What are you backing Today?

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reet hard said:
Right place TCM; welcome to the forum.

Slomo 11.35S showed plenty of speed , to lead from the outside draw at Wolves, but couldn't maintain over the stiffer 6 at Southwell.
Today's furlong shorter maybe right up his street.
7/1 B365
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Nice one reet
 
Cannot for the life of me understand why Mrs Hyde is as big as 3/1 (Powers) tomorrow.

I think she is an absolute cert.
 
I don’t usually do this. But I’ve been doing oright recently, I’ll post my selections for tomorrow. If most of them get stuffed I’ll stop doing it again to save the embarrassment :ninja:

Newbury
12.10 - Mrs Hyde
12.40 - Next Destination
2.25 - Marie’s Rock (have it covered with 13-2 about Botox Has)
3.00 - The Conditional. Also been drawn into backing Black Op. (Had Danny Whizzbang at 33s, but I’m no longer confident)
3.35 - Zanza

Newcastle
2.05 - A wheelbarrow full on Epatante. Will be head in hands watching this race.
3.15 - Whatmore

Fairyhouse
11.30 - Monkfish in a no bet race
1.01 - Minella Melody

Can’t be arsed typing up why I’ve backed them.
 
SNUGSBOROUGH HALL 1230 fairy 9/2 ish

My fav jockey Graham Bradley is riding it.sorry I meant Denis O'Regan,same thing.
 
E/W Patent
1.50 Christopher Wood 14/1. will relish the extra 4 furlongs.
1.15 Doctor Dex 10/1. stable picking off some nice pots lately, another who will relish the extra distance and goes well fresh.
3.0 Cloth Cap 10/. with the faster ground prevailing, he will be running on for a place or running away with the race.
 
Stuff I wrote elsewhere yesterday evening (with a few minor edits this morning):

Nwb 12.40 - This race is always worth watching, the last five winners being Danny Whizzbang, Santini, Elegant Escape, Thistlecrack and Native River. I had geared myself up for a watching brief but Hold The Note is third favourite and looking a wee bit friendless in the teatime market so I plan to keep an eye on it through the evening to see if that changes because it is arguably entitled to win. I’m high with its rating but so are RPRs and he represents the Imperial Aura festival form. Next Destination has something to prove but not as much as the others.

Nwb 1.15 - Kapcorse is overnight favourite but I can let it go after two years off. The chances are if it’s really any good it will be campaigning for a bigger race somewhere down the line. The ones I like are Rocky’s Treasure, Highest Sun, Champagne Court, The Bay Birch and Orchardstown Cross. Dingle is doing better for the trainer than Griffiths and Champagne Court has a few disappointments to put behind him so I’m letting that one go. Rocky’s Treasure presumably had some kind of problem last season and fell too early last time to know if he’s back in form but the stable certainly is in form and his form of two seasons ago gives him a serious shout. He was four lengths second to Santini at levels in the John Francome, won a G2 by 17 lengths at Doncaster and two runs later was 2/1f for the Grimthorpe off 149. If he’d been up to winning an average renewal of that race he could have been expected to go up to 156 so he really is potentially well in here. Nothing much went right for Highest Sun on his reappearance yet he hit a mark very close to last season’s best so he can be expected to improve a good bit. The Bay Birch has a similar profile to previous winner O’Maonlai in that he’s well in on older form but he’s been handicapped to win decent races for long enough and has failed. He went up to a peak OR of 152 in October ’19 for winning a decent Saturday race at Chepstow but hasn’t been near that since. On the few occasions I’ve backed him he seemed not to enjoy being crowded and went better once taken wide. He can’t afford to do that in a field this size and probably can’t afford to try and make the pace as he won’t get an easy lead. JP McManus’s four runners all carry Peter O’Sullevan’s colours so that chances are he wants to win it. His best chance on my figures is Brelan D’As (white cap, as per JP’s normal first colours) but he’s vulnerable if Rocky’s Treasure and/or Highest Sun fulfil my hopes for them. They will be my two against the field with Brelan D’As to cover them.

