Nice shout
What are you backing Today?
- Thread starter On The Bridle
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Nice shout
Perpetual
At the Start
Hate to blow my own trumpet, but feck me, I won't put up many 20/1 winners :lol:
Jumped beautifully as well...
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Well done, Perp.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Well done!
icebreaker
At the Start
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- Jun 12, 2005
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- 2,957
Great call, Per !
3.20 Newton Abbot
Braavos looks to be improving fast and can defy a 9lb rise as he had at least that much in hand LTO. 6/1 with BetVictor looks decent. Main rival is Starchitect who seems to be finding lots of ways to lose these days
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Braavos looks to be improving fast and can defy a 9lb rise as he had at least that much in hand LTO. 6/1 with BetVictor looks decent. Main rival is Starchitect who seems to be finding lots of ways to lose these days
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Mistakes at Newbury and Aintree certainly cost the Pipe horse. But it was pilot error at Cheltenham that did for him and I think a sharp track like NA will help....not only in maybe concentrating the mind but also weight carrying. On a line through Agrapart he has the comfortable beating of Braavos. I took 4s last night, he's a lot shorter now.
Nice shout obviously Braavos not improving as much as he needed to
swedish chef
At the Start
I picked the wrong week to be busy, just caught up with this thread and some amazing calls and winners - Well done everyone.
2.15 Haydock
A typically competitive Swinton but Ch'tibello has a great chance here. Value for more than the eventual margin in the Scottish CH as he'd have surely proved if he hadn't tried to take the last with him. The ground that day would have been soft enough for him and today's surface should suit better
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A typically competitive Swinton but Ch'tibello has a great chance here. Value for more than the eventual margin in the Scottish CH as he'd have surely proved if he hadn't tried to take the last with him. The ground that day would have been soft enough for him and today's surface should suit better
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I agree. Looking back at his novice form also underlines how good a mark he is still on. He's by far the most likely winner.
I've also had a second bet in the race though, albeit each way. Regulation is a huge price off bottom weight. This is obviously a step up in class but this is his first run on the ground he needs for a while. He went in my tracker when he ran Maputo close last summer, and that one went on to run a neck second to Altior at Cheltenham. Neil King's horses are in prime form running out of their skins right now, his mark still looks plenty workable in light of his form on good ground, and 66/1 ew in this is just plain wrong. Today may not be his day as its a tough looking race and I might be misreading his ability to be competitive at this level but I'm prepared to pay to find out at that price. If he doesn't show today he'll definitely pop up a couple of times this summer and I'll be backing him until he makes me a profit.
The other one I like today is Lamool in the long distance hurdle at Haydock. He's only been out of the first three once in two years since arriving from France. In all that time he's remained on a similar mark and comes into this in good heart and underrated. My slight doubt is Tim Vaughan's patchy form (tends to come good around this time of the year though), and I'm not a big fan of Alan Johns, but an ew bet at 12/1 for a horse with such a consistent profile feels like a bet to nothing against a field where, barring a couple who may be able to progress further, look largely exposed.
I should add that I've put them in a small ew double too.
I've also had a second bet in the race though, albeit each way. Regulation is a huge price off bottom weight. This is obviously a step up in class but this is his first run on the ground he needs for a while. He went in my tracker when he ran Maputo close last summer, and that one went on to run a neck second to Altior at Cheltenham. Neil King's horses are in prime form running out of their skins right now, his mark still looks plenty workable in light of his form on good ground, and 66/1 ew in this is just plain wrong. Today may not be his day as its a tough looking race and I might be misreading his ability to be competitive at this level but I'm prepared to pay to find out at that price. If he doesn't show today he'll definitely pop up a couple of times this summer and I'll be backing him until he makes me a profit.
The other one I like today is Lamool in the long distance hurdle at Haydock. He's only been out of the first three once in two years since arriving from France. In all that time he's remained on a similar mark and comes into this in good heart and underrated. My slight doubt is Tim Vaughan's patchy form (tends to come good around this time of the year though), and I'm not a big fan of Alan Johns, but an ew bet at 12/1 for a horse with such a consistent profile feels like a bet to nothing against a field where, barring a couple who may be able to progress further, look largely exposed.
