What are you backing Today?

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1.45 - Bangor - Buttercup. 2.5 pts win. Available at 7/2.
Several of these have been in good form recently and, of those, Buttercup is preferred. She had some fair form over hurdles and kicked off her British campaign with a useful third in a Novice race at Warwick in January. She was one length behind a horse who was rated 127 (now 139) and had a subsequent dual winner (now rated 121) a further eight lengths behind. It was therefore disappointing that she never achieved anything like that level of form in four races after. It would've taken a leap of faith to support her after those efforts but switched to fences on her reappearance last month she ran well until tiring late on, looking in need of the outing. She will need to build on that performance and, although she failed to do so last season, it may be worth giving her the benefit of the doubt from a mark of 110, fifteen pounds below her original hurdle's rating. Trip and ground will suit and she represents a yard who have had four winners from their last eight entries. Their Chasers have a very profitable 24% strike rate here in recent seasons


2.00 - Musselburgh - Final Countdown. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
It's difficult to know how much flat ability Final Countdown still has but he ran well to finish a three length second from a mark of 82 as recently as fifteen months ago. Two efforts this year have proved nowhere near as good but they came after significant breaks so there may be excuses. He eventually ended up well beaten returned to hurdles at Kelso last month but he ran well to a point. He will need to better that if he is to get involved here but he did have better form over obstacles a few seasons back and, if he can repeat anything like that level of form, he would be well handicapped in this sphere on a mark of 99. This is just his third run for an in-form yard who are enjoying by far their best season to date. Both they and the jockey turn up for just the one entry.


4.40 - Newcastle - Dutch Art Dealer. 2 pts win. Available at 11/2.
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.15 Bangor-Pithivier @ 15-8 [Bet Victor]
1.30 Musselburgh-Golden Investment @ 7-2 [Skybet]
1.45 Bangor-Buttercup @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
3.00 Musselburgh-Thankyou Very Much @ 11-4 [Boylesports]

Loss of 4pts...three 2nds
 
My bets [1pt win on each]

1.25 Hereford-Canoodle @ 11-4 [Bet Bright]
1.35 Newcastle-Oxford Thinking @ 7-2 [Race Bets]
2.15 Lingfield-Dutch Uncle @ 5-4 [Bet 365]
3.05 Newcastle-Chevallier @ 3-1 [Boylesports]
3.35 Newcastle-Dancin Alpha @ 8-1 [Bet Bright]
3.55 Hereford-Keel Haul @ 9-1 [Betfred]
 
Yesterday finished in profit when Dutch Art Dealer won at Newcastle. Buttercup was closing on the front two when coming down two out at Bangor and Final Countdown ran creditably to finish third at Musselburgh, despite looking a bit reluctant to go through with his effort.


Apologies for the lack of analysis today.


Today's Selections:


12.55 - Hereford - Rainbow Haze. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1.


3.35 - Newcastle - Cool Strutter. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.


3.55 - Hereford:
Peruvien Bleu. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.
Bobble Emerald. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.


4.05 - Newcastle - Fredericka. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 9/1.
 
My bets [1pt win on each]

1.25 Hereford-Canoodle @ 11-4 [Bet Bright]
1.35 Newcastle-Oxford Thinking @ 7-2 [Race Bets]
2.15 Lingfield-Dutch Uncle @ 5-4 [Bet 365]
3.05 Newcastle-Chevallier @ 3-1 [Boylesports]
3.35 Newcastle-Dancin Alpha @ 8-1 [Bet Bright]
3.55 Hereford-Keel Haul @ 9-1 [Betfred]

Loss of 6pts
 
My bets [1pt win on each]

1.05 Southwell-Playful Dude @ 6-4 [Race Bets]
1.20 Lingfield-Robinroyale @ 6-1 [Bet Bright]
2.00 Wolverhampton-Spiritoftomintoul @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
2.10 Southwell-Ralphy Lad @ 7-1 [Racebets]
2.20 Lingfield-Cool Sky @ 2-1 [Stan James]
2.30 Wolverhampton-Moonshine Dancer @ 15-8 [Bet Victor]
2.50 Lingfield-Label Des Obeaux @ 2-1 [Bet 365]
4.00 Wolverhampton-Party Tiger @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
 
Lingfield off so no jumps racing today [emoji20]


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2.00 - Wolverhampton - Spiritoftomintoul. 2 pts win. Available at 11/2.
Off the track for six months, Spiritoftomintoul returned at Southwell last month and was beaten a long way when finishing last of seven. That was disappointing but it could've been badly needed and he looks worth chancing back at this venue. He has run well on four of his five previous visits (reasonably well in the other) and was a winner from a two pound higher mark over C/D last February. He followed that by going close over an extended two miles here from eight pounds higher than he runs from today. The lack of obvious pace in the race is a concern for a horse who stays further but he is drawn well to gain a prominent early pitch if the gallop is not overly generous. Two wins from 27 starts isn't a strike rate to write home about but the last win did come under today's useful three pound claimer.

