What are you backing Today?

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Market Rasen

3:20 Ask Paddy. Win 10/3

This has a nice name but much better reason it can win is because it'll love the ground and has the form.
 
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Double J said:
2.35 Newbury
Floressa looked a beautiful animal last time out, and for me she wins this race if turning up in the same form. The Nicholls mare is also one I like, but judged on their last runs, don’t think she’s as good as Floressa.

My bet is Floressa, who’s not a great price atm, but I’m putting up the forecast. These 2 should be far better than the rest and don’t see what challenges them should they both get round. Reverse it if you want to play it safe but Floressa 1st, Silver Forever 2nd pays around 7/2.
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Floressa beat on the nod by Silver Forever.

When your lucks out it’s out. An absolute mile infront of the rest. These 2 are superb mares going forward though
 
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Double J said:
Floressa beat on the nod by Silver Forever.

When your lucks out it’s out. An absolute mile infront of the rest. These 2 are superb mares going forward though
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Good to see you back in town, Double.

Sorry for telling you what you already know...if I had a race that closely down to two horses....I'd always take the reverse forecast.
 
Marb said:
Good to see you back in town, Double.

Sorry for telling you what you already know...if I had a race that closely down to two horses....I'd always take the reverse forecast.
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Thought Floressa would get the better, sticking to what I thought rather than doing the sensible thing. Was a stewards enquiry but nothing untoward for me. Correct winner, just a sickener.

Your pick then, Ask Paddy, don’t even know what to say about that race. Utter shambles comes to mind.
 
Yeah. Lost a tenner there. I thought it had a chamce. I really am keeping things to a Saturday or the bigger races.
 
Marb said:
Yeah. Lost a tenner there. I thought it had a chamce. I really am keeping things to a Saturday or the bigger races.
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Didn’t help they started off at a slugs pace, before allowing the winner to be 20 lengths ahead.

That’s my plan, been some very good midweek racing though. I’m still very sweet on Count Meribel for the 365 Gold Cup. 20/1 each way to good to be turning down. Best of luck for the season Marb, we’ll need it.
 
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Hexham 2.10 First Account 15/8 (W Hill)

In his PTP he destroyed Bright Forecast - In his Novice hurdles he was very close to Al Dancer & Windsor Avenue - 3L behind the 130 rated Captain Zebo & well in front of the 145 rated One For Rosie. Is on a mark of 114 for this Nov Hcp Chase. Why isn't he odds on?
 
No idea Chef. I've got him in as a dark horse in the TTF because he looks like the best handicapped horse in training. I've had a good bet today, but like you I worry why he isn't much shorter.
 
Maruco said:
No idea Chef. I've got him in as a dark horse in the TTF because he looks like the best handicapped horse in training. I've had a good bet today, but like you I worry why he isn't much shorter.
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7/4 with 365 from 13/8. I’ve also had a very ‘strong’ bet. 9/4 opening with 365 last night. Shortened to 6/4 but back out to 7/4 now.

Doubled it with Mystic Dreamer in the 3.05 at Fontwell as well.

First Account should win his race, but I watched something on ATR other day. The host (can’t remember his name) put up Oscar Wilde as his dark Horse for the season. Opened at 6s last night and now into 7/2. I know nothing about the horse to be honest other than what this bloke said.
 
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Double J said:
7/4 with 365 from 13/8. I’ve also had a very ‘strong’ bet. 9/4 opening with 365 last night. Shortened to 6/4 but back out to 7/4 now.

Doubled it with Mystic Dreamer in the 3.05 at Fontwell as well.

First Account should win his race, but I watched something on ATR other day. The host (can’t remember his name) put up Oscar Wilde as his dark Horse for the season. Opened at 6s last night and now into 7/2. I know nothing about the horse to be honest other than what this bloke said.
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Out to 5/2 with some now. Something not right here. On the face of it you could say heavy ground, first time out giving 4lbs to Oscar Wilde, who has the benefit of a run are the factors for the market swing. Would fear word is out from the McCain stable that First Account is not off today. Maybe they'll come for him again now with the generous price?
 
