Champion Hurdle 2013

There's little doubt that Grandouet is a top-class animal, but none of his three outings at Cheltenham convince me it's his track.

He travelled like the winner in Zarkandar's Triumph Hurdle, but only stayed-on at one-pace after the last, and it was a similar - albeit a winning - outcome when he won his Bula, where he again found little off the bridle. The same thing happened again in the most recent Bula, where he got a peach of a ride from Geraghty, but again failed to quicken up. Fitness (and to a lesser extent, ground) was offered as the excuse at the time, but I'm not convinced.

The three other principals are all stronger stayers, and he will need to find plenty when he comes off the bridle, to win this Champion Hurdle. On my interpretation of the evidence, it is debatable as to whether he will find enough, and he's the one to take on in the place-market, imo.
 
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Grasshopper said:
He travelled like the winner in Zarkandar's Triumph Hurdle, but only stayed-on at one-pace after the last, and it was a similar - albeit a winning - outcome when he won his Bula, where he again found little off the bridle.
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The RP analysis sees it differently:
GRANDOUET came here on the back of a win in Haydock´s Betfair Hurdle, a race won by his stablemate Binocular en route to taking this event (which was run at Ascot) in 2008. He travelled noticeably well, delivered his challenge at the last and ran on very well for pressure up the hill, putting paid to any doubts that this was not his track.
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I still think Grandouet would have won last year's race despite the relatively poor record of 5yos. He's a year older and entitled to be stronger if not better than last year.
 
"Found little" possibly too strong on my part.

"Found less than I expected, considering how well he was travelling" is probably more accurate. The overall point still stands.
 
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This is like history repeating itself. I had the self same debate with regards to Sprinter Sacre when Al Ferof fans said he wouldn't get up the hill and I'll give the same reply here as I did back then with the same justification. Maybe even moreso.

Grandouet was a big weak gangly baby when he ran in the Triumph Hurdle and Nicky Henderson said before the race.."Mines could do with another year on his back and may find this a bit to much for him"

A year on he took on Overturn and Menorah with a view to finding out how he would handle the hill and drew the words "Will he get up the hill" "You bet he will" right after the race from the Commentator when he put 4 lengths between himself and Overturn from well after the last to the winning post. He actually never got into full flight until he hit the steepest part of the hill and you Grassy are talking complete nonsense.

Unfortunately he lost out running in the Champion Hurdle due to injury and after a year and 5 days off the course took on Rock on Ruby and the eventual winner Zarkandar (receiving 4lbs).

Grandouet was hacking all over Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby 2 out and looked all over the winner but suddenly lost 3 lengths on the leader just after they turned for home.

The lay off had taken it's toll and what actually happened was Grandouet blew up on the home turn. Barry knew he was beaten so he just sat there and made no effort to close the gap giving him as much time as he possibly could to get his second wind. He got after him ( not wanting to be too hard on him) well after the last and despite his lack of race fitness got within a length of Zarkandar when they hit the steepest part of the hill.

They were absolutely thrilled with his performance and he had come on a ton after the race when they lost Haydock to the weather and then he had his set back.

He was in Nicky's own words in "fantastic form" prior to Haydock being lost and while going the right way the hope is they will have him back to the somewhere near that point after his racecourse gallop today then it will just be a case of ticking him over until Champion Hurdle day. If he arrives there 99% fit it won't be good enough as you need to be 110% fit just to run in the damn race.

Sure Hurricane Fly might do him for toe if he is bang there on the steel with him at the last but if Grandouet is 110% on the day he is a certainty to be right there at the last, as he is the best traveler in the race by a mile. Hurricane Fly with his possibly ageing legs is anything but certain to get there as easily so my cash is on Grandouet for that reason.

If Grandouet is beaten it will not be because of the hill something BG or NH even consider as being a problem. It will be because Hurricane Fly has superior speed or Rock on Ruby somehow manages to take the sting out of all their tails like he did last season.

PS After reading your post Grassy, you are so far of the mark it encouraged me so I backed him again :D Actually I was going to anyway as I expect a positive response from the press after he works today and for him to drop a bit in price;)
 
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He will be beaten because he's spent more time in the pool than on the gallop in the past month. If he wins he's a proper star.
 
