York Ebor Meeting
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Desert Orchid
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In the Nunthorpe I've taken Emaraaty Ana at 16/1, 4 places, BOG. That price strikes me as huge. He hit form this time last year, running second in this and going on to win the Haydock Sprint Cup, and this is as poor a Nunthorpe as I can recall. I would be fearful of a back-to-form Winter Power but she has been disappointing this season.
Frankel
Senior Jockey
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Mastercraftsman made him work!
Harry Redknapps horse Moktassab runs on Friday, as does another one I have been following called System. I think both need considering for their respective races.
A quiet day tomorrow only fancy Northern Express who was fourth last time to a horse who I reckon can win the Ayr Gold Cup in Fresh.
Hopefully Northern Express can frank that form tomorrow.
A quiet day tomorrow only fancy Northern Express who was fourth last time to a horse who I reckon can win the Ayr Gold Cup in Fresh.
Hopefully Northern Express can frank that form tomorrow.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Wed:
Not overly strong on anything today. Small interest in Shining Blue who's Golden Mile run can be forgiven and he looked most progressive at Newcastle (am I grasping in thinking that horses who act on the AW are going to be fine with the York surface?). Probably. I want to be against the very top of the market though. I looked up the subsequent in season record of Golden Mile frame hitters post Goodwood and it ain't great and the other Godolphin's form was hardly franked by Noble Dynasty in the same race.
I remember being very keen on Stay Alert in the Lancs Oaks and she was very disappointing (didn't stay, very keen) but her earlier win over Golden Lyra at Newbury strikes me as easily the best form any of the participants can claim in the Galtres so I've had a bit on the Haggas filly. The Yorkshire Oaks looks like the most competitive Group 1 of the week but I can't see an angle. Also, three frigging 2yo races is too many.
Not overly strong on anything today. Small interest in Shining Blue who's Golden Mile run can be forgiven and he looked most progressive at Newcastle (am I grasping in thinking that horses who act on the AW are going to be fine with the York surface?). Probably. I want to be against the very top of the market though. I looked up the subsequent in season record of Golden Mile frame hitters post Goodwood and it ain't great and the other Godolphin's form was hardly franked by Noble Dynasty in the same race.
I remember being very keen on Stay Alert in the Lancs Oaks and she was very disappointing (didn't stay, very keen) but her earlier win over Golden Lyra at Newbury strikes me as easily the best form any of the participants can claim in the Galtres so I've had a bit on the Haggas filly. The Yorkshire Oaks looks like the most competitive Group 1 of the week but I can't see an angle. Also, three frigging 2yo races is too many.
My instinct is that Frankel had slightly the better form over a mile but actually on todays run Baaeed could prove to be better over 1M2F, (Frankel only ran twice at that distance), but Baaeed will only get one more chance to show this at Newmarket on Champions Day.
I could be wrong. Who knows.
All I really know is if they met at a mile I would want to back Frankel but at a mile and two furlongs I might want to back Baaeed.
Baaeed was so good today you almost could be forgiven for thinking he has been running at not his optimum distance for most of his career and still winning everytime.
I am not sure we said that about Frankel.
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Tanlic
Banned member
Poor Nunthorpe mygiddy Aunt.....Royal Aclaim alone makes it a high class renewal and she is to my mind the best bet of the week.
Emaraaty Ana finsihed 2nd in a really disappinting Nunthorpe which fell apart when Golden Pal flopped.
she won't be sighted against this filly who is in a different league.
All Andrea Atzeni needs to do is keep it simple and this superstar of a filly will do the rest.
Roya Aclaim 5star***** bet 13/8
I'd love to see Luke Morris win the Oaks today but he might find Magical Lagoon a hard nut to crack
Magical Lagoon looks a very safe E/W bet at 5/1 3 places with Coral
Emaraaty Ana finsihed 2nd in a really disappinting Nunthorpe which fell apart when Golden Pal flopped.
she won't be sighted against this filly who is in a different league.
All Andrea Atzeni needs to do is keep it simple and this superstar of a filly will do the rest.
Roya Aclaim 5star***** bet 13/8
I'd love to see Luke Morris win the Oaks today but he might find Magical Lagoon a hard nut to crack
Magical Lagoon looks a very safe E/W bet at 5/1 3 places with Coral
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Fcking hell, a Tanlic shortie I can get behind. That's a first.
Tanlic
Banned member
C'mon man you can not be serious??????? Frankel would have picked him up and carried him
Baaeed put up a 128-130 perfomance today no matter what the h'capper might say. Mishriff ran way below his best and made it very easy for Baaeed..
Frankel was a 140 horse which is a world apart.
Frankel met some real good types wheras Baaeed has been beating trees in comparison
You need to get it wrong sometimes
Went to Dunstall park today and watched it on the big screen, Baeed would beat Frankel over 1m 2f but wouldn't have seen which way he went over 1m
Shame he won't run in the Arc, he's the biggest turf horse in the world and the Arc is arguably the biggest turf race in the world and he should be running in it
Champion stakes isn't even in the top 10
edgt
Senior Jockey
Have to say I agree Tanlic but like his sire Baaeed will never run to his true rating , doing enough without emptying himself.
