Arc 2010

Galileo said:
Soumillion rides Cape Blanco.
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Does he definitely run then? No better jockey for the job round there. Absolutely delighted as a CB backer.

I'm worried about the rain but I've got a strong position on the race anyway with only Sarafina, Fame, Workforce and Youmzain as losers now of the principals and Sarafina worries me less than the two Japanese horses to be honest!
 
Grey said:
I don't know where you get that notion from. The going is soft in Paris a lot more often than in the south of England.
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It's a well known fact that the French ground descriptions are frankly, bullshit. It's always quicker than the advertised going. It's also an urban myth that the Arc is always ran on soft ground, as Tom Segal eludes to on the RPTV. Below are the last few Arcs, their advertised ground and the ground description that the RP believed was correct, based on the times.

2004 - Official: Good RP: Firm
2005 - Official: Good to Soft RP: Good
2006 - Official: Good RP: Firm (I walked the track this year, it was like a road!)
2007 - Official: Good to Soft RP: Good
2008 - Official: Good to Soft RP: Good to Firm
2009 - Official: Good RP: Good to Firm
 
I didn't say the Arc is always run on soft ground, I said that in Paris soft means soft, and they see more of it than in the south of England. Your list of RP going descriptions doesn't contradict this.

The first conclusion I would take from the RP analysis is that the going tends to quicken up if the weather stays dry during the afternoon; the Arc is run at the end of the day and the weather on the day is often decent. The other conclusion is that Longchamp likes to avoid the word 'firm' in its going descriptions.
 
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If you took a sample of say 100 going descriptions from Paris racecourses where the ground was advertised as "Soft" and then looked at the times, I would be strong odds on that a majority of those 100 weren't run on genuinely soft ground.

The RP site's time based ground pop up with the comparison of times is very useful, although it can be misleading where their standards are outdated.

I think Gareth is more of an expert on French ground and times than myself?
 
An ease in the ground is a major plus for Fame And Glory...antepost bet has definitely swung right over the last couple of days.
 
I can't see them running Cape Blanco, and if they do, he'll be the best place lay on the day. The going is nearly very soft, and whatever the discrepancy between going descriptions, that is going to be very unsuitable for him.

Fame and Glory's to win in these conditions.
 
Rain

It really did pour down here over the weekend, but this week is supposed to be fairly dry, except Saturday and Sunday which could really change things, as a downpour on Sunday with how draining works (or doesn't work) here can easily change it from Soft/Good to soft in an hour. Except for Chantilly, on all the other main tracks in France, the water just doesn't go anywhere.

A quick rumour too, Lope de Vega looks like being supplemented
 
Latest acceptors:

Youmzain
Fame And Glory
Pouvoir Absolu
Marsh Side
Wiener Walzer
Cavalryman
Nakayama Festa
Dixie Music
Timos
Duncan
Liang Kay
Tullamore
Tinaar
LaBoum
Plumania
Workforce
Behkabad
Cape Blanco
Joshua Tree
Planteur
Midas Touch
Flying Cross
Bright Horizon
Victoire Pisa
Sarafina
Dariole
 
Hamm said:
I can't see them running Cape Blanco, and if they do, he'll be the best place lay on the day. The going is nearly very soft, and whatever the discrepancy between going descriptions, that is going to be very unsuitable for him.
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He dotted up as a two year old in soft ground twice. At the prices, he's still the one I'd want to be one if I hadn't already played and I can't believe they wouldn't have booked Soumi already if they didn't intend to run.

Lope De Vega is being supplemented.
 
I wouldn't say dotted up - those 2 performances would have him mid 100s at best and he was probably better than that as a 2 year old so I would say the ground probably held him back.

I would lay it off if I were you (if you have 20s) - don't think the Soumi booking means a thing (who would you book - Soumi or Heffernan!?!) now he's not with the Aga Khan, the race will be run to suit Fame, the ground not in his favour and he has had a very, very hard summer. I can't think of a more unlikely winner of an Arc myself.
 
He's the best three year old in the race by an absolute mile. The two French horses probably still have improvement in them but I wouldn't see them beating the field he demolished at Leopardstown and it had cut in it then. Like I say, his tough campaign worries me more than anything else.

Workforce worries me more than any other horse in the race, if he was a touch bigger, I'd be saving on him. I think Fame is an excellent horse but I don't think he's top top class and he's no better than Workforce on his Derby run, with his prep, I'm keen to oppose him.
 
I think taking his Leopardstown run at face value would be a mistake - he is probably a 123 ish horse which would put him just behind the french two for me. Fame probably around 129 and Workforce could be anything.
 
J McGraths column in the Telegraph today states that he has heard Workforce is going very well but it is up to Abdulla whether the horse runs due to commercial reasons.

I didn't realise that Neil Drysdale was sending Marsh Side over from California - presume he runs as he's been left in.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Does he definitely run then?
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It looks like it but who knows. A typical bit of double speak in the RP today (not got it to hand now) to the effect that they are looking to run Fame And Glory and Cape Blanco at the moment unless things change. Midas Touch also mentioned as possibly taking part as well as a pacemaker for Fame (Dixie Music).

I'd be worried that CB would run if it were soft. Soumillion would presumably switch to Midas Touch in that circumstance.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
I think Fame is an excellent horse but I don't think he's top top class
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I’ve deep admiration for the ability of this horse, not as brilliant as his own sire no doubt but I think the race is playing into his hooves now and I expect him to hit something like 132-134 in the race (which will win it). I wouldn’t really be on anything else at the moment. Assuming it’s on the soft side Planteur may give him the most to do. Workforce (a brilliant Derby winner) is interesting, but I just don't know about him.
 
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Paris was grey and gloomy on Tuesday and very little sun was forecast up to and through the weekend. There could be a rainy period on Wednesday night going through to Thursday morning and the weather may deteriorate even further on Friday.
Clerk of the course Christian Delporte said on Tuesday: "The going remains soft to very soft. I have looked at various forecasts and they aren't all the same but further rain is expected, although we don't know quite how much."
 
I see O'Brien is talking about pulling out both Fame and Cape Blanco if there is any more rain and reviewing which of his five others he'll run.

Since there is rain due in Paris on Saturday and Sunday, this doesn't sound the best of news... Personally I wouldn't be too worried about Fame as he has won on Heavy.
 
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