What are you backing Today?

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Karma. My one bet falls and then takes out my other bet. Not the first time that has happened either. However I had a last minute bet on EDG with some of my Sayar winnings.
 
I said to Mrs O at the finish, "I've just backed the winner of that race and it's going to be disqualified for omitting the last fence. The first three are going to be disqualified," and laughed about it (hence my 'you couldn't make it up remark' before).

Very pleased to have got the win with EDG and place return with D/c.

Things are looking up :lol:
 
Yes I thought the front three had been carried out by the loose horse. So did the commentator who only realised the fence had been dolled off after they went past. Nice one DO I picked out EDG last night but almost let this morning’s drift put me off but ended up taking 7/2 so comfortably beat the SP


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Thanks are also due to Sean Bowen on Drumcliff for making sure Sam T-D couldn't get in between him and EDG otherwise EOTC might have got up (which really would have been a sickener!)
 
I think EDG was more inconvenienced by the loose horse than the other two


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Only proper bet today is Third Wind in the handicap hurdle at Haydock. Tracker horse from the Festival, he seemed to need the run fto at Newbury. 8/1 for 4 places.

I've bunged a few others in doubles:
Cash Back at Naas. Gets a nice chunk of weight from Fakir and Notebook
First Flow at Ascot. Magic Saint won well last week but with his jockey taking 3 rather than 5 off today he's effectively 9 pounds higher. Only wory with the selection and what stops him being a proper bet is the ground. Will it be soft enough for him.
Call Me Lord. Have to be against Laurina.
Itchy Feet at Ascot. Yes the stable form is a worry but back RH 9/2 is too big
Master Tommytucker at Haydock. 15/8 too big against his field today.
 
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My thoughts on today's races (written at teatime on Friday), minus the ratings which are too much of a bugger to edit for inclusion in this format:

Hay 12.40 - Claud and Goldie is lightly enough raced possibly to be still improving but, rising twelve, I’d want big odds about its happening. I prefer the second-season novices so Diese Aba, Newtide and Secret Reprieve make the short list. Snow Leopardess could still be well in over fences but this is her first season over the bigger obstacles and might be lacking in experience. I’ll risk leaving Secret Reprieve out of calculations, purely on comparative ratings, and back the other two.

Hay 1.15 - Again, it’s the second-season novices that appeal. It’s a very tight race and I wouldn’t rule out anything. I’ll probably go with Dashel Drasher who is still rated on his hurdles form but took Champ on twice last season before winning a race for which he couldn’t go up the ratings.

Hay 1.50 - One thing that struck me last season about hurdles races here was how many leaders slow down dramatically up the run-in and something closes them down late. It seemed to happen at nearly every televised meeting, especially in soft ground. Sam Twiston-Davies is by far the winningmost jockey over hurdles in the last three years so I presume he understands the track more than most although, to be fair, The New One would have accounted for several of his wins. Our Power has already shown improvement this season so I have left the ‘nov’ tag off his mark but it might still apply and with the stable in much better from than this time last month when he reappeared I will be backing him for this. Umbrigado also merits a bet since he’s top rated, ahead of the norm for the race and the yard tends to target certain valuable races here.

Hay 2.25 - It’s hard to know what to make of Sam T-D’s ride Faubourg Rosetgri who’s making his British debut but he’s very exposed in France so I would hope the handicapper has his measure. Evan Williams said in his stable tour that he didn’t think Clyne fuly stays three miles so I’m letting the old favourite go. Third Wind and Relegate were fourth and fifth respectively in the Pertemps Final, the finish of which was dominated by Irish horses except Third Wind. It should be very close here again and if both are trying both will probably be placed at worst. Much was made of the ride Relegate got that day but Third Wind spent most of the race behind her and made his move sooner. He’s maybe got the more scope for improvement so he gets the saver nomination. I’ve backed Main Fact for both the Champion Hurdle (66/1) and Stayers’ Hurdle (50/1) as there is simply no way of knowing when and where his steep curve will plateau. If he wins this he’ll go up at least 5lbs. If he hacks up it could be 10lbs which will take him into the same ball park as last season’s principals and improvement beyond that would take him closer to Paisley park. He is the main bet. Imperial Alcazar might be the best of the rest into his second season.

