What are you backing Today?

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The few pictures we did see suggested to me that Allaho wasn't there to be competitive. Very unsatisfactory on every level.
 
Desert Orchid said:
When it comes to animal intelligence I believe horses are not far behind dogs and dolphins and fully understand that they can 'remember' bad experiences and not want to go through them again. For me, that makes such a horse much more intelligent than the type that would walk through a fence race after race and want more although I'd prefer to back the latter!
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My Muppet is very intelligent, of which the huge disadvantage is he gets bored and shows it. Stops dead on the 10th time of doing a figure of 8. You can see him thinking ' I've done that to death already, can I do something else - why can't I go over there- what's going on over there- who's that - what's he doing - what he's got - got any sweets - where's my Nanny - Nanny tell them I'm boorreeddddddddd.......He's a nightmare. If he keeps going his 'head shaking' is the other sign, he's saying 'no no no no no booreeddddddd....
When he was broken in, the guy doing it who knows his stuff ,said you could hear him 'thinking' 'why, why why , what what what why....... etc. When he stops and just gets in with it , he's actually moves really well and goes really well ( obviously as much as you can tell when a 4 year old muppet ) but I fear first time at the races, he will be overwhelmed with all the new noises and sights and the actual 'race' will be a disaster. If times were normal , I would have liked him to for a racecourse gallop/ day out to try and 'walk' him through the experience.
I have also, in words of one syllable, said that I do not want him to go on bad ground as he will remember it and I don't want him soured by it. I would also like to walk with him as he is the biggest wuz bag going and if something upsets him, that will be day over. In the past on grass livery, a certain horse he had to walk past to come in, would set him off into panic mode but talking to him and saying ' you're all right, I've got you, good boy' etc he would do it and immediately calm down. Within literally steps past the gate of the paddock the horse was in, 4 strides previously he would be hyper ventilating.
I am seriously worried :(
 
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G-G said:
My Muppet is very intelligent, of which the huge disadvantage is he gets bored and shows it. Stops dead on the 10th time of doing a figure of 8. You can see him thinking ' I've done that to death already, can I do something else - why can't I go over there- what's going on over there- who's that - what's he doing - what he's got - got any sweets - where's my Nanny - Nanny tell them I'm boorreeddddddddd.......He's a nightmare. If he keeps going his 'head shaking' is the other sign, he's saying 'no no no no no booreeddddddd....
When he was broken in, the guy doing it who knows his stuff ,said you could hear him 'thinking' 'why, why why , what what what why....... etc. When he stops and just gets in with it , he's actually moves really well and goes really well ( obviously as much as you can tell when a 4 year old muppet ) but I fear first time at the races, he will be overwhelmed with all the new noises and sights and the actual 'race' will be a disaster. If times were normal , I would have liked him to for a racecourse gallop/ day out to try and 'walk' him through the experience.
I have also, in words of one syllable, said that I do not want him to go on bad ground as he will remember it and I don't want him soured by it. I would also like to walk with him as he is the biggest wuz bag going and if something upsets him, that will be day over. In the past on grass livery, a certain horse he had to walk past to come in, would set him off into panic mode but talking to him and saying ' you're all right, I've got you, good boy' etc he would do it and immediately calm down. Within literally steps past the gate of the paddock the horse was in, 4 strides previously he would be hyper ventilating.
I am seriously worried :(
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Yep, G-G, that's what I mean when I say I would much rather back a thicko.

My wee dog who passed on a few years ago was incredibly clever. He would learn anything within two or three lessons before deciding 'what next?'

Once he mastered fetching he would do it once for the sake of a treat then pretty much tell me to sod off and come up with something more worthy of him. He was my first ever dog and I was working full-time so didn't know what I was doing wrong. By the time he was ten he had me well and truly trained!
 
Anyway...

On to Friday at Cheltenham.

I see on the other thread Maruco is a bit underwhelmed at the Peterborough. It's not a race I'm in the habit of doing so don't really know its history as such but my figures are pointing to a very sound bet.

Top rated on ORs is Dolos yet he gets 6lbs from officially inferior horses. He's also joint-top on RPRs with, of all creatures, Kalashnikov, 8lbs clear of the next.

Normally you would expect such a horse to be around the 2/1 mark, maybe even less.

I took 6/1 this evening. I really can't see the price lasting and expect it to halve once the pros step in.

On the same card, Court Maid is 4lbs well in under her penalty and being backed. I've taken 3/1. She could go off at 2/1 or shorter.
 
