Where's the Festival Value?

Cirrus was a gelding, unlike the others, and that makes a difference because they are easier to train and don't have a stud career to consider.

As for the others, how do you rate a horse like Sea The Stars who won the best of the best races, from 8f to 12f, without ever being asked to more than needed to win? Why bother, why not just celebrate an amazing achievement?
 
My greatest memory of Hurricane Fly is not his first or even his second Champion Hurdle win, but his 5th ICH win, which came not only when he'd been written-off as too old, but was something I was able to enjoy in the company of some of the finest men TH have ever assembled on a racecourse.

Memories are made of this.

PS. Talk of wanker Flat horses who were too gay to face down a hurdle, has no place on this thread. Behave yourselves.
 
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Surely we can all agree that there's no value in HF this year.

Back on topic, advance Festival value vanished some time ago. There might be an angle on NRNB but otherwise it will be in the special offers on the day.
 
archie said:
Surely we can all agree that there's no value in HF this year.

Back on topic, advance Festival value vanished some time ago. There might be an angle on NRNB but otherwise it will be in the special offers on the day.
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Very true. I think the ones to focus on are those that will run before the festival, whose participation is only likely/probable if they run well in their prep, hence shortening in price.

Sceau royale is one I had in mind, if he runs another stinker then he's unlikely to run in the champion, if he returns to something like his early season firm he won't be 33s or 40s.

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Jezki falls into that category. Jessie has said she's aiming to give him a strenuous campaign ahead of March, starting him over 2 before stepping him up to 3 with the aim being the Stayers hurdle, despite JP also having the favorite.

You'd have to think that if he doesn't show the same sparkle since his injury or doesn't appreciate the step up in trip thereafter - unlikely considering his last two runs back in 2015 - then he'd either miss Cheltenham completely or stick to 2 miles.

So the 12/1 NRNB with Bet365 for the Stayers is decent value for a horse with his ability.
 
Now that the NRNB concession has kicked in with one or two firms, I've taken Sceau Royal each-way at the 33/1 to add to the win bet I made back in the autumn.

If it ends up running it's because it's impressed either at home or on the track and almost certainly won't be 33/1. If it doesn't I'll only have lost the original bet. I can live with that.
 
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archie said:
Surely we can all agree that there's no value in HF this year.

Back on topic, advance Festival value vanished some time ago. There might be an angle on NRNB but otherwise it will be in the special offers on the day.
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That's true. Though if I had an inkling Airlie Beach was running in the Supreme she'd be outstanding value with her claim. :whistle:
 
:ninja:

I'm sure she'll get an entry, and if it was run tomorrow she'd be Timeform top-rated, but I think that Steve Massey's statement is the current position.
 
wilsonl said:
Jezki falls into that category. Jessie has said she's aiming to give him a strenuous campaign ahead of March, starting him over 2 before stepping him up to 3 with the aim being the Stayers hurdle, despite JP also having the favorite.

You'd have to think that if he doesn't show the same sparkle since his injury or doesn't appreciate the step up in trip thereafter - unlikely considering his last two runs back in 2015 - then he'd either miss Cheltenham completely or stick to 2 miles.

So the 12/1 NRNB with Bet365 for the Stayers is decent value for a horse with his ability.
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Entered in 2m hurdle at Navan on Saturday - confined to horses who haven't won a hurdle race, other than a wfa race for 13000 Euros or less, since 3/5/2015. A conditions race and the horse is thrown in (even at 2 miles) - perfect comeback race.
 
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Diego Du Charmil trotted up at Musselburgh last Saturday, winning with his ears pricked, and they were strung out like washing behind him. He has gone up from 140 to 149 as a result and I'd actually have expected a bit more. Post-race comments indicate he'll go for the County now and he looks a decent each-way bet at 20/1 or at 16/1 NRNB for that. We know he's effective at Cheltenham and he should get his ground. The only slight question mark is whether he needs longer between his races but that's a chance I'll take.
 
I'll put up Modus at 14/1 with the sponsors for the Coral Cup after the way Kalondra (5th in the Lanzarote) dotted up today and Lord of the Island (3rd) on Saturday


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Road to riches. 50/1 NRNB gokd cup.

He won't run unless he returns to top form on Sunday, in which case he's no 50/1 chance in an open year. Similar comments could apply to empire of dirt, more likely to run in the Ryanair unless he runs very well on Sunday.

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I will be sore disappointed if the progressive Empire of Dirt doesn't win the Irish Gold Cup, and book his place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I've backed at 9/2 in the former, and 33/1 the latter.
 
The IGC market is f*cked. How on earth is that moody slow boat Don Poli fav ?. He'll finish behind Empire of Dirt and Carlingford Lough. Sizing John is the fly in the ointment.

Despite being an 11 year old CL is a big price at 6/1 for a horse who's top rated, has won this the last two years and put a decent field away in the Punchestown Gold Cup on his last run over fences. Geraghty prefers him to the somehow shorter priced Minella Rocco.
 
I did Carlingford Lough last week in a patent, he's the last leg of the bet, I've had one winner and a loser so far.
So I hope you might be right, Lee. I'll make a decent profit on the bet I placed if he wins.

If he can end a few gold cup hopes by winning it'll do my e/w on Champagne West no harm either!
 
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Hope he comes in for you then mate. Despite my thinking he's value it'll probably be a watching brief for me on Sunday as I would expect a few of these to be slightly less than 100% regardless of it being a G1 and carrying 90k in prize money.

That could be another thing in Carlingford Lough's favour that he doesn't have any fancy entries now until April so we know Sunday is his Gold Cup.

Sorry - hijacking the festival thread though with a horse not even entered there.
 
Don't know how DP is fav, but David Mullins to outsmart tactic-wise anyone riding atm and even if DP's a slow boat thats basically what you need at Leop plus he's still a classy animal - 3rd in last yr GC

They're trying cheekpieces first time with RTR and if he's not a complete goner maybe that'll do the thing to get him into the frame, 16/1 e/w the pick for me in a 8 runner field. Not sure about the Chelt GC for him, even if he wins here, he'll need to get back to his absolute best to compete against the top in the market there, especially against Djak.
 
I am not convinced UDS wants 2m5f round Cheltenham. He did win at Auteuil but that doesn't mean he'll get the trip at the Festival

WPM never asked him to go beyond 2 miles until Sprinter kicked him into touch and Douvan came along.

I think he's an out and out 2 miler and could see Uxizandre 7/1 outstaying him in the Ryanair
 
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