Hay 3.00 - I can’t help thinking Nicholls will leave a little to work on with Clan Des Obeaux with the King George in mind. That will be his Gold Cup. The chances are Twiston-Davies will have this as Bristol De Mai’s Gold Cup and if he’s at his peak, which I don’t think he was in this race last year, he could jump them into submission. I might just watch the race but if I do have a bet it will be him.

Asc 2.05 - I think at the 5/1 outsider of the field Black Corton might be a little bit of value. In much the same way as with Frodon, the market tends to under-rate its overall level and it shouldn’t be forgotten that his top OR of 166 is only one behind Real Steel’s and he gets 6lb plus has the benefit of a run. I think he’s a bet.

Asc 2.40 - I can’t back Laurina but don’t want to oppose her. No bet.

Asc 3.17 - I took 25/1 Marracudja midweek when I saw Paul Kealy tip it as I expected it to contract. It’s still 22s in a couple of places but generally 16-20/1 and 14s with one bookie. I have a higher rating than in the table for its third to Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux but don’t know if it can be taken literally even though he had Janika (OR 165) and Capeland (153) miles behind. The main bet, though, has to be Capeland. I had huge figures for both his races here last season against Diego Du Charmil and no matter how I look at the form they seem to stack up. I took 9/2 this evening as I can see it halving in price through the morning. I can’t see past these two.
 
Trixie today, Bristol de Mai, Real Steel and Gars En Noir at Naas. Probably will back BdM if I've nothing running by then.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 2.05 - I think at the 5/1 outsider of the field Black Corton might be a little bit of value. In much the same way as with Frodon, the market tends to under-rate its overall level and it shouldn’t be forgotten that his top OR of 166 is only one behind Real Steel’s and he gets 6lb plus has the benefit of a run. I think he’s a bet.
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This is a fascinating ratings race. Real Steel and Itchy Feet acquired there's in graded races whereas Imperial Aura and Black Corton came via handicaps. I prefer the former to be honest, I think they are more realistic.
 
My strongest bet of the day is First Flow in the 2m handicap chase at Ascot (9/2 in a couple of spots).

Trip and ground are perfect for him, and Kim Bailey continues to be in flying form.
 
Btw, noticed that Laddies and Coral are back on Oddschecker, this morning.
 
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Euronymous said:
Is the ground perfect for him though Nick, I fancy him but could it have tried to g/s by race time?
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I thought it took a bit of getting yesterday, Euro, and reckon it will be soft enough for him.

Edit: I should add, it’s a visual assessment only - no idea what yesterday’s times might suggest.
 
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Had to back Claud and Goldie at Haydock. So lightly raced and never runs a bad one. Connections only seem to run him when there’s a chance of placing and he’s got a decent enough ew price. And I did back Clyne at 50’s in my not discounting old favourites policy. Especially with Evan Williams doing so well at the moment. My Sayar winnings have given me pennies to throw at old favourites.
 
Outer of the three for me in the Ascot Hurdle.

Even though she might be rejuvenated by the move to Nicholls, I just can’t trust Laurina after a massively disappointing last season, and Call Me Lord......I dunno.....have a suspicion his form isn’t all it’s cracked-up to be, and that he might not like it up him.

Song For Someone had the look of a still-progressive horse to me last season, and with Symond’s yard still bombing along nicely, I’ll take my chances.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hay 1.50 - One thing that struck me last season about hurdles races here was how many leaders slow down dramatically up the run-in and something closes them down late. It seemed to happen at nearly every televised meeting, especially in soft ground.
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Happened again in the 12.10 there.
 
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