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If I knew it was 100% going to win I’d put it in the other thread. It’s just an educated guess though.

But can’t see anything other than a Court Maid win in the 2.25 at Cheltenham tomorrow.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Anyway...

On to Friday at Cheltenham.

I see on the other thread Maruco is a bit underwhelmed at the Peterborough. It's not a race I'm in the habit of doing so don't really know its history as such but my figures are pointing to a very sound bet.

Top rated on ORs is Dolos yet he gets 6lbs from officially inferior horses. He's also joint-top on RPRs with, of all creatures, Kalashnikov, 8lbs clear of the next.

Normally you would expect such a horse to be around the 2/1 mark, maybe even less.

I took 6/1 this evening. I really can't see the price lasting and expect it to halve once the pros step in.

On the same card, Court Maid is 4lbs well in under her penalty and being backed. I've taken 3/1. She could go off at 2/1 or shorter.
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I think you will find Dolos acquires his rating from 2-mile chases...Doesn't stay this far over the larger obstacles, fell short every time, against lesser animals. The ground will turn heavy overnight and Kalashnikov will be the one nearer 2/1 when the pro's step in!

Court maid into 6/4... nice spot
 
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I've asked Diamond Geezer about the ground. He didn't see it detiorating to anything like heavy.
 
Slim said:
I've asked Diamond Geezer about the ground. He didn't see it deteriorating to anything like heavy.
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It ain't gonna be g/s though Slim!
Get on your knees and look me right in the eye. Let my gaze cut you down to size. Bout time that you realize. Rains coming down, I say the rain is coming down. The Rains coming down. I said the rain is coming down.
 
Maxbet said:
I think you will find Dolos acquires his rating from 2-mile chases...Doesn't stay this far over the larger obstacles, fell short every time, against lesser animals. The ground will turn heavy overnight and Kalashnikov will be the one nearer 2/1 when the pro's step in!

Court maid into 6/4... nice spot
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Yes, I was aware that Dolos's biggest figures were at 2m but he's got the winning of this on raw ability and I'm curious that they're giving him another shot at this trip. I think they fancy he'll stay following his wind surgery. He's certainly stoutly enough bred.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I was aware that Dolos's biggest figures were at 2m but he's got the winning of this on raw ability and I'm curious that they're giving him another shot at this trip. I think they fancy he'll stay following his wind surgery. He's certainly stoutly enough bred.
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keep your powder dry, you'll get 10's Saturday...

Kalashnikov wins easily on his nose defeat by Old Grangewood giving away 20Lb!
 
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One decent wager for me tomorrow is Happygolucky in the 3m nov chase. Jumps well, the possible softer ground wont cause any problems and reckon David Bass will gun him out from the front and he’s not for catching…
 
Ran pretty well lto; considering it was hurdles,3m and his first outing since February. He's only 7yo and 9/2 looks decent.
 
Maxbet said:
It ain't gonna be g/s though Slim!
Get on your knees and look me right in the eye. Let my gaze cut you down to size. Bout time that you realize. Rains coming down, I say the rain is coming down. The Rains coming down. I said the rain is coming down.
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The ground is good to soft, soft in places, even after the overnight rain. With minimal rain between now and after racing can't see how its going to be heavy?
I live locally too.
 
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Chel 12.05 Hold The Note 7/2 - Top rated on ORs, a pound higher than the fav and gets 5lbs. 11lbs clear on RPRs, 17lbs ahead of the favourite.

Either the ratings are wrong or the market is...

... or HTN isn't off.
 
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Kalashnikov being backed as if defeats out of the question. Not sure why it’s attracting so much money. I wouldn’t be laying him, but happy to take him on.

Not doing a write up. But I’m taking the Hendo duo on an all, I’ve landed on Glen Forsa. I think he’s a better horse than the price suggests. Won’t be any silly bets though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Chel 12.05 Hold The Note 7/2 - Top rated on ORs, a pound higher than the fav and gets 5lbs. 11lbs clear on RPRs, 17lbs ahead of the favourite.

Either the ratings are wrong or the market is...

... or HTN isn't off.
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Just caught up with the replay.

Looked a total non-stayer.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I was aware that Dolos's biggest figures were at 2m but he's got the winning of this on raw ability and I'm curious that they're giving him another shot at this trip. I think they fancy he'll stay following his wind surgery. He's certainly stoutly enough bred.
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Travelled like the winner the whole way but didn't get up the hill after all. It was worth a shot but not sure where he can go now.

Good to see Kalashnikov more like his old self but Mister Fisher was ultimately just too good.
 
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