Believe Excelebration received an exaggerated rating to justify Frankel's top ratings (not to take anything from either horse.)
Joe Mercer maintained Frankel beat trees compared to Bregadier Gerard so each to their own.
I truly believe there would be room for Mishriff, Excelebration and a lot of other "trees" in most racing stables.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Different circumstances but Mishriff ran below form today because of Baaeed. His jockey wanted to question the horse's stamina and so went probably a tad quicker than ideal in order to stretch him - this led to horses more optimally ridden (Sir Busker and Dubai Honour) being closer than they ordinarily would be. The same result in a different way happened in Frankel's best performance, when Excelebration paid the price for trying to keep tabs on the great horse and ended up less than a couple of lengths in front of Side Glance.
Frankel
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I need a drink!
Frankel
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You need to get it wrong sometimes
Went to Dunstall park today and watched it on the big screen, Baeed would beat Frankel over 1m 2f but wouldn't have seen which way he went over 1m
Shame he won't run in the Arc, he's the biggest turf horse in the world and the Arc is arguably the biggest turf race in the world and he should be running in it
Champion stakes isn't even in the top 10
Dear God! I need another drink.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Underrating Baaeed because Sir Busker was maybe a bit too close is a mistake. He broke the best horse that's what matters.
Similar thing happened in Faugheen's Champion Hurdle. He broke Jezki and Hurricane Fly and the more optimally ridden Arctic Fire strolled in for second. Underrating Faugheen because of the second's proximity was a mistake though, not that I recall a lot of people falling into that trap.
Similar thing happened in Faugheen's Champion Hurdle. He broke Jezki and Hurricane Fly and the more optimally ridden Arctic Fire strolled in for second. Underrating Faugheen because of the second's proximity was a mistake though, not that I recall a lot of people falling into that trap.
Frankel
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How far does Excelebration win the Queen Anne without Frankel?
He was allowed to run the QE2 'properly' without sacrificing himself.
Love the Brig but Mercer is an underling.
Yes this is what I was saying.
Guys, Frankel beat Farrh and St Nicholas Abbey in his Juddmonte.
He then beat Cirrus Des Aigles and Nathaniel in his final run over 1M2F at Newmarket.
I put it to you that Mishriff is as good or even better than all those above.
On what we have seen, I think Frankel was the better miler while Baaeed could be the better 10F horse.
What could baaeed face at Newmarket?
What will he have to beat to be an equal to Frankel over 10F?
The fact is Frankel never met a Baaeed and vice versa.
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Frankel
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I honestly don't know where to start Marb!
Agree with all of this
The Derby, King George, Arc are the 3 sexiest and biggest races in Europe, it's a tragedy that Frankel or Baeed never or will have never run in any of them
Both were by Galileo and Sea the Stars respectively so they probably would have stayed
Desert Orchid
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Yes, but it's a natural tendency of punters to try and figure out how the best in one generation compares to the best in other generations.
Baaeed is the best we have at the moment and to be celebrated as such but as I've said before the ITV people don't half go OTT with the fawning.
Even after Frankel won the Guineas I was still sceptical about how good he was. I was looking for scenarios that might have produced a freak result but I soon accepted that he was indeed very good. I no longer have my notes from back then but I vaguely recall thinking he was probably a mid-130s horse.
It was towards the end of his career that I recall going back over his form and trying to be more objective about it all when it finally dawned on me that we'd been dealing with a fvcking monster all along.
I'm too young to have been rating Sea Bird but I've seen the video footage of his big wins and there's no doubt his 145 rating was deserved.
I was just starting to get the hang of the rudiments of rating performances when the Brigadier and Mill Reef were four-year-olds and both were beating G1 horses by wide margins in very fast times. I recall the Brigadier sometimes having two pacemakers in a race. I can't recall if it was during work or in a race that they ran a sprinter and a miler, both 100+ horses, the former to set a fast pace through the first half of the race and the latter to take over for the next half-mile. The Brigadier usually then took over himself and ran away from them. It's the kind of thing we now see in Diamond League athletics when they're trying to set world records.
I always believed the Brigadier would beat Mill Reef if they'd met at 10f but that Mill Reef would have won at 12f. I think they were rated 144 and 143 eventually.
Frankel, I came to accept, was better than both.
Therefore, I reckon to conceive of Baaeed ever beating Frankel at either 8f or 10f is subjective wishful thinking.
I'm not sure Baaeed would get Frankel off the bit. Today
Sir Busker was advantaged because he lagged behind the strong pace (as did Dubai Honour) and they picked up the pieces when others had given their all, imo.
It was made clear,on ITV, that Mishriff had been taught to 'trap' in his absence, and the benefits were clear from the very start, so that horse, almost certainly, showed improved form as a consequence.
Bin all ratings, until Mishriff endorses that progression, should be the way forward - not that it matters to those who don't need maths to judge horses.:lol:
Tanlic
Banned member
The difference between my so called shorties and the 15 @ 5/2 or less that were stuffed yesterday is that mines win.
Anyone can pick a short priced fav but knowing which ones to back is a completely different ball game.