What are you backing Today?

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Well that wasn't good, went out like a light, let's try one more.

2.25 Huntingdon - Harristown. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
Harristown was bitterly disappointing at Wincanton last time out but the fact that he turns out here just a week later suggests connections are happy enough with him. Nothing has come to light regarding that poor performance and it has to be excused if he is to be backed today. Given the form of his two previous outings it looks worth giving him the benefit of the doubt. His best perfromance to date came on his penultimate start when he ran the progressive Lightentertainment to within half a length giving him eight pounds. The winner has subsequently franked the form by winning from a four pound higher mark at Cheltenham. Harristown is two pounds higher but he is still unexposed over this sort of trip and the return of Noel Fehily in the saddle is a bonus. He beat Baradari (now rated 140) over the extended two miles here this time last year in similar conditions to those he faces today and he is bred to appreciate this longer distance. He represents a yard who have a profitable 18% strike rate with their hurdlers at this track.
 
Ricko said:
Well that wasn't good, went out like a light, let's try one more.

2.25 Huntingdon - Harristown. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
Harristown was bitterly disappointing at Wincanton last time out but the fact that he turns out here just a week later suggests connections are happy enough with him. Nothing has come to light regarding that poor performance and it has to be excused if he is to be backed today. Given the form of his two previous outings it looks worth giving him the benefit of the doubt. His best perfromance to date came on his penultimate start when he ran the progressive Lightentertainment to within half a length giving him eight pounds. The winner has subsequently franked the form by winning from a four pound higher mark at Cheltenham. Harristown is two pounds higher but he is still unexposed over this sort of trip and the return of Noel Fehily in the saddle is a bonus. He beat Baradari (now rated 140) over the extended two miles here this time last year in similar conditions to those he faces today and he is bred to appreciate this longer distance. He represents a yard who have a profitable 18% strike rate with their hurdlers at this track.
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Both beaten easily. Probably not going to be my day today but i'll put the last couple up and hope for a change of luck.

3.10 - Taunton:
Finish The Story. 1.5 pts win. Available at 10/1.
Midnight Dove. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1.
Early money for the David Pipe trained Sivron, who won his only start in a point, probably means he is chucked in here, despite achieving next to nothing in three starts over hurdles. This could be a whole different ball game now he tackles fences in the first time blinkers in a very moderate race. His purchase price of £90000 suggests he is thought capable of being much better than a 93 rated Chaser. However there are a few at much bigger prices that may be worth supporting in the event he doesn't come up to expectations. Finish The Story has to shoulder top weight but his claimer reduces his burden by seven pounds and he certainly comes into the race the form horse. He has won three of his last four and was still there with the leaders when brought down four out at Lingfield last time out. He hasn't been beating much but he has done it in taking style and he looks capable of getting at least competitive in this slightly better race. He handles testing conditions, stays well and still looks feasibly weighted. His jockey is not very experienced under rules but he does have a victory to his name from just 12 rides. Midnight Dove hasn't produced much of note in almost any of his races but he can be given a chance if he can repeat his second at Towcester in March 2013. That may seem highly speculative but he has only been seen three times since and was coming back from a long absence when pulling up at Bangor in December. He hasn't had many chances given a stamina test in these sort of conditions and looks worth a small e/w bet.

4.50 - Taunton - Gilzean. 2.5 pts win. Available at 5/1.
 
I'm all over Firm Order in the Kempton 3:35 today. Paul Webber wouldn't be particularly high on my list of top trainers but his chasers for the season to-date have finished in the top 2 c. 40% of the time.

On the face of it this looks quiet an open race with only 1.5 points separating six of the nine runners but on closer inspection Open Hearted, Umberto D'Olivante, Salmanzar and Baby Shine all have something to prove over the distance (albeit the latter did win a PTP over this far 5 years ago) and although JP & AP team up with Cantlow, I just can't see today being his day, especially with 11st12 on his back regardless of how well handicapped he may appear to be on his old form. His C&D performance a month ago was pretty woeful to be blunt and part of me also thinks that the trainer has got him in here to a) give him a run out before Cheltenham (when he could be interesting dropped back in trip off his revised mark) but b) to ensure the weights were kept down for Firm Order.

