What are you backing Today?

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Very sweet on Sennockian Star in 2:35 at Epsom tomorrow. Good form n the book and now down to a dangerously low mark. Expecting a big run.
 
Marble said:
Very sweet on Sennockian Star in 2:35 at Epsom tomorrow. Good form n the book and now down to a dangerously low mark. Expecting a big run.
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Without wanting to sound cheeky (as I've been trying to catch his upcoming win as well) would form figures of 10/11, 12/13, 10/11 and 12/12 on his last 4 runs at Epsom not deter your confidence a bit. I know he won and finished second before that but is he getting quirky as he gets older and wiser.
 
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I like the look of Examiner in the 3:45pm tomorrow at Epsom. Off the back of a good run at Newmarket where he finished slightly ahead of Revolutionist who has won twice since, he is entered in the Hunt Cup at Ascot but would probably need to go up in the weights by 5lbs to get in. 8/1 with Betfair Sportsbook is reasonable.
 
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A bit yes. He's also won at Epsom, on ground with soft in the description, so I don't believe its an issue with the track. In 2013, when he was ultra consistent, he started from 71 then finished the season on a rating of 100. An increase of 29 pounds. That's what you get for consistency.

However, this time last summer he was 12/13 at this meeting, but then won a 30 grand handicap the following week at Chester. So form cycles suggest on the days he is A1 he invariably takes some beating, even if he was beaten out of sight the time before. I pay my money take my chance.

I would also advise to watch how fancied he is in the market as it may provide a clue to how he will perform. Clearly at 14/1 the market is telling me I'm wrong, but we'll see what happens.

I have Examiner on my shortlist for the 3:45 aswell. Interesting to see your write up. Alcatraz gets my vote with the low weight though.
 
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3.45 - Epsom:
Alcatraz. 1.5 pts win. Available at 13/2.
Jack's Revenge. 1 pt win. Available at 12/1.
A wide open extended mile handicap and one in which stablemates Alcatraz and Jack's Revenge could go well. Alcatraz has a progressive profile and gets in here off bottom weight. He was just behind Dutch Uncle on his reappearance at Windsor over ten furlongs and, with that rival having had the advantage of a previous run, he could turn the tables here. The form of that race looks decent with the winner placing in a Listed race at Nottingham, the fourth winning a better handicap at York and the sixth finishing second in a handicap at Chelmsford. The ground has come right for Alcatraz and the stable's horses normally run well here. Jack's Revenge hasn't won for almost four years but he went very close at Newmarket last time out and handles any ground. He has form from higher in the handicap and, although he has never raced here, he has handled tracks like Goodwood and Brighton so the omens are good.


4.30 - Epsom:
Somehow. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
Harlequeen. 1 pt win. Available at 20/1.
The Oaks has a habit of producing winners from left field and, with the stamina of Minding not cast in stone, this may again be one of those years. If the favourite does stay she is by far the best Filly in the race and should win. However there are horses in opposition who are likely stronger stayers and they be worth a small consideration. Somehow was all at sea at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks but she still managed to prevail and the experience is unlikely to be lost on her. She looks guaranteed to improve and her Dam won this race. She won her second start on heavy ground so conditions won't pose a problem. Harlequeen looked in need of further than the extended ten furlongs over which he was a four and a half length fourth to So Mi Dar at York last time out. She needs to find plenty of improvement to figure in this but that's possible now she steps up to a mile and a half. She has plenty of stats in her favour and the yard have a decent record here.


4.55 - Catterick - Nezar. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.


5.50 - Epsom - Stamp Hill. 2.5 pts win. Available at 4/1.


6.30 - Bath - Picket Line. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.


7.50 - Goodwood - Kassia. 2.5 pts win. Available at 5/1.
 
bigeeps said:
I like the look of Examiner in the 3:45pm tomorrow at Epsom. Off the back of a good run at Newmarket where he finished slightly ahead of Revolutionist who has won twice since, he is entered in the Hunt Cup at Ascot but would probably need to go up in the weights by 5lbs to get in. 8/1 with Betfair Sportsbook is reasonable.
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Very good call.
 
Marble said:
Very good call.
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Thanks.