Nwb 1.50 - I don’t have any strong views on this race. The overnight favourite Tea Clipper is maybe on the steepest curve but he’ll need to be. The three against the field for me are Hang In There (11/1, blue), Howling Milan (14/1, blue in places) and Lord Lamington (40/1, weak). Hang In There went up to 145 for winning the Supreme Trial race last November. He was then running a good race behind Shishkin when tipping up two out in the Sidney Banks. He wasn’t seen again until this season and has two poor runs to forgive but the market strength this evening suggests better is expected. Howling Milan reverts to hurdles having failed to cut it over fences but was three lengths clear and going strongly here in December when falling at the last off 125. The slight worry is that he disappointed in this race before then so maybe they’re targeting the next meeting. That said, he’s 4lbs lower now than in this race last year. Last time, Lord Lamington’s jockey appeared to deliberately drop the horse out just when it looked likely to mount a challenge and is probably a lot better than we saw. However, the trainer said this week he is “definitely on too high a mark” so that probably explains the market weakness. I’m going to let him go.

Nwb 2.25 - I took 3/1 Marie’s Rock (now 7/4 tops) when the entries were released on Monday after reading on the forum that she’s seen as having similar potential to last year’s winner Epatante at the same stage. I suspect Epatante exceeded those expectations but there’s still plenty to like about Marie’s Rock. She was Hendo’s ‘one’ for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the festival but had to miss it. She would probably have run Concertista close and earned a mark in the mid-high 140s and can be expected to find another 10lbs this season. Epatante had last year’s field strung out like washing so Marie’s Rock – rated 4lbs higher now than Epatante was that day – only has to be in the same ball park to win. The other one I like is Millers Bank. He was on a steep curve last season but disappointed on his return. He’s since had a wind op and wears a tongue-tie for the first time. As a second-season novice he can reasonably be expected to improve again so I’ll be backing him both at the 33/1 (or maybe better in the morning) and in the market without Marie’s Rock.

Nwb 3.35 - It’s good to see this race going back up in value after some time in decline. Marracudja set off prominently last time, making me think it was trying (well backed on the day) but the eventual principals came from well back, suggesting they went over-fast up front. This is a lesser race and he could do it this time. Zanza showed big improvement last time, as you’d want from a second-season novice, so it remains to be seen how much more he can improve. I wouldn’t want to look past these two for the potential winner. At 18/1 and 4/1 respectively I can back both.

Nwc 2.05 - This should be a lap of honour for Epatante.

Nwc 3.15 - I thought Whatmore got a dreadful ride (RJ, ’nuff said) last time against Regal Encore but I went high with the form anyway so I reckon he’s a good bit better than we saw that day. The Butcher Said is entitled to keep improving, being a novice, I wouldn’t want to look past these two. They’re two of the front three in the betting, though, so I’ll have to have a think about having a bet.


It's a very heavy day's punting in terms of aggregate output and I can't say I'm entirely confident about anything. If I have a good day it could be a very good day. A Bad Day at Black Rock and neighbourhood cats would be well advised to give me a wide berth.
 
A double.

Watford vs Preston - I’m a Preston fan, the manager is about to sacked, terribly out of form. For this game, away at one of the best teams in the league. We have 0 full backs available. We will genuinely have to use strikers at either full back position. He may possibly play Scott Sinclair at left back.
You can get Watford at a general 10/11 price now. It’s an obscene price for something I think is an absolute foregone conclusion.

2.05 Newcastle - Epatante. No explanation needed.

The double pays just under 3/1 with 365. Absolutely ridiculous odds.
 
3.35 Newbury
Hatcher should appreciate this return to a flatter track and the 11/1 available with Bet365 has tempted me


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Not So Sleepy in the Fighting Fifth looks to be strong in the betting.

40s into a general 20s now. I bet they'd be delighted if he finished in the first three.
 
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Marb said:
Not So Sleepy in the Fighting Fifth looks to be strong in the betting.

