Brexit

[clivex]

Here's one for Icebreaker and Clivex.

We're just 8 years on from the collapse of Lehman brothers, the run on European and British banks etc...
Do you not think, (apart from the fact we are not in the Euro), the reason we've kept our Triple A credit rating, and investors have been optimistic about us, is the fact that compared to other European counterparts, we've been doing quite well.

Hence, now we are destined to be a separate entity, world markets will now start judging us on us alone, with a more forensic look at the nations coffers.

My supposition (I hope I'm wrong), is that the uncertainty of a new Prime Minster, a possible general election, a Scottish referendum, a very real and plausible downward curve of U.K growth, etc etc etc does now make us more susceptible to a financial downgrade in the overall world economy, if not recession? Is this true or entirely false?

I hope this makes some small sense, I await your answer too.

I believe we have had a triple a rating for some considerable time. Most Western European states do . I could xheck


Ratings agencies are a bit devalued anyway but there will be no more or less scrutiny than before. They judge every exonomy in isolation. Being part of Europe is neither here nor there . Didn't help greeces rating much

the rest is possible though but it will be based on hard numbers not elections.

 

[icebreaker]

Hi Marble,
Moody's had already lowered Britain's AAA rating quite some time ago.
I have no doubt that Standard And Poor will now follow suit in view of Brexit.

How severely this will impact rates of interest charged on British borrowing I'm afraid I can't offer an answer.

 

[clivex]

You take a snapshot of the markets.....measured across a timespan of One Business Day........and suggest that it is conclusive of the benign impact of Brexit.

How many of your clients are still going-concerns?

im getting bored with this. I didn't deny the £ fall .

 

[clivex]

Hi Marble,
Moody's had already lowered Britain's AAA rating quite some time ago.
I have no doubt that Standard And Poor will now follow suit in view of Brexit.

How severely this will impact rates of interest charged on British borrowing I'm afraid I can't offer an answer.

I didnt know that. Bond prices will be interesting

 

[Grey]

Clive, being objective, sunybay writes english with less mistakes than you.

Fewer

 

[icebreaker]

Actually, I'll give Ice this one........but clarity in these matters is paramount.

As an act of contrition, I am now writing Ice a cheque for £350M.

Grass, you're absolutely right ! Apologies for the oversight in omitting to specify the currency binary pair. Oversights such as this can lead to gargantuan losses, not to mention grave misunderstandings between posters on internet forums.

If you please, you may denominate your gifting of £350M to me in Bitcoin -- which has spiked $650 today in contrast to the weakness of virtually everything else ---- and send to the bitcoin address in my signature. Thank you.

 

[simmo]

is a unilateral second independence referendum binding on the UK government?

The current referendum is not binding on the UK government, it is merely advisory. A unilateral referendum would be no more or less binding.

I notice that Sinn Fein are also asking for a referendum on Irish unity in the face of the result. I would certainly endorse such a vote.

 

[tiggers1972]

I love the way the remain campaign have been so dignified in defeat.

 

[icebreaker]

I love the way the remain campaign have been so dignified in defeat.

Yes, hasn't it been so edifying !
And would you also agree with me that the vitriol that has been directed at older voters by many commentators and vox pop interviewees has been quite obnoxious? The whining about "our future, not your's" etc etc from the younger people shows the worst side of the "it's all about me" generation.

 

[Grasshopper]

I can't let that one go without comment, Ice.

If the voting-demographic is to be believed, then the complaint about the older (65+) generation is sustained, imo.

It's really nothing to do with the selfishness of youth. It's about my children being denied the same opportunities that were available to me. In that sense, the referendum has been massively regressive, and the grey/baby-boomer vote, has undoubtedly heavily-influenced the outcome. This isn't an election where we can change our minds in 5 years time - it's an irriversible decision - and in an act of massive self-interest, they have left no Werthers Originals in the bag.

PS. I have sellotaped a £350M bitcoin to the inside of an envelope, and popped it in the post to you. Don't spend it all in the one shop.

 

[clivex]

Oh ffs

what "opportunities" are being taken away by this?

thats just pie in the sky stuff

no one has ANY right at all to complain about a demographic. The older voters as they are patronisingly referred to, have paid their taxes for years and probably have a far better objective view of the sheer uselessness of the eu over the past 40 years. Rather that than some wishy washy student drivel

 

[icebreaker]

one which now denies my children the same opportunities that were available to me.

That, of course, is debatable ..............unless one possesses the ability to foretell the future.
What is definitive, tho', is that the older folk have every much a right as the younger ones to vote their preference any which way they wish and without consequent venom or malevolence directed at them for doing so.

 

[Grasshopper]

The opportunity to move freely about the continent to find work has been taken away.