I backed Sennockian Star as well as I am chasing his win :) Looked to bang his head on the stall and then took a while to get into his stride. He looks out of love with the game at the moment.
 
Few quid ew on prince of Aran in the first at Epsom at 12s. Backed it last time out, hit all sorts of traffic and not given greatest ride imo. Will give it another chance.

Also couple of quid ew on Your Pal Tal in Ireland at 10s. At the right trip and bit of money for it. I'm sure EC1 posted a really good stat about the horse but fucked if I can remember it so just a small bet.
 
bigeeps said:
Thanks.

I backed Sennockian Star as well as I am chasing his win :) Looked to bang his head on the stall and then took a while to get into his stride. He looks out of love with the game at the moment.
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Yeah you're right. Looking forward to being at the course today, good card.
 
Hay chewed, (Dash),Cloth Of Stars (Derby), Repeater, (5:15) are my three main fancies.
 
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Few bets today:
Tracker horse Midnight Macchiato at Musselburgh. Unlucky at Newmarket lto where he ran into a very well handicapped Hannon beast (one who's since won off a 9lb higher mark). I think being held up on a track with a bend will suit him more.

I think Second Step is very overpriced in the CC. He's a classy animal over 12f and is overs based on his run in the Yorkshire Cup. He doesn't stay more than a mile and a half and also went too soon at York. He shouldn't be longer in the betting than Arabian Queen (who is a 10f filly) and the market leaders are all beatable.

I'm on Cloth of Stars ante-post at 10s in the big one and although this isn't what you'd call an each way race in theory competitive as it is Sky are paying 5 places which makes it one. Deauville at 12s has therefore also been backed.
 
Cartago (2.00) faced the impossible lto, trying to cede 6lbs to a horse who's probably gp2 or better, but still acquitted himself well (despite the winner knocking him sideways) under a hands & heels finish.
Took 11/2 earlier, though the current 5/1 still looks generous.
 
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Worcester 1.45
Hard to see Kilfinichen Bay or FeartheDark giving 6lb to The Tourard Man who looks a strong bet at 7/4 although he'll probably need to jump better than on his previous attempts over fences
The others don't look up to much

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Rapid Rise - 6:10 newcastle - 8/1

Think he's there to win for connections who like to have a go. The 6th furlong will hopefully help him and the novice race won by Lomu working out pretty well.

Seems overpriced against MJ's with a penalty and a couple of others who haven't achieved as much.
 
DanB88 said:
Rapid Rise - 6:10 newcastle - 8/1

Think he's there to win for connections who like to have a go. The 6th furlong will hopefully help him and the novice race won by Lomu working out pretty well.

Seems overpriced against MJ's with a penalty and a couple of others who haven't achieved as much.
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Thought I'd got that entering the final furlong but either didn't find as much or was just outstayed by the Ryan filly who had also been dismissed by the market.
 
Tincan said:
Few quid ew on prince of Aran in the first at Epsom at 12s. Backed it last time out, hit all sorts of traffic and not given greatest ride imo. Will give it another chance.

Also couple of quid ew on Your Pal Tal in Ireland at 10s. At the right trip and bit of money for it. I'm sure EC1 posted a really good stat about the horse but fucked if I can remember it so just a small bet.
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**** me I've backed a winner on here!

Amazing scenes Geoff.

Hallelujah. Thanks to EC1 in his absence.
 
Tincan said:
**** me I've backed a winner on here!

Amazing scenes Geoff.

Hallelujah. Thanks to EC1 in his absence.
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Don't discount Prince of Arran as well Tincan. Today went all wrong for him. He's well in as things stand so with the possibility of getting dropped a couple of lbs.

Well done with the winner too.
 
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Im still moonwalking round the front room in celebration of this Dan. First winner I've had since slim chance's Mullins cheltenham double last year (at least it feels that ******* way). Cheers.

Yeah you're probably right with POA but he looks a horrible ride (or maybe Queally's giving him shockers?) so would be reluctant to back him again now.
 
Surprised to see Menorah odds against today (only in one place atm but drifting everywhere).

You could say I need my head read for suggesting him at such short odds but surely he has a massive class advantage over these and can give the weight away.
 
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