40s into a general 20s now. I bet they'd be delighted if he finished in the first three.
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When your luck is out...

Goodness me.
 
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viking said:
3.35 Newbury
Hatcher should appreciate this return to a flatter track and the 11/1 available with Bet365 has tempted me


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What the f*** did Harry Skelton think he was doing there


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Double J said:
A double.

Watford vs Preston - I’m a Preston fan, the manager is about to sacked, terribly out of form. For this game, away at one of the best teams in the league. We have 0 full backs available. We will genuinely have to use strikers at either full back position. He may possibly play Scott Sinclair at left back.
You can get Watford at a general 10/11 price now. It’s an obscene price for something I think is an absolute foregone conclusion.

2.05 Newcastle - Epatante. No explanation needed.

The double pays just under 3/1 with 365. Absolutely ridiculous odds.
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Easiest double you’ll ever see.

Both criminal odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Stuff I wrote elsewhere yesterday evening (with a few minor edits this morning):

Nwb 12.40 - This race is always worth watching, the last five winners being Danny Whizzbang, Santini, Elegant Escape, Thistlecrack and Native River. I had geared myself up for a watching brief but Hold The Note is third favourite and looking a wee bit friendless in the teatime market so I plan to keep an eye on it through the evening to see if that changes because it is arguably entitled to win. I’m high with its rating but so are RPRs and he represents the Imperial Aura festival form. Next Destination has something to prove but not as much as the others.

Nwb 1.15 - Kapcorse is overnight favourite but I can let it go after two years off. The chances are if it’s really any good it will be campaigning for a bigger race somewhere down the line. The ones I like are Rocky’s Treasure, Highest Sun, Champagne Court, The Bay Birch and Orchardstown Cross. Dingle is doing better for the trainer than Griffiths and Champagne Court has a few disappointments to put behind him so I’m letting that one go. Rocky’s Treasure presumably had some kind of problem last season and fell too early last time to know if he’s back in form but the stable certainly is in form and his form of two seasons ago gives him a serious shout. He was four lengths second to Santini at levels in the John Francome, won a G2 by 17 lengths at Doncaster and two runs later was 2/1f for the Grimthorpe off 149. If he’d been up to winning an average renewal of that race he could have been expected to go up to 156 so he really is potentially well in here. Nothing much went right for Highest Sun on his reappearance yet he hit a mark very close to last season’s best so he can be expected to improve a good bit. The Bay Birch has a similar profile to previous winner O’Maonlai in that he’s well in on older form but he’s been handicapped to win decent races for long enough and has failed. He went up to a peak OR of 152 in October ’19 for winning a decent Saturday race at Chepstow but hasn’t been near that since. On the few occasions I’ve backed him he seemed not to enjoy being crowded and went better once taken wide. He can’t afford to do that in a field this size and probably can’t afford to try and make the pace as he won’t get an easy lead. JP McManus’s four runners all carry Peter O’Sullevan’s colours so that chances are he wants to win it. His best chance on my figures is Brelan D’As (white cap, as per JP’s normal first colours) but he’s vulnerable if Rocky’s Treasure and/or Highest Sun fulfil my hopes for them. They will be my two against the field with Brelan D’As to cover them.

Nwb 1.50 - I don’t have any strong views on this race. The overnight favourite Tea Clipper is maybe on the steepest curve but he’ll need to be. The three against the field for me are Hang In There (11/1, blue), Howling Milan (14/1, blue in places) and Lord Lamington (40/1, weak). Hang In There went up to 145 for winning the Supreme Trial race last November. He was then running a good race behind Shishkin when tipping up two out in the Sidney Banks. He wasn’t seen again until this season and has two poor runs to forgive but the market strength this evening suggests better is expected. Howling Milan reverts to hurdles having failed to cut it over fences but was three lengths clear and going strongly here in December when falling at the last off 125. The slight worry is that he disappointed in this race before then so maybe they’re targeting the next meeting. That said, he’s 4lbs lower now than in this race last year. Last time, Lord Lamington’s jockey appeared to deliberately drop the horse out just when it looked likely to mount a challenge and is probably a lot better than we saw. However, the trainer said this week he is “definitely on too high a mark” so that probably explains the market weakness. I’m going to let him go.

