Layla Joan is back in Ireland again tomorrow and running against mares only. Carberry back on-board again and he has won on her previously too. And the perfect jockey style-wise for this horse imo.
Her 2 biggest challengers in the market are the Mullins pair Upsie 6/5 & Urticarie 4/1. Both of these have struggled with the 2m4f distance previously. I don't think either of them quite stay.

Ground and trip are perfect for Layla Joan and again I think she is a cracking bet at 7/4.

Not a great aficionado of form or really ever tip anything but Urtcarie is entered into the Neptune & Bartlett at Chelt's so Mullins must think this horse can see out 2.5 min, would I be right in saying to get into those he would need a mark that can be achieved by winning today ?

 

[Anadin]

Layla Joan just withdrawn

 

[trefflich]

Not a great aficionado of form or really ever tip anything but Urtcarie is entered into the Neptune & Bartlett at Chelt's so Mullins must think this horse can see out 2.5 min, would I be right in saying to get into those he would need a mark that can be achieved by winning today ?

Is there a minimum OR required for the above races? Presumed it was just the h'caps that this applied to to ensure a run?

 

[Anadin]

Is there a minimum OR required for the above races? Presumed it was just the h'caps that this applied to to ensure a run?

Thanks Treff, kinda what I thought, but will dabble on its Chelts entries & the fact Laya withdrawn..

 

[Double Handful]

Layla Joan just withdrawn

Just seeing that now Anadin. Disappointing She is not running.I'm just a huge fan of Layla Joan. Particularly on heavy ground.

That's a good shout on the Neptune & Bartlett entries. Willie should certainly know a lot better than me and the RP hacks.....

The notes on Urticarie in the RP were:

"Won five bumpers and maiden; did not seem to stay 2m4f sole try"

I know that is far from thorough or definitive. But at the same time before Layla withdrew, Urticarie was 8/1 with Upsie 7/4 and Layla Joan 6/5.

Urticarie 7/2 now. Upsie has failed to see out this trip twice.

I might have a dabble myself. But not to the level of stake I had on Layla!

 

[del boy]

Really like blow the doors off in the first today. Like the way the horse travels and should be fitter today.

 

[marbler]

Nowweareseven is one to do a market check-on in the first race at Ludlow.

Not strong in the betting as yet, but I've backed it anyway.

 

[links781]

Pearl Castle can't lose today.4/6 should be 4/11.

 

[trefflich]

Broadway Symphony an interesting contender tomorrow in Ludlow's 2:40.

The horse left Ireland last summer to begin a career over here. He was a good third behind a horse trained by Jonjo O'Neill's called Mountain Tunes, (entered in the Albert Bartlett next month), who is now rated 135.
Broadway Flyer races off a comparatively much lower mark of 115.

That seems like a fair enough rating. I do not agree with the Sporting Life summary that the horse is "harshly treated". This horse can open his account (first time in a handicap) tomorrow after three decent performances in novice/maiden hurdles.

Decent tipping Marble, very well thought out.

 

[Simpson Jersey]

Impressed by Commissar lto at Lingfield came from last to 1st in the straight going away at the finish, extra 2fs shouldn't inconvenience it and think it will follow up with Downing taking off most of the penalty.

 

[marbler]

UNION JACK DYCY, (Warwick 4:40) is on a bloody good mark.
He's had few runs since arriving from France, but he did enough over there when winning a 20K+ race at Auteuil, to make me believe he could win this tomorrow. Also won at Warwick already over 3M2F. Venetia has done the smart thing by running this horse again at class 3 level. He carries joint top weight but he's not up against great opposition here. I expect him to take this.

NODEBATEABOUTIT, (Exeter 4:50) has been dropped 12 pounds the last two chase starts, on lowest mark since he last scored. The handicapper is giving this horse a real chance now. The cheekpieces can rejuvenate him, he looks a lightly raced type who is worth backing to return to his novice chase form tomorrow.

Win double

 

[Diamond Geezer]

Seems to be a bit of a gamble on three horses at Thurles

Mooney's Cottage, Montana Slim and Bale O'Shea, all same jockey and trainer combination, all shortening up fast

 

[baldeagle]

O Hare knows the time of day pulled off a big price double at Leopardstown a couple of years

 

[Jim Bowen]

Just done a small stakes e/w trixie on the three at Thurles, form looks abysmal, so hopefully something in the movement.


Edit. First faded badly after going off from the front, still maybe something to it as it was markedly better that its previous efforts.

 

[Diamond Geezer]

First one beaten

 

[marbler]

NODEBATEABOUTIT, (Exeter 4:50) has been dropped 12 pounds the last two chase starts, on lowest mark since he last scored. The handicapper is giving this horse a real chance now. The cheekpieces can rejuvenate him, he looks a lightly raced type who is worth backing to return to his novice chase form tomorrow.

Nearly brought down when in front near the finishing line by a loose horse, cost me a few quid that. Thank god the first one in the double didn't win or I'd be sectioned by tonight.

 

[marbler]

BallyPatrick my fancy in the Eider, good e/w value, looks layed out for the race, I've been watching Mick Channon's horses get backed time and time again in these big handicap chases, up to now he's not landed that many, I think BallyPatrick can do it for him tomorrow. The big three firms are ducking him. What do they know that Marble doesn't! Will come on a stone for the last run at Chelters.!

 

[baracouda]

Are you going to ignite the powder Marb?

 

[marbler]

Will have a decent e/w bet on the horse, Baracouda.

These long distance chases are not my forte as a betting medium, usually I seem to back horses that travel for the most part... but then empty.

Naturally, with a 33 furlong chase there's more risk of being brought down or a fall, so I'll have to factor those things in to my stake.

 

[Maxbet]

I think War On looks interesting, Ridden by Diarmuid O'Regan the younger brother of Denis who himself was the last rider to win on War On and takes a valuable 7Lb off leaving him at the foot of the handicap carrying a featherweight of 9.07 in a race where every Lb will seem like two.

Abandoned in 2013, 10, 05, and 03 the Eider chase can when conditions are heavy be a dire war of attrition. The last two races run on heavy ground saw only 5 of the 26 starters manage to even finish. Memories of Companero and Giles Cross go from travelling ever so sweat to practically clambering over the last few fences linger in my mind as they completely ground to a halt up the run in.

War On has a dosage cd of -80 he has a heavy influence of Busted’s running through his sire line and his dams sire line. This horse is all about stamina and should benefit as much as anything in the race for the extra distance, his entire profile is littered with Plodders.

Staying on in each of his last three races, all at Newcastle and all over inadequate distances but ones that have seen him dropped a further 7Lb by the handicapper and should have served well as schooling sessions, if this has been the main target.

50/1....12/1 a place just seems like a tinge of value for a horse thats a stone well in on a course that looks to suit and over a test that he needs. Should be 5/1 just to finish if we go by recent heavy ground historical data....

Save the applause, i'll have a Standing Ovation for a 40/1 place double....

 

[swedish chef]

Lingfield 5.10 Fratellino 6.8 win 2.26 place

Looks laid out for this race off a mark of o/r 80 - has been running at Southwell where he has no form but looking at his form at Lingfield where he was running off mid to high o/r 90's he looks thrown in - the booking of Tom Quealy shows there intentions as he is 4 wins from 13 4yo+ runners for the stable.