Firm Order, unlike a couple of his opponents won well on his last effort over C&D last season , by an eased down 9L off 115. Subsequently he ran Holywell and the bang in form Victor Hewgo to 3 lengths off a mark which will be 4lb higher than he'll run off today allowing for his claim. He ended the season by finding the festival 4 miler too much and then ran far too keenly on his first outing of this season when beaten into 3rd on ground too quick for him. He followed that up with a nice win at Sandown back on slower ground under today's claimer (only raised 3lb since) before finding only Firebird Flyer too good off the same mark as today with the same claimer on board LTO.

An adjusted rating of 123 gives him an outstanding chance in this IMO and 5/1 looks a great price.
 
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Disaster yesterday, one to forget,

SPOWARTICUS (5.45) is available at 1.9 to place on the machine. Looks sure to be in the 3.
 
1.30 Kempton

celestino+vodkantonic look opposable in this

Kayf Blanco lto was sandwiched between two horses who are running progressively better races so looks on a winning mark here. 1.95 to place and 6.2 win looks worthy of a 80/20 bet
 
The dodgiest looking bet on the Kempton card to day is West Wizard.

Seemed to spit out the dummy twice at long odds on, had lots of problems and not been seen out for 3 months.

Back him :)
 
EC1 said:
1.30 Kempton

celestino+vodkantonic look opposable in this

Kayf Blanco lto was sandwiched between two horses who are running progressively better races so looks on a winning mark here. 1.95 to place and 6.2 win looks worthy of a 80/20 bet
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Another good `un, EC.
 
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EC1 said:
cheers guys

one other bet on a quiet day..2.45 Beast of Burden..3.0 taken..win only
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I know something about Beast of Burden - the trainer thinks he is the real deal.Before he ran at Newbury someone gave a friend of mine the word as to highly regarded he was.My mate usually bets in 20 or 50 cent units had €400 to win.Horse went 1.07 in running which was the price I got out at.Later that day my mate met the non gambling guy who gave him the tip-he told him the horse had finished second and the guy punched the air in delight.
I got stuck with work and couldn't back him today but He might have been one of the best bets of the season.
 
wilsonl said:
I'm all over Firm Order in the Kempton 3:35 today. Paul Webber wouldn't be particularly high on my list of top trainers but his chasers for the season to-date have finished in the top 2 c. 40% of the time.

On the face of it this looks quiet an open race with only 1.5 points separating six of the nine runners but on closer inspection Open Hearted, Umberto D'Olivante, Salmanzar and Baby Shine all have something to prove over the distance (albeit the latter did win a PTP over this far 5 years ago) and although JP & AP team up with Cantlow, I just can't see today being his day, especially with 11st12 on his back regardless of how well handicapped he may appear to be on his old form. His C&D performance a month ago was pretty woeful to be blunt and part of me also thinks that the trainer has got him in here to a) give him a run out before Cheltenham (when he could be interesting dropped back in trip off his revised mark) but b) to ensure the weights were kept down for Firm Order.

Firm Order, unlike a couple of his opponents won well on his last effort over C&D last season , by an eased down 9L off 115. Subsequently he ran Holywell and the bang in form Victor Hewgo to 3 lengths off a mark which will be 4lb higher than he'll run off today allowing for his claim. He ended the season by finding the festival 4 miler too much and then ran far too keenly on his first outing of this season when beaten into 3rd on ground too quick for him. He followed that up with a nice win at Sandown back on slower ground under today's claimer (only raised 3lb since) before finding only Firebird Flyer too good off the same mark as today with the same claimer on board LTO.

An adjusted rating of 123 gives him an outstanding chance in this IMO and 5/1 looks a great price.
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Well, having successfully ruled out 5 of the top 6 in the betting - the 6th being my selection - the finish was fought out by 2 of the remaining 3 runners :whistle:

Sorry guys, I think I'll leave it to EC for now.
 
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Risk a Fine looks big at 6/1 in the first at Newbury.

Well backed first time when not right, well backed second time when winning easily, the Hobbs team obviously think a lot of him. If he can learn to settle he'll be hard to beat and rates a good each way bet to kick the day off.


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Paddy Power are offering a Powerplay Plus on SdG today - 13/8. Max is £20, which I've taken. I'm also going to have £25 with hills as they are money back if second. I think he'll be too good for these today.


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BennyB said:
Risk a Fine looks big at 6/1 in the first at Newbury.

Well backed first time when not right, well backed second time when winning easily, the Hobbs team obviously think a lot of him. If he can learn to settle he'll be hard to beat and rates a good each way bet to kick the day off.


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That went well! Didn't settle at all but still not good enough. Winner massively impressive, Supreme Novices contender?


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