I should add that I've put them in a small ew double too.
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Tiny Clanger
At the Start
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- Jan 23, 2012
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- 383
Agree on Ch'Tibello, am double n singles with Bronte Flyer in first race, connections been looking to get her out for a while on a galloping mile
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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- 24,793
Anyone on Ch'tibello is entitled to be displeased at the ride he got from Skelton. He gave the same over-confident ride to Zarib last time too. He's a bit of a liability for a very good trainer.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That's one of those though where I think it's the tactics weren't discussed before the race? It was obvious with no confirmed front runners that it was best for that horse to be midfield rather than out the back. Would the trainer not have sussed that one out.
Tiny Clanger
At the Start
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- Jan 23, 2012
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- 383
one extreme to another
Goes in 2:10 at Musselburgh today, a 3/1 chance, interesting....I thought he needed following after that last display.
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2.00 - Wolverhampton - Secret Ballerina - 1 pt win. Available at 8/1
She ran well enough on debut and will have learned a lot for that. She has apparently been working really well and should be able to show a fair bit of improvement today. Should have every chance of reversing the form with the favourite.
4.00 - Wolverhampton - Tiga Tuan - 1 pt win. Available at 15/2
She hasn’t shown much so far but is slowly improving and the feeling is that she does have some ability. She can take another step forward today and should be able to get competitive.
4.10 - Musselburgh:
Love Marmalade. 2 pts win. Available at 13/2.
Bayan Kasirga. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
Love Marmalade made his reappearance over two miles here last month and, although well beaten, that would've been too far and he could come on for that run. He is now back down to a mark one pound lower in the weights than when winning this race two seasons ago. He has run well on each of the four occasions he has run in this class over 12/13 furlongs on fast ground (form figures of 1322) and back down in trip he looks primed for a big run. The booking of a jockey who rides the track well (20% strike rate in recent seasons) takes the eye and the yard's horses have historically done well on turf at this time of year. Bayan Kasirga has won two of her last three starts on the A/W, both over 12 furlongs on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton, and ran much better than her final finishing position suggests at Beverley last time out. She was short of racing room when the pace quickened and didn't lose any further ground once she found daylight, eventually beaten four and a half lengths. Her two previous visits to this track have resulted in victories over 12/13 furlongs and she is still on a good mark on earlier form. She drops back down to a class where she has made the frame in five of her eight completed starts over 12/13 furlongs on ground good or faster, winning three of those races. She represents a yard who have an imperious 22% strike rate at this track, returning a l.s.p of £54.
6.00 - Towcester - Jinsha Lake. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1.
Marju's Quest won easily at Market Rasen on Friday and he could take some pegging back under his seven pound penalty. This is a stiffer track than he is normally effective on but he has form over further so he is unlikely to fail on stamina grounds. Looks Like Power looks to be on a feasible mark but at a bigger price a chance is taken on Jinsha Lake. He has been beaten out of sight in all four starts over hurdles but they all came on soft/heavy ground and his flat form in Ireland suggests he should find today's conditions much more to his liking. That form on the level saw him reach a peak mark of 90 and he runs from just four pounds higher for this handicap debut over hurdles. It's surprising to see that he is still an entire and he may just be a regressive horse who is a poor hurdler but, as a four year old with just nine starts behind him, it's bit early to be writing him off. He receives a stone and upwards from all bar one of the field and represents a yard who, as well as being very rare visitors here, send just the one to the track today. The stable jockey partners and he turn up forhis only booked ride.
8.20 - Windsor - City Of Ideas. 2.5 pts win. Available at 4/1.
Handicaps for three year olds at this time of the year are races we normally avoid but there is the odd time when there is a horse who peaks interest. On this occasion it's the John Gosden trained City Of Ideas. He made his handicap debut when reappearing at Bath last month and his near seven length third included finishing four lengths behind Gawdapalin. He obviously has work to do to turn that form round with the runner up but there are several reasons to suspect he could do so. His rival had the advantage of a previous outing and City Of Ideas has a four pound pull in the weights but the step up to 12 furlongs provides the main reason for optimism. Gawdapalin should also be suited by the extra distance as well but City Of Ideas is by a stouter Sire and a fanciful Derby entry suggests that connections were initially of the opinion that it was over this sort of trip that his future lie. His Dam, by a Derby winning Sire, reached a peak rating of 111 over 12 furlongs so City of Ideas is bred to be better than a 75 handicapper under today's conditions. Time will tell if has inherited the ability to be so.
