Arc 2010

EC1 said:
There is very little evidence from the form that F&G wants heavy ground..in fact just reading the form in a very simplistic way..the last time he encountered heavy ground he lost at 30/100..suggesting a run well below his best. Yes it was fto..but he had no trouble winning fto as a 3yo.
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the horse that day because he was a non trier, was not fit and the jockey rode an insufficient race.

I think Fame And Glory goes well on heavy and will stay more than 12f, so that should be a huge positive
 
Fame And Glory is drawn in stall 1 - usually a bad draw but given that he will presumably be ridden aggressively enough that is not too bad. Cape Blanco 11, Behkabad 9, Planteur 7, Youmzain 12.
 
EC1 said:
There is very little evidence from the form that F&G wants heavy ground..in fact just reading the form in a very simplistic way..the last time he encountered heavy ground he lost at 30/100..suggesting a run well below his best. Yes it was fto..but he had no trouble winning fto as a 3yo.

in fact..for an Irish horse..he has run very few races on what would be the average going over there..softer than good...that in itself is unusual don't you think?...his last 4 wins on better side of Good..seems quite remarkable for a mud lover would have thought

if F&G was a mudlover..he has been remarkably unlucky not to encounter it too often.

its that old argument..well he won on heavy as a 2yo..yes he did..beating a 90 rated..then next time out beat a 111 rated half a length..races he would have won probably more easily on better ground.

there isn't any real evidence he wants it hock deep
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No horse wants Heavy going EC, but (as I've said) he'll cope with it at least as well as any of them. As he's the best horse in the race anyway this will inconveience him less than the others.
 
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Galileo said:
Fame And Glory is drawn in stall 1 - usually a bad draw but given that he will presumably be ridden aggressively enough that is not too bad. Cape Blanco 11, Behkabad 9, Planteur 7, Youmzain 12.
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He should be able to negotiate a reasonable position given that they won't be zooming out of the gate on this ground.
 
I've been in Paris all day today - Few specks of rain but nothing that would have any effect, it didn't even wet my hair!!! It's cloudy here but doesn't really look like raining. It isn't cold either and a fair wind was blowing this afternoon. If it doesn't rain heavily tomorrow I suspect the ground will be fine. I'll be at Longchamp tomorrow so i'll get on course and see what the ground is like...
 
Forecast a hot and sunny day with small chances of the odd shower on Sunday!

Drop us a PM if you fancy meeting for a beer Aragorn. I'm meeting Irish Stamp at the track.
 
Aragorn said:
I've been in Paris all day today - Few specks of rain but nothing that would have any effect, it didn't even wet my hair!!! It's cloudy here but doesn't really look like raining. It isn't cold either and a fair wind was blowing this afternoon. If it doesn't rain heavily tomorrow I suspect the ground will be fine. I'll be at Longchamp tomorrow so i'll get on course and see what the ground is like...
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It's tomorrow that the heavy rain is due though... stay dry!
 
sunybay said:
the horse that day because he was a non trier, was not fit and the jockey rode an insufficient race.

I think Fame And Glory goes well on heavy and will stay more than 12f, so that should be a huge positive
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i said..a simplistic reading of the form..are you sure he needed it though?..he didn't need his fto run as a 3yo..and if you believe he needed that run..then you must also be in doubt he will need the run on Sunday

seeing as how F&G has never run in this class on heavy going then you are guessing at best..there is no evidence he will appreciate it..plus his trainer supports that view..which..could be an excuse for him not to run..but if he does go well on heavy why on earth would AOB dream of pulling him out?..doesn't make sense.

lets pray the deluge doesn't come tomorrow..it will just ruin the race imo
 
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Hamm said:
EC, did you see his first race this season?
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yes i did

i'll repeat..a simplistic reading of the form..his last run on heavy resulted in him running way below best

if he needed that run..and i think he did..basically wasn't pushed too hard...then he will probably need the race on sunday to some degree..you don't win an arc whilst needing the race even to a small degree

show me some evidence that F&G will be quite happy in a top G1 race on heavy ground

coz..i looked..and i can't find it
 
EC, I'm the one who raised the question about the suitability of soft ground for Fame!

However, using his first race this year as an example for your argument would be wrong. Horse, jockey and trainer should have received lengthy bans - a very clear non-trier.
 
Hamm said:
EC, I'm the one who raised the question about the suitability of soft ground for Fame!

However, using his first race this year as an example for your argument would be wrong. Horse, jockey and trainer should have received lengthy bans - a very clear non-trier.
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If you read back..i wasn't using that race as an example..i was using it as a simplistic form read..a bit similar to the ..its won at 12..so does stay school of form reading.....ie over simplistic

but..the fact that they didn't have f&g fit enough to win in even that race against lessers..doesn't inspire confidence that he will be match fit after this break

an 80% f&g should have won that race but the fact he was given an easy..tells you he wasn't even 80%

how fit sunday?..plus the ground doubts.

like said..i want the ground to be ok..no excuses for pulling him out etc
 
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EC1 said:
but..the fact that they didn't have f&g fit enough to win in even that race against lessers..doesn't inspire confidence that he will be match fit after this break
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There's a big difference between not having a horse ready first time out with a view to the long season ahead and not having a prep for a big race. Compare the fitness level of AOB's recent Guineas horses to George Washington. I trust this trainer to be able to deliver Fame & Glory in top shape. My confidence in him has gone a little with the possibility of heavy ground however - but that's nowt to do with fitness concerns.
 
chroniclandlord said:
I'd agree Euro, if Fame gets beaten it won't be due to a lack of fitness.
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what if..he is using the ground as an excuse to pull him out though..because he isn't 100%

its one thing..not having a prep for the arc..another thing having that first run back after a break ..on heavy ground

i wonder if on his first run back this year..if the ground had been better..he may have been put into the race a little more positevly..its possible he was fit enough to win..on better ground.

its the issue of..a break..then racing on heavy on Sunday thats not ideal..the combination of those two factors..rather than just the ground
 
That's correct. If he'd been toasted in the King George and run in the Irish Champion I'd have zero confidence in the horse rather than a slight concern.
 
Aragorn said:
The forecast here is for showers but not heavy rain - It has just rained for a while after I typed that!!!! :confused::rolleyes: Typical!!!
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Been raining all night... It's going to be soft, soft et soft...... I would make a crap weather man...
 
Looks testing to me - first two group races been won by outsiders.

Anyone know if Pouvoir Absolu is likely to act as pacemaker for Planteur or are they going to run him on his merits?
 
Very tempted by the 100/1 for that one even if it is going to be a pacemaker; can't help but feel that, if ever there was going to be a shock result, this could be the year for it...
 
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