4.30 - Wolverhampton - Zac Brown. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 17/2.
Zac Brown has been running better than his final finishing positions suggest lately and this represents a significant drop in class. He finished in midfield last time out over six furlongs here but he was only beaten just under three lengths in a much better race than this. He was beaten three and half lengths over this C/D, again in a better race, from a nine pound higher mark in November and that added to a resume that contains numerous good performances here from higher marks against much better opposition. He is tactically versatile but, more often than not, he leads/races prominently and he is well drawn in stall one to adopt that scenario. Three of his four victories have come from higher marks than he runs from today and it will be disappointing if he doesn't get competitive at least.

5.00 - Wolverhampton - Harmonic wave. 1 pt e/w. Available at 11/1.

8.15 - Chelmsford - Hakam. 2 pts win. Available at 13/2.
 
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Goodness gracious me, Trans Express entered up at Wincanton on Saturday in the 3:15, covered by ITV 4.
Hopefully will get the nod to run tomorrow. He's due to carry 10:7, might go up a few pounds by declarations, but its still a similar weight to that carried the last twice. Rocklander franked the form, (now on 131), Space Oddity did at Exeter too, 9L eventual winner... (I don't think he's been been adjusted). Lord Of The Island franked the form with Space Oddity even though he fell. So I cannot for the life of me see how the handicapper has caught up with Trans Express. Its crystal clear to me if my logic of weights and handicapping are worth any salt (which I'm increasingly doubting as I get older)! But I don't know what will be declared tomorrow yet, so we'll see.
 
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My bets [1pt win on each]

1.05 Southwell-Playful Dude @ 6-4 [Race Bets]:)
1.20 Lingfield-Robinroyale @ 6-1 [Bet Bright] ab
2.00 Wolverhampton-Spiritoftomintoul @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
2.10 Southwell-Ralphy Lad @ 7-1 [ Race Bets) non runner
2.20 Lingfield-Cool Sky @ 2-1 [Stan James] ab
2.30 Wolverhampton-Moonshine Dancer @ 15-8 [Bet Victor]:)
2.50 Lingfield-Label Des Obeaux @ 2-1 [Bet 365] ab
4.00 Wolverhampton-Party Tiger @ 5-1 [Bet 365]

Profit of 1.38pts
 
My bets [1pt win on each]

12.35 Wetherby-Dusty Raven @ 7-2 [Betfred]
12.50 Ludlow-Ckalco Des Loges @ 11-8 [Betfred]
1.05 Wetherby-Two Swallows @ 7-2 [Betfair Sports]
1.50 Ludlow-Midnight Cowboy @ 13-2 [Bet Bright]
2.20 Ludlow-Gardiners Hill @ 6-1 [Ladbrokes]
5.00 Kempton-Eljaddaaf @ 9-2 [Boylesports]
 
Ludlow off [emoji20]but Wetherby survives [emoji4]

Hainan at 6/1 with Paddy looks reasonable value in the 1.35


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13:05 Wetherby - Midnight Silver

(Would like the ground a bit softer, but, nevertheless, will stay the 3m distance well).
 
Yesterday was a great day and finished in a nice profit. Spiritoftomintoul and Harmonic Wave both finished fourth at Wolverhampton, the latter missing out on the frame by a short head. Zak Brown lead all the way at the same track later on the card and Hakam won the concluding race at Chelmsford.

Today's Selections:

1.35 - Wetherby - Baywing. 2 pts win. Available at 11/2. (Nap)
Only seven runners but this is very competitive. Six of the field have already shown promise over fences and have plenty of upside from their current marks but it may be worth chancing the only runner to yet jump a fence in public. Baywing disappointed in a Grade Two Novice Hurdle at Haydock when last seen eleven months ago but his subsequent absence may be an indication that all was not well. Prior to that he had embarked on a sharp upward curve in four outings in handicaps, his mark rising a whopping 46 pounds in the process. That means he makes his debut over fences here from mark of 135, which is no gimme by any means, but he has the breeding and stature of a Chaser and promises to rate higher over the bigger obstacles. All his nine outings to date have been on soft/heavy ground, and his handler has been keen to state his preference for testing conditions, so today's going is probably faster than ideal but his three winning siblings were all successful on good or good/soft ground, including his full brother. He has to prove his fitness but he won at the first time of asking last season so there is optimism on that score. He represents a yard who are good at placing this type of horse; they have a very profitable 22% strike rate with their Chasers in handicaps in recent seasons.