She ran well enough on debut and will have learned a lot for that. She has apparently been working really well and should be able to show a fair bit of improvement today. Should have every chance of reversing the form with the favourite.
4.00 - Wolverhampton - Tiga Tuan - 1 pt win. Available at 15/2
She hasn’t shown much so far but is slowly improving and the feeling is that she does have some ability. She can take another step forward today and should be able to get competitive.
4.10 - Musselburgh:
Love Marmalade. 2 pts win. Available at 13/2.
Bayan Kasirga. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
Love Marmalade made his reappearance over two miles here last month and, although well beaten, that would've been too far and he could come on for that run. He is now back down to a mark one pound lower in the weights than when winning this race two seasons ago. He has run well on each of the four occasions he has run in this class over 12/13 furlongs on fast ground (form figures of 1322) and back down in trip he looks primed for a big run. The booking of a jockey who rides the track well (20% strike rate in recent seasons) takes the eye and the yard's horses have historically done well on turf at this time of year. Bayan Kasirga has won two of her last three starts on the A/W, both over 12 furlongs on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton, and ran much better than her final finishing position suggests at Beverley last time out. She was short of racing room when the pace quickened and didn't lose any further ground once she found daylight, eventually beaten four and a half lengths. Her two previous visits to this track have resulted in victories over 12/13 furlongs and she is still on a good mark on earlier form. She drops back down to a class where she has made the frame in five of her eight completed starts over 12/13 furlongs on ground good or faster, winning three of those races. She represents a yard who have an imperious 22% strike rate at this track, returning a l.s.p of £54.
6.00 - Towcester - Jinsha Lake. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1.
Marju's Quest won easily at Market Rasen on Friday and he could take some pegging back under his seven pound penalty. This is a stiffer track than he is normally effective on but he has form over further so he is unlikely to fail on stamina grounds. Looks Like Power looks to be on a feasible mark but at a bigger price a chance is taken on Jinsha Lake. He has been beaten out of sight in all four starts over hurdles but they all came on soft/heavy ground and his flat form in Ireland suggests he should find today's conditions much more to his liking. That form on the level saw him reach a peak mark of 90 and he runs from just four pounds higher for this handicap debut over hurdles. It's surprising to see that he is still an entire and he may just be a regressive horse who is a poor hurdler but, as a four year old with just nine starts behind him, it's bit early to be writing him off. He receives a stone and upwards from all bar one of the field and represents a yard who, as well as being very rare visitors here, send just the one to the track today. The stable jockey partners and he turn up forhis only booked ride.
8.20 - Windsor - City Of Ideas. 2.5 pts win. Available at 4/1.
Handicaps for three year olds at this time of the year are races we normally avoid but there is the odd time when there is a horse who peaks interest. On this occasion it's the John Gosden trained City Of Ideas. He made his handicap debut when reappearing at Bath last month and his near seven length third included finishing four lengths behind Gawdapalin. He obviously has work to do to turn that form round with the runner up but there are several reasons to suspect he could do so. His rival had the advantage of a previous outing and City Of Ideas has a four pound pull in the weights but the step up to 12 furlongs provides the main reason for optimism. Gawdapalin should also be suited by the extra distance as well but City Of Ideas is by a stouter Sire and a fanciful Derby entry suggests that connections were initially of the opinion that it was over this sort of trip that his future lie. His Dam, by a Derby winning Sire, reached a peak rating of 111 over 12 furlongs so City of Ideas is bred to be better than a 75 handicapper under today's conditions. Time will tell if has inherited the ability to be so.
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I'm also on Jinsha Lake Ricko. Handicap debut for a shrewd yard who like their summer winners. I too picked up on the fact that all his juvenile runs were on unsuitably soft ground. I try to pick these types wherever possible and whilst plenty get turned over that's usually compensated for with the odds, and they tend to be profitable overall.
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