When Hurricane Fly wins, his pre race doubters will be crabbing the form of the race before he's even gotten into the winners enclosure. Zarkandar didn't have the race run to suit, Grandouet needed it blah blah blah.
 
Hezz - that happens after every race and the Hurricane Fly fans were all saying it last year - interrupted preparation , never been right blah blah blah - despite having run away with the Irish Champion Hurdle .
 
hezz said:
When Hurricane Fly wins, his pre race doubters will be crabbing the form of the race before he's even gotten into the winners enclosure. Zarkandar didn't have the race run to suit, Grandouet needed it blah blah blah.
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hilarious considering the excuses i've read re HF last year..you havin a laugh surely?

if those that train the stayers allow an easy pace then they must be stupid tbh..because there will be only one winner of a soft pace
 
Trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-5-28
6yo: 2-4-37
7yo: 4-5-32
8yo: 2-3-24
9yo: 1-2-9
10yo: 0-1-5
11yo+: 0-0-9
9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just over 70.8% of total runners.
The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.
Horses aged 10+ have record of 0-1-14 since 2003, the only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.

Horses that ran well in this aged 5
Record of horses that had finished in first 5 as 5yos in following renewal:
In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998
In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998
In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002
In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008
In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009
In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009
In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010
In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010
In the past 15 years there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8). Zarkandar qualifies this year.

Gender
All four mares (0-0-4) to run in the past 10 renewals have been unplaced. Since 2000 only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in grade 1 or 2)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 160+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (2 expcetions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)
10 of 10 winners were second, third or fourth season hurdlers
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (Rooster Booster had won a grade 2, Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)
The 10 winners had collectively had 33 prior hurdles starts the year they won it. In the 32 they completed, they finished in first 3 in 30 of them.

Big Field Form
When looking at the form of the past 10 winners, it is noticeable that their recent form in bigger fields was superior to that of form in smaller fields when running in hurdles races over 2M to 2M 1F.
Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 10+ runners: 25-7-34
Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 9 or fewer runners: 17-9-35
The last 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all of their last 4 starts in 2M-2M 1F hurdles with 10 or more runners.

Last year’s race
Rock On Ruby won last year’s Champion Hurdle by almost 4 lengths from Overturn and form of the race has worked out quite well. Runner-up Overturn has won both his starts since under NH rules (in chases), 3rd Hurricane Fly has won 4 grade 1’s from 4 starts since, while 5th Zarkandar has won both completed starts since (in grade 2’s) and 8th Zaidpour has also won a grade 1 since.
The combined subsequent hurdles record of all 10 runners is 7-2-20.
The form next time out of the 10 horses, to come out of the race and run under NH rules since, reads 3113F422 (2-0-8).

Cheltenham Festival Form
Defending Champion Hurdler (Rock On Ruby): R21324693 (1-4-9)
Triumph Hurdle winner (Countrywide Flame): 0F61235 (1-2-7)
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner (Cinders And Ashes): 035005 (0-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices: 0635P0305 (0-2-9)
Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 1621 (2-1-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 1333
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
4 of 4 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival
5 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (4 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme or Neptune)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (exception was hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)
Hurricane Fly is looking to become only the second horse in Champion Hurdle history to regain the title. Comedy Of Errors did it 1975, after winning the race in 1973 and finishing 2nd in 1974.