2.30 - Kempton:
Beauchamp Opal. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.
Masquerade Bling. 1.25 pts win. Available at 10/1.

Still Waiting heads the market for this one mile handicap for three year olds but he looks plenty short enough and may be worth taking on. Beauchamp Opal progressed in her first three outings in Maiden company, two on turf and the last on the polytrack at Lingfield, before disappointing on her handicap debut at Southwell last month. Se wouldn't be the first to disappoint on Fibresand, especially on their first attempt, and she can be given another chance. The Assessor has seen fit to drop her three pounds on the back of that last effort and that could be generous if she improves again on her previous form. She represents an in-form yard who have a profitable 18% strike rate here (21% with their three year olds) and is ridden by a jockey who has recorded eight winners from 25 rides in the past fortnight. Masquerade Bling is still a maiden after nine starts and disappointed on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton last time out. However she ran well on her previous two outings at this track and she is competitively weighted with the favourite through Dominating on the first of those efforts. She has been dropped two pounds since
that run and her five pound claimer had a welcome winner yesterday, his first for a while. The yard operate from a very low strike rate but to be fair to them they do have horses of very limited ability.

Note - Kingston Tasmania is apparently better than he has shown so far and could run much better than his price (50/1) suggests. I’m loathed to put up 3 selections for a race like this but might be worth a very small e/w bet.

4.00 - Kempton - Spin Point. 1.75 pts win. Available at 7/1. (Nb)
Favourite, Duck A L'Orange, could get an uncontested lead here and it wouldn't be wise to allow him too much rope but there some viable alternatives at bigger prices and the best of those may be Spin Point. He makes just his seventh start and only his second for current connections on these shores. He showed some fair form for Jim Bolger in Ireland and wasn't disgraced when going down by six lengths on his first start for 14 months at Lingfield last time out. That was a better race than this one and the assessor has been quick to drop him two pounds. That leaves him on a very competitive mark on the balance of his form and he represents an in-form yard. The fitting of the first time cheekpieces is an interesting angle because his three winning siblings had winning form in a first time visor, blinkers and cheekpieces.

6.30 - Dundalk - Dance Alone. 2 pt win. Available at 6/1.
 
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Patent and an each way treble for me Saturday. Two tracker horses and the best handicapped hurdler in training, (Trans Express) :)

Lingfield 1:45 Arrowzone
Sandown 1:50 De Faoithesdream
Wincanton 3:15 Trans Express (nap)
 
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My bets [1pt win on each]

12.35 Wetherby-Dusty Raven @ 7-2 [Betfred]
12.50 Ludlow-Ckalco Des Loges @ 11-8 [Betfred]Ab
1.05 Wetherby-Two Swallows @ 7-2 [Betfair Sports]
1.50 Ludlow-Midnight Cowboy @ 13-2 [Bet Bright]Ab
2.20 Ludlow-Gardiners Hill @ 6-1 [Ladbrokes]Ab
5.00 Kempton-Eljaddaaf @ 9-2 [Boylesports]:)

Profit of 2.5pts
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.15 Sandown-Marcilhac @ 9-1 [Bet 365]
1.30 Wincanton-Captain McGinley @ 5-1 [Boylesports]
2.10 Newcastle-Lough Kent @ 9-1 [Bet Bright]
2.20 Lingfield-Alfred Hutchinson @ 3-1 [Ladbrokes]
 
Was there not a significant rule 4 on your winner ?
You have a very good strike rate but the prices you quote are in many cases not there ?

I tend to agree. there should be at least 3 books available on Oddschecker and don't include BOG as any serious player can't get it. That makes all of your prices quoted above miles out. Sorry but we have to get real.
 
I tend to agree. there should be at least 3 books available on Oddschecker and don't include BOG as any serious player can't get it. That makes all of your prices quoted above miles out. Sorry but we have to get real.

Hi both sorry but you are both wrong I backed the winner at 7.06 yesterday at 9/2 and was paid out with paddy power at that price. PB consistently is unreal and if you back when he puts it up then you get the price. It's not his fault the prices contract it's a good thing, it's like the people who give out about hugh Taylor's prices on at the races shortening
 
Overnight rain at Sandown has changed the going to soft (g/s places) on chase course and soft (heavy places) on hurdles course. Likely to change my betting


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