prince regent
Conditional
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- May 2, 2003
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- 588
thats only if the race is in the tierce if they dont include it and they dont have to then its 27 runners
Arc 2010
- Thread starter Gamla Stan
- Start date
thats only if the race is in the tierce if they dont include it and they dont have to then its 27 runners
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
La Boum is a huge price considering how well she ran in the race last year - at 200/1 with her favoured conditions she should go well as I hope will Pouvoir Absolu who has plenty of form at 1m 6f+ though has been running over shorter this season.
There were three withdrawals from the Arc at the latest forfeit stage.
They were Gerard Butler's Tinaar, the Pascal Bary-trained Dariole and Marsh Side, trained in America by Neil Drysdale. The going at the Paris track was on Wednesday described as soft, with more forecast for the weekend.
Source: PA
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
Workforce runs.
:lol: One of my favourites... much unsung.
A big price with good reason it seems... According to Robert Collet she is more likely to take part in the Prix de Royallieu.
Still mixed messages from the master trainer of obfuscation:
Aidan O'Brien, meanwhile, reiterated his concerns about the likelihood of soft ground at Longchamp.
Fame And Glory and Cape Blanco are Ballydoyle's main hopes for the 2010 French showpiece.
"Very soft ground wouldn't be ideal for any of them," O'Brien told the Irish Times.
"The plan is still that Fame And Glory and Cape Blanco will run, but we're hoping they don't get too much rain on Saturday.
Asked if testing conditions might provoke a rethink on Arc running plans, O'Brien added: "We cross these bridges when we come to them.
"Ideally we wouldn't want bad ground."
Aidan O'Brien, meanwhile, reiterated his concerns about the likelihood of soft ground at Longchamp.
Fame And Glory and Cape Blanco are Ballydoyle's main hopes for the 2010 French showpiece.
"Very soft ground wouldn't be ideal for any of them," O'Brien told the Irish Times.
"The plan is still that Fame And Glory and Cape Blanco will run, but we're hoping they don't get too much rain on Saturday.
Asked if testing conditions might provoke a rethink on Arc running plans, O'Brien added: "We cross these bridges when we come to them.
"Ideally we wouldn't want bad ground."
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Sheikh
At the Start
Why do they bother, it wouldn't have killed him to say if the ground is bad we will reconsider.
...galling as well, as most believe the prevailing going will be a benefit to Fame in relation to the others. Indeed the rain is why people now want to back him, ironically AOB is also sugggesting it could be the reason he doesn't take part.
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A day is a long time in horse racing it seems.
Satisfied connections after a light piece of work this morning and set to take part.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Thanks Steve
Who will and won't go through the mud?
I think Cavalryman will go well in these conditions, and same for Youmzain.
Not questioning it, but what form does Fame have to say anything softer than good is not a hindrance?
I don't think the rain will be a plus for Behkabad, and I think Planteur may struggle at 1m4 distance-wise in very soft.
Cape Blanco an obvious negative.
Any stayers stick out a la Westerner?
I think Cavalryman will go well in these conditions, and same for Youmzain.
Not questioning it, but what form does Fame have to say anything softer than good is not a hindrance?
I don't think the rain will be a plus for Behkabad, and I think Planteur may struggle at 1m4 distance-wise in very soft.
Cape Blanco an obvious negative.
Any stayers stick out a la Westerner?
At the risk of stating the obvious Fame And Glory (by Montjeu out of a Shirley Heights mare with a negative centre of distribution).
EC1
On a break
maybe most people have read the form wrong - its like the 12f winner stuff..a horse wins at 12f..ooh it stays 12f then..without recourse to any other aspect of that 12f win..its same with ground..people look at a horse's form..oooh its won on soft..will relish it then
it isn't that straightforward is it?
maybe in cases like this..it might be worth studying F&G's form..try to suss how its not going to relish bad ground..then apply that thinking to future form reading..alternatively..people can just stick to the old tried and tested..its won on it so it must love it theory..and keep making poor decisions re what a horse favours or doesn't
there are some lazy punters out there mind you
Just think how much Sariska would have loved it !!! had she deigned to start .
maybe most people have read the form wrong - its like the 12f winner stuff..a horse wins at 12f..ooh it stays 12f then..without recourse to any other aspect of that 12f win..its same with ground..people look at a horse's form..oooh its won on soft..will relish it then
it isn't that straightforward is it?
maybe in cases like this..it might be worth studying F&G's form..try to suss how its not going to relish bad ground..then apply that thinking to future form reading..alternatively..people can just stick to the old tried and tested..its won on it so it must love it theory..and keep making poor decisions re what a horse favours or doesn't
there are some lazy punters out there mind you
In the general I’d agree with you. I love identifying the opposite to what people believe to be the case.
In the particular, however, I disagree. Fame has a pronounced raking round action very naturally suited to give. He is by Montjeu out of a Shirley Heights mare with a negative CD and will be staying on when others have cried enough. AOB knows this but what he knows and what he’s told to advertise aren’t necessarily the same thing.
:lol: ...we'll strike her out then.
...also true, but as in the Coronation Cup Fame would go as well as her and then outstay her.
EC1
On a break
There is very little evidence from the form that F&G wants heavy ground..in fact just reading the form in a very simplistic way..the last time he encountered heavy ground he lost at 30/100..suggesting a run well below his best. Yes it was fto..but he had no trouble winning fto as a 3yo.
in fact..for an Irish horse..he has run very few races on what would be the average going over there..softer than good...that in itself is unusual don't you think?...his last 4 wins on better side of Good..seems quite remarkable for a mud lover would have thought
if F&G was a mudlover..he has been remarkably unlucky not to encounter it too often.
its that old argument..well he won on heavy as a 2yo..yes he did..beating a 90 rated..then next time out beat a 111 rated half a length..races he would have won probably more easily on better ground.
there isn't any real evidence he wants it hock deep