Double Handful said:
Out to 5/2 with some now. Something not right here. On the face of it you could say heavy ground, first time out giving 4lbs to Oscar Wilde, who has the benefit of a run are the factors for the market swing. Would fear word is out from the McCain stable that First Account is not off today. Maybe they'll come for him again now with the generous price?
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1/6 in running, other horse came from nowhere after a shoddy round of jumping. Give up with this game me. Could have needed the run as it tired up the hill, maybe getting saved for another day.
 
I don't think he was being saved, possibly needed it, and needs to brush up his jumping. Compensation next time.
 
Won't bore you with the detail, but I can't see Shallow Hall 6.05N out of the frame.
Currently 8/1 (4 places with a few firms)
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All the rain seems to have slowed down the near side rail at Newcastle, which i usually prefer, but does seem that middle to low have an advantage tonight, 2 horses have won from stall 1. Which makes me a lot more confident in the chances of Jeffrey Harris, bolted up here lto over 6fs and dropped back to 5fs tonight, but his 5lbs rise is negated by his apprentices 7lb claim. Only other win was over Muss flying 5fs on Good ground off 60-3, and ran a decent race at Ayr over 5fs off 55 in an Amateur race this year.
Has come in for some heavy support on a couple of recent runs but they were on GS/Soft ground, may be better on better ground which hopefully tonights track rides like. 6/1 at the moment and 7/1 on BF, expect he'll be delivered late.
 
Busy in work so just the one today.

Oldgrangewood 2.05 Aintree 11/2
First time running since the wind op, think Skelton has a stupidly high strike rate for first time runners since a wind op, not sure of the percentage but certainly one that catches my interest. Add the decent handicap mark as no win for a couple of years, one I’d rather be on side with today.
 
Have a little venture over the jumps today, hoping to keep up the good run.
Charlie Snow Angel in the 2.30 Kelso has a decent record here, winning off 95 and a nose 2nd off 94, runs off 94 today, goes well on heavy and gets a load of weight at least a stone from every other horse, beat Halcyon Days here 18 months ago and is 9lb better in with that horse. Fitness has to be taken on trust as stable only had 1 runner so far, but this horse has had 2 2nds 1st time out, and has been placed in 11-19 races, EW bet for me.
 
CSA just got up for 3rd, will be better for the run.
7.10 Southwell.
Wouldn't say looks vulnerable, but Sommer Katze in the 7.10 Southwell is an odd one, 2nd at Leicester on heavy to a 66/1 shot, the 1st and 3rd horse are next to useless, and the odds on shot in the race may not have performed on Heavy going. This horses sires form is all on soft/heavy ground in France and the few progeny that have won have done so on soft ground.
Some will say ideally suited to Sthwll then but not necessarily.
Arthur Shelby ran at Newcastle in a much better race, down the field but the fastest 7f race that night, although the others were 2 yo races, the filies race ran 0.4 secs slower, has seen the 1st 4 win nto.
Arthurs trainer D Griffiths has never had a 1st time out winner that i can find, so probably not fully wound up, but was pretty close up to 2fs out. Has full brothers that have won on the AW but not at Sthwll. Henry the Sixth was last on debut over 6fs here btn 37 lengths, its sire Milk It Mick is just 2% SR over 7fs and 5% SR on AW, dam won 5 races at Sthwll but never over more than 5fs although placed over 6fs, never ran over 7fs.
Jeans Mate was btn 27 lengths on debut, sire was decent over 5/6fs but didn’t appear to stay over 6fs, won 1 race his 2nd as a 2 yo but had plenty of decent placed form inc in Group races. Has had only a few offspring and none have won on the AW and only 1 winner from 25 runs over 7fs in a seller on GF ground.
Very difficult to be definite but at the odds i'll be laying this fav for a few quid and hoping, but could bolt up with its breeding but form of only race is very poor. Backed Arthur at 7/1 EW with 365 and to be 2nd to fav about 7/4. The other 2 horses ran very poorly on their respective debut runs,
 
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