What are you backing Today?

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When I first started following racing in the late 1990s as a teenager my abiding memories of Paddy Power Gold Cup day were trainer Martin Pipe winning everything, with four or five timers a regular occurrence. A controversial trainer no doubt, but anyways....

Given I haven't a clue what wins tomorrow, I'm taking a little chance on David Pipe's horses. He seems to have three or four live hopes.

Cheltenham

12:30 Adagio

1:05 Whatamoment

2:15 Siruh Du Lac

2:50 Dell Arca N/R - Scu rides Poker Play

3:25 Keppage



Fingers crossed.
 
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2.15 Cheltenham-Siruh Du Lac

Each Way @ 9-1 [Paddy Power] 6 places

To improve now in the care of the Pipe stable
 
Where my thoughts are heading (written at teatime yesterday). I've edited it in red.

Chel 1.05 - I took 50/1 Lamanver Pippin for the Hennessy a day or two after the weights came out but the trainer seems to feel the Welsh National is a more likely target. He’ll be a few pounds out of the weights for Newbury and wouldn’t pick up a penalty for this race but it would still be a nice prize to earn along the way. Deep down I don’t believe Lamanver Pippin is fast enough for a Hennessy even off bottom weight or will stay well enough for a Welsh National since he was slowing down a great deal through the last half-mile of the NH Chase when last seen, losing over 25 lengths to Ravenhill and Lord Du Mesnil from three out to the line. He’s young enough to improve a fair bit into his second season and could win this but I can let him go at the head of the betting (11/2 jf tops teatime Friday). At 7/1 I prefer the look of Storm Control who is top-rated overall and has the best jockey in the race but a win for the Tizzard horse won’t displease me. Had to settle for 6/1 this morning.

Chel 1.40 - I would be happy just to watch this race but Quel Destin strikes me as seriously over-priced at around 5/1. I backed Fusil Raffles for the Arkle after reading Simon Rowlands’s assessment of his recent win – he suggested few contenders would put up a performance of that merit between now and March – but that win represented a big step up from his hurdles form and Quel Destin not only was a better hurdler (on ORs) but gets 3lbs here and is entitled to improve just as much for the switch to chasing. He is also entitled to be regarded as an Arkle contender. Again had to settle for 4/1 this morning.

Chel 2.50 - This might not be a very deep race. A lot of them are relative failures as chasers starting back over hurdles. Tea Clipper is the progressive one but his position at the head of the market presumes he’s improved enough to win, which might be an over-presumption. At around 14/1 Tobefair looks to have been under-estimated yet again at his favourite track. He’s a solid each-way punt. Two of the market leaders, including Tea Clipper, have come out so everything has been cut. Took 10/1 to the extra place.

Chel 3.25 - Plenty of these are entitled to improve into their second season but it’s also Shinobi’s second season and he looks to have already stepped up. The official handicapper and RPRs have taken a modest view of his win last month but he gave 6lbs and 14-length beating to a 120-rated opponent who went off at just 2/1 and seemed to have no excuses. I’ve taken the glass-half-full approach and allowed him full kudos for the performance and it’s possible he can improve again so 17/2 is some price if I’m justified. Son Of Camas was last seen in the Ballymore but was 50/1 on the day so clearly not a great deal was expected and I can’t back him at 11/4. Nebuchadnezzar might be worth a saver at 20/1 representing the yard of the short-shot Shinobi beat. Shinobi seems very weak this morning but I'm not put off. I took 14/1 and an ew double with Tobefair but in the time I've been typing this Shinobi has been taken out. I'll settle for an each-way pop at Nebuchadnezzar at 33/1 with the extra place on offer.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Where my thoughts are heading (written at teatime yesterday). I've edited it in red.

Chel 1.05 - I took 50/1 Lamanver Pippin for the Hennessy a day or two after the weights came out but the trainer seems to feel the Welsh National is a more likely target. He’ll be a few pounds out of the weights for Newbury and wouldn’t pick up a penalty for this race but it would still be a nice prize to earn along the way. Deep down I don’t believe Lamanver Pippin is fast enough for a Hennessy even off bottom weight or will stay well enough for a Welsh National since he was slowing down a great deal through the last half-mile of the NH Chase when last seen, losing over 25 lengths to Ravenhill and Lord Du Mesnil from three out to the line. He’s young enough to improve a fair bit into his second season and could win this but I can let him go at the head of the betting (11/2 jf tops teatime Friday). At 7/1 I prefer the look of Storm Control who is top-rated overall and has the best jockey in the race but a win for the Tizzard horse won’t displease me. Had to settle for 6/1 this morning.
Click to expand...