Nwb 2.25 - I took 3/1 Marie’s Rock (now 7/4 tops) when the entries were released on Monday after reading on the forum that she’s seen as having similar potential to last year’s winner Epatante at the same stage. I suspect Epatante exceeded those expectations but there’s still plenty to like about Marie’s Rock. She was Hendo’s ‘one’ for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the festival but had to miss it. She would probably have run Concertista close and earned a mark in the mid-high 140s and can be expected to find another 10lbs this season. Epatante had last year’s field strung out like washing so Marie’s Rock – rated 4lbs higher now than Epatante was that day – only has to be in the same ball park to win. The other one I like is Millers Bank. He was on a steep curve last season but disappointed on his return. He’s since had a wind op and wears a tongue-tie for the first time. As a second-season novice he can reasonably be expected to improve again so I’ll be backing him both at the 33/1 (or maybe better in the morning) and in the market without Marie’s Rock.

Nwb 3.35 - It’s good to see this race going back up in value after some time in decline. Marracudja set off prominently last time, making me think it was trying (well backed on the day) but the eventual principals came from well back, suggesting they went over-fast up front. This is a lesser race and he could do it this time. Zanza showed big improvement last time, as you’d want from a second-season novice, so it remains to be seen how much more he can improve. I wouldn’t want to look past these two for the potential winner. At 18/1 and 4/1 respectively I can back both.

Nwc 2.05 - This should be a lap of honour for Epatante.

Nwc 3.15 - I thought Whatmore got a dreadful ride (RJ, ’nuff said) last time against Regal Encore but I went high with the form anyway so I reckon he’s a good bit better than we saw that day. The Butcher Said is entitled to keep improving, being a novice, I wouldn’t want to look past these two. They’re two of the front three in the betting, though, so I’ll have to have a think about having a bet.


It's a very heavy day's punting in terms of aggregate output and I can't say I'm entirely confident about anything. If I have a good day it could be a very good day. A Bad Day at Black Rock and neighbourhood cats would be well advised to give me a wide berth.
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That's half an hour of my life I'll never get back :(
 
I agree with reet 7.0 wolves
[FONT=&quot]Ghaith 9/1 ew[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Reasons-[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] Bogged down in mud lto couldnt lead ignore that run haydock is hock deep when heavy[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]26 sep comeback run ran a huge race not surprising got overhauled in last furlong[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]March - listed race this is c3[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]5 feb everything went wrong inc jock lost iron[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]won 2 in a row at wolves before this[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The fav Harrisons point has the best recent form I wouldnt put anyone off it but its a bit short.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Hopefully Gaith can get a good start lead or be up with pace and place at least.[/FONT]
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's half an hour of my life I'll never get back :(
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Well, it was an interesting half hour.

In hindsight, Henderson’s comment this morning about Floressa smacks of getting one’s defence in early “She is a very high class mare who is extremely capable of running a big race here but I do have an inkling she’d want a little bit further and I genuinely feel Marie’s Rock would have the greater chance of the two.”
 
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Really feeling the covid emptiness today- Drinmore Day is my 3rd favourite day out racing in normal times.

Will ew double Art's horse with Dromore Lad in the HC Chase. The rest is just for watching.
 
barjon said:
Well, it was an interesting half hour.

In hindsight, Henderson’s comment this morning about Floressa smacks of getting one’s defence in early “She is a very high class mare who is extremely capable of running a big race here but I do have an inkling she’d want a little bit further and I genuinely feel Marie’s Rock would have the greater chance of the two.”
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If I'd seen that before the race I would have backed Floressa. As I said, I was on MR at 3/1 earlier in the week so was happy to let it ride but that quote translates [to me] as, "Floressa will win but Marie's Rock will prove the better in due course."

(Isn't hindsight wonderful? :lol:)
 
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