What are you backing Today?

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MLMRob said:
HALKIRK 4.15 CATTERICK
Halkirk represents a stable who are 10-32 in bumpers at Catterick, 5-9 on their racecourse debut. That improves to 8-17 when they are in the first two of the betting and 3-3 when making their racecourse debut. Alan Swinbank has only ever had three runners in this race and two won on their racecourse debut. The other finished second on their third public appearance. Halkirk is by Nayef who is 5-14 with his progeny in bumpers on their debut in the UK. Alan Swinbank has trained two of those; Royal Riviera won first time out and Blue Blooded who was third to Bygones Of Brid. Halkirk holds three entries this week so it is interesting he comes here where his trainer has an excellent record. Conor Shoemark travels north for just the one ride, his first for Alan Swinbank.
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Very interesting stats around Swinbank here Rob, don't bet much NH these days but i'll put it in an EW double with Cara Court who i remember absolutely hacking up at Sedgefield last March and was suprised it had the speed to win over 2m recently.
 
Cheers guys! MLMRob's Halkirk does look a decent bet, so did it in a single plus R/F with Take The Cash who should run well too............
 
TAMAATHUL is a good thing tomorrow at Meydan (4:50). A consistent type, he gave weight and a beating to Russian Soul a few runs ago who is looking a smart horse in his own right. There's bound to be another big pot for Tamaathul...tomorrow looks like the day to back him.
 
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MIDNIGHT CHARMER 3.30 FAKENHAM

Midnight Charmer probably run his best race in defeat last time when beaten 3.5ls into third by Free World in a 0-105. Free World has since placed, btn 2.5ls, off 5lbs higher in a 0-120 behind Chicklemix who was winning his second race in a row and the fifth home has won a 0-95 by 10ls. Midnight Charmer is 12lbs higher than when he won over course and distance in October but this is a bad race and his main rivals have question marks about them.

Cruising Bye has improved in his second stint at Peter Bowen and the hood looks to have brought about that improvement. He has won two of his four races in the headgear and doesn’t have many miles on the clock, this is only his third chase start. He beat Saroque last time who has subsequently won. However, he has to carry 11-9 today compared to 10-6 and 10-8 in his previous victories. He struggled in a handicap hurdle at Exeter with 11-10 two runs back. He got outpaced over this distance last time but rallied to win his race but that was more down to the horses in front stopping. Peter Bowen is 3-20 in handicap chases here, last two have won.

Full Ov Beans won 57ls here last time but that doesn’t tell the full story. Favourite Upton Mead refused at the first and King Ozzy fell at the second leaving three runners. Zhukov wasn’t on a going day and Minella Ranger finished second by default when Zhukov decided to walk home. Fullovbeans has picked up a 7lbs penalty for what was a walkover. He is 0-10 off marks above 90 though he is 2-3 at Fakenham.

Bill The Lad beat Carli King at Towcester in December and that horse franked the form by winning the worst ever 0-100 at Leicester. Bill The Lad then followed up with a third to Le Grand Chene at Towcester on Boxing Day. Paul Cowley has just had two winners from 130 runners under rules.

Goring Two hasn’t won for two years and is still 5lbs higher than that mark.

Got Attitude has his third race for Tony Carroll but he hasn’t won for over three years and he is 0-6, never placed in single figure fields.

Phoenix Des Mottes wins in his turn, usually every two years.

Conclusion: The morning prices suggest that just four hold any sort of chance here. Fullovbeans can be discounted as he doesn’t win off this sort of mark. With Got Attitude, Phoenix Des Mottes, Goring Two and Bill The Lad all liking to race prominently, they should set this up for Cruising Bye and Midnight Charmer. I’m not convinced with Cruising Bye’s win last time and with an extra 15lbs in the saddle, admittedly this is much weaker, he may well not get home. Midnight Charmer is proven in the conditions, will have this run to suit and looks the one to beat.
 
13:00 Fakenham - Ballythomas

(Not too much to go by on form for this race, but has a bit of a chance if improving on last run. Has bags of stamina on both sides of pedigree, so no problem with ground; whether he has sufficient speed to win this is another matter. Took 9/2 as do not have an account with the two places offering 6/1).
 
Oh well, bad mistake 2nd circuit wasn't a help, but would not have bothered the first three anyway! Winner won easily and went well all the way.
 
4:20 Doncaster - Dakar Run

(Tough race, but will have a few shekels on this one. Certainly nicely bred for the job).
 
Quite suprised that Mike Murphy bought back Bennandoner at 10 yo after losing him a year before, must have a soft spot for him, and although 6 years since he came 2nd in Dont Panics Lincoln could well see these off.
 
Have to have a little bet on Layline here, Flash Crash is up 6lbs for beating 3 others in a slow time here and Johnstons Hunting Ground running over the distance for the 1st time make Layline quite appealing at about 7/1.
 
NiceOneFrankie can win the Sky Bet Chase for Venetia Williams. He beat Double Ross 13 lengths at start of the season, form doesn't come much stronger than that, this isn't the hardest three miles to get. A nice break and should go quite well at around 16's.
 
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He has no obvious form claims, and I'm not convinced he's worth a handicap mark of 137, but Charles Byrnes rarely puts them on the boat for the sea-air, and with a claimer up, Shanpallas rates an interesting outsider in a wide-open handicap chase at Chelts today.
 
Big day for Mr Williams with most of his best horses running at Cheltenham and I've done Le Rocher in the 12.40 - the rain overnight will suit and 3s is too big and The Italian Yob in the novices handicap. Has good form with Valdez and is a very good jumper for a novice. Will also have a look at how the market shapes for the Cleeve and might chance Reve de Sivola.
 
Deeply impressive considering he missed a few out. Short quotes for the Triumph are a bit excessive as he looks all over a soft ground horse.
 
Just a small punt for me today in the 15:15 Doncaster - The Druids Nephew at 10/1 (currently available in three places).
 
Dismal effort yesterday, but today have had a bit on Apterix (at 11/2) in the bumper at Sedgefield (16:20). Hopeful that this French-bred will run well here.
 
Ryan Style-4.30 Wolver. 6/1

Ryan Style didn't run until he was 4 years old but quickly won 3 races over 5fs but showed he stayed further when wining over 6fs at Haydock the following season off 76. Has been on a downward spiral since and has lost his speed. I notice that Lisa Williamson has just taken over the ownership of this horse in time for him to run from his lowest ever mark! Thought he ran a decent race lto over Kemptons 7fs btn only 3 lengths by Minimee in a race that was run 1 1/2 seconds faster than Medams race. Back at Wolver where Ryan Style has a record of 421238(btn 3 1/2lengths)off 70 in a race which may not have much pace may just have fallen to a low enough mark to get his head back in front.

Shaun Harris has had 4 winners on the trot since i put up Reality Show last Sunday and i'm loath to desert Medam who won on the same card but that did look a poor race beforehand and an 8lb rise may just catch him out.
 
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