I don't direct venom at these older voters - I am merely stating the facts as I see them. Indeed, if you want to find evidence of venom and malevolence in this debate, I will helpfully direct you to your pal Clivex's posts on this very thread - many of which you have applauded - so let's try not to be hypocritical, eh?

 

[Colin Phillips]

Does seem a bit selfish though. I consulted my daughters about their thoughts before voting to remain.

 

[Grasshopper]

It is also a sweeping generalisation to say every older voter has voted in a 'selfish' manner, Col........but clearly many have not accounted for the impact on the younger generation......or possibly they did consider it, and decided there were factors of more importance to their decision.

 

[BennyB]

Just on the points made about markets. Firstly FTSE 100 futures are 2.3pc down on yesterday's close. So we can expect further sharp falls on Monday.

Secondly the FTSE 100 is the wrong market to look at. 70pc of earnings come from overseas and are bolstered by the weak pound. Many constituents have little or no exposure to the UK economy and simply happen to be listed here. The FTSE 250 index is much more domestically focused and fell over 7pc yesterday.

If Clive, Ice et al think the market reaction to Brexit is limited to what happened yesterday they are sadly mistaken.

 

[clivex]

Yes, hasn't it been so edifying !
And would you also agree with me that the vitriol that has been directed at older voters by many commentators and vox pop interviewees has been quite obnoxious? The whining about "our future, not your's" etc etc from the younger people shows the worst side of the "it's all about me" generation.

I agree with this. On the night itself there was a horrible interview with a bunch of students in Worcester. Ive heard more articulate cabbages.

Still ll they are young enough to have options. They could go and try and get a yoof job in Spain or France couldn't they

 

[clivex]

Just on the points made about markets. Firstly FTSE 100 futures are 2.3pc down on yesterday's close. So we can expect further sharp falls on Monday.

Secondly the FTSE 100 is the wrong market to look at. 70pc of earnings come from overseas and are bolstered by the weak pound. Many constituents have little or no exposure to the UK economy and simply happen to be listed here. The FTSE 250 index is much more domestically focused and fell over 7pc yesterday.

If Clive, Ice et al think the market reaction to Brexit is limited to what happened yesterday they are sadly mistaken.

the poimt about the markets is that even if that 2% fall happens on Monday it will still be way above where it was in march. In fact it would where it was in monday

armageddon ...

the other point about markets is that if anyone knew exactly what was going to happen they wouldn't be working . I don't think anyone on this forum is in that situation

 

[BennyB]

I expect the uk market to move around 10pc lower over the next week. Of course I don't know that, and I'm not going short, but markets hate uncertainty and that's what they've just been given a massive dose of. People will look at Friday's relatively small drop and think next week is their opportunity to get out.

 

[icebreaker]

If Clive, Ice et al think the market reaction to Brexit is limited to what happened yesterday they are sadly mistaken.

Well Benny, if you firmly believe that there is to come a worsening of the market prices, then, why don't you just short the shares of your choice, then?
Honestly, this reply is NOT me trying to be a smartarse, .............I genuinely ask. If the immediate future is to be as you say, then you have a gold-egg opportunity.

 

[icebreaker]

Oops, cross-posted with you.

 

[BennyB]

Because (a) it's hard to make money spread betting, especially in volatile markets. Where would I put my stop loss? Easy to get stopped out by a rapid swing and lose money even though you were 'right'. (b) I'm a long term investor rather than a short term trader. All my spare capital is in the market - if I wanted to act in anticipation of a fall I could take some money off the table, but again timing these decisions is almost impossible.

I'd rather buy shares in companies I like (or units in a fund with a proven manager) and leave them to grow. If the FTSE heads down to 5,500 or less I'll probably add to a few positions.

 

[icebreaker]

All my spare capital is in the market - if I wanted to act in anticipation of a fall I could take some money off the table,

You could of course leverage your stake. And, I thought you would be aware that if you went short in the futures market you would not have to stump up until the "call" or when your trade went against you.
No, I suspect that the real reason why you decline to "play" is that you are unsure, yet you state that Clive and I are "sadly mistaken" when we make a differing analysis of what may happen.

 

[BennyB]

I've clearly stated my position. I'm not sure what more I could add. I expect markets to fall further, though obviously I don't know for sure. If and when they do, I intend to add to some of my investments.

I don't particularly like spread betting or futures/options trading, but don't patronise me by telling me I don't know how they work. I've done exams in derivatives trading FFS.

 

[reet hard]

I'm an 'older voter', not generally considered racist or senile, and I voted out with my grandkids future firmly in mind.
Like Topsy, the EU has grown too big too quickly, and our exit may well prove the clarion call that brings the over=admistrated monolith to its senses, for the eventual advancenent of us all.
Just hope that megalomanic harridan isn't allowed to lead Scotland out of the UK, in a fit of pique that would benefit neither.