I'll take that for starters...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Where my thoughts are heading (written at teatime yesterday). I've edited it in red.

...

Chel 2.50 - This might not be a very deep race. A lot of them are relative failures as chasers starting back over hurdles. Tea Clipper is the progressive one but his position at the head of the market presumes he’s improved enough to win, which might be an over-presumption. At around 14/1 Tobefair looks to have been under-estimated yet again at his favourite track. He’s a solid each-way punt. Two of the market leaders, including Tea Clipper, have come out so everything has been cut. Took 10/1 to the extra place.
Click to expand...

Got the extra place with the BOG. I'll take that but I think it ended up a better race than I'd thought.
 
Was hoping Whatsupwithyou had got me out trouble today until I saw him go for home way too early. A useful lesson for the claiming jockey but I’d prefer not to have to pay for his education [emoji17]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Based on timed ground, rather than official descriptions, I reckon Riders Onthe Storm is the only horse in the Shloer that'll perform near his best on the likely hvy and his stamina will prove to be an asset.
General 5/1 looks a steal.
 
Sweet Promise 4.40W was dropped in, last behind the whole field, when trying a new trip at Kempton, latest. In a better race than this, and off a steady pace, he ran a piece better than the bare form suggests. Dropped back in trip, already a C&D winner, and Wm Buick retaining the ride, are all portents for a better perfomance today.
8/1- 4places Wm Hill
 
2 for tomorrow at Kempton, both ew + the double.
Romsey 6.55 14/1 B365.
Island Brave 7.25 20/1 B365
 
Acquiescent 5.30D Improving filly, capable claimer, handy draw - what could possibly go wrong? :)
7/1 betfair.
 
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I only looked at the one race today, the Ascot 2.05.

Last night I wrote elsewhere:

This might be a decent little race. The top two in the table [DIFTV & DD] are easy to ignore as being either in decline or unlikely to improve. The ones I like the look of are Earlofthecotswolds, Drumcliff and Espoir De Guye but I wouldn’t put it past Nicholls to get better form out of Red Risk who heads the market so might therefore be opening iup some value on the more fanciable ones.

Earlofthecotswolds has been prepped over hurdles but was a promising novice chaser last season (11/8f to beat Rouge Vif at levels last October) and was only 16/1 for the race Imperial Aura won at the festival. He could be 10lbs better this season.

Drumcliff was a promising novice two seasons ago and was only 14/1 for the Galway Plate in 2018 off 142. He’s now 13lbs lower after a spell in the doldrums following his fall in that race and wears pieces for the first time.

Espoir De Guye is another second-season novice who could therefore find 10lbs on his rating. He was only 8/1 for Imperial Aura’s race but pulled up. Before that he’d been very impressive here, hammering My Way (Nicholls’s job horse in the Badger) easing down. This is his first run following a wind op.

Espoir De Guye might be value at around 100/30 but I’ll also have to take some of the 14/1 on offer about Drumcliff. With JP you never know what the real target is but he does like Ascot handicaps.

This morning, Red Risk has gone out to 10/3 and EDG to 7/2 but Earlofthecotswolds appears to be the one of the market leaders attracting the money. So too does Drumcliff and I couldn't get any better than 12/1, which is a wee bit annoying. Still, swings and roundabouts, I suppose. I wasn't expecting to get 7/2 EDG.
 
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Blimey, Desert, you do pick the hard ones :)

Espoir de Guye must be the stand out, but VW horses are mostly firing blanks at the moment. Nonetheless I can’t really see past him.
 
EDG out to 9/2. Fuxake. :(

I was hoping Deutsch would make all and power away before the home turn.
 
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I’ve had to back Deauville Dancer because I used to follow him on the flat and every time I ignore a sentimental bet I regret it.
 
And a successful challenge, Desert. Nice one.

I thought Espoir de Guye jumped superbly and given that VW horses seem to need the run he’ll come on for it as well.
 
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