Other races
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 111613 (4-1-6)
Istabraq Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 7512061 (2-1-7)
Contenders Hurdle winner: 1006721 (2-1-7)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 0451400613 (2-1-10)
International Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 18962325 (1-3-8)
Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (Countrywide Flame): 525P01022 (1-3-9)
Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 21 (1-1-2)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 21F96 (1-1-5)
Anniversary Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 786135 (1-1-6)
Kingwell Hurdle winner: 386P1004 (1-1-8)
Follow Navan On Facebook Hurdle winner (Cause Of Causes): 1 (1-0-1)
Ascot hurdle winner (Oscar Whisky): 432 (0-2-3)
Previous season's Adonis Hurdle winner (Grumeti): F335 (0-2-4)
Champion Hurdle Trial winner (): 024379 (0-2-6)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Darlan): 5325004 (0-2-7)
Relkeel Hurdle winner (Oscar Whisky): 3 (0-1-1)
Betfair Hurdle (Haydock 19 Nov) winner (Balder Succes): 3 (0-1-1)
Punchestown Champion 4yo Hurdle winner (Hisaabaat): 380 (0-1-3)
Grimes Hurdle winner (Rebel Fitz): 48 (0-0-2)
Galway Hurdle winner (Rebel Fitz): 87 (0-0-2)
William Hill Priority Prices Handicap Hurdle winner (Raya Star): 07 (0-0-2)
Betfair Handicap Hurdle winner: P05 (0-0-3)
Elite Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 9049 (0-0-4)
Aintree Hurdle winner (Oscar Whiskey): 4769 (0-0-4)
Top Novice hurdle winner (Darlan): 600P0 (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 1111
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Aintree Hurdle, finishing 4F
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Istabraq Festival Hurdle, finishing 7311
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 311
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time, finishing 21
3 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315
3 of 5 British-trained winners (last 3) ran in Christmas hurdle, finishing F32
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time, finishing 13
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Contenders Hurdle last time, finishing 11
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the International Hurdle, finishing 12

Trainers
Irish trained runners (5-5-54) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (2-5-13) has saddled 2 winners and 5 places from 13 runners in past 10 renewals.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-7), Paul Nicholls (1-1-8) and Willie Mullins (1-1-9) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher since 2003. Alan King (1-0-5) is only other trainer with an entrant to have won this in past 10 years.
Donald McCain (0-2-4) has trained the runner-up in past 2 years while the Pipe Stable (0-2-7) has filled a couple of places in past 10 runnings.

Price
5 of the last 6 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1
Longer prices have done best in past 6 years with Hurricane Fly’s win at 11/4 the only recent winner priced shorter than 9/1.
Favourites (3-4-11) have taken just 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Gelding aged 6 to 9
· Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
· Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
· Run 2 to 5 times this season
· 2nd season hurdler that finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at 2012 Festival or
· 3rd or 4th season hurdler
· Finished in first 4 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners
· Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
· Finished in first 3 in 2012 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2012 Festival
· Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle
· Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
· British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth, Inernational and/or Christmas Hurdle
· Ran in Kingwell, Contenders or Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time
· Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland
 
Ardross said:
Hezz - that happens after every race and the Hurricane Fly fans were all saying it last year - interrupted preparation , never been right blah blah blah - despite having run away with the Irish Champion Hurdle .
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There's a difference between 1 horse under-performing and p-ssing all over the form of a race.
 
Some people are now saying Hurricane Fly won a weak Champion Hurdle. Presumably they are basing this on the subsequent performances of Peddlers Cross and last season's efforts by the Fly himself, because at the time it was perceived as a hot race. I think myself that Donald McCain has it right when he says both horses paid the price last season for the huge battle they had with each other. I'm not so sure I agree with him when he says that Peddlers has got over it now, I doubt that he ever will (I know he ran well at Kelso the other day but I would still fear for him in a hard race), but the signs are that the Fly is back. At this stage his price is too short but I certainly won't be opposing him.
 
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William Hill today HF 3/1 if you call at 9am. Unfortunately as you can imagine all you can get is £49.50 .After queueing on the phone . I wanted a grand . They are happy to lay the rest though at 9/4. What a waste of time
 
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That's the big question Hezz did he under perform or was he simply beaten by superior animal in Rock on Ruby? You could use Overturn as yardstick and say he did under perform or you could say the pace killed him and he was unable to quicken enough of it to win.

Willie Mullins was worried before the Irish Champion Hurdle because he was so quiet in the paddock but the horse won by a mile.

Look back at what Willie Muins had to say on the Sunday before last years race.

: "He's a very special horse - we've known that since the beginning and his record of ten Grade 1 wins speaks for itself. All has gone really well with him since his win in the Irish Champion Hurdle."

"His work and his schooling has been very good and we're all looking forward to seeing him attempt to defend his crown. The ground is going to be safe and he is all set."

It would appear if he was under par Mullins was a lot less worried than he was before he won the Irish version in a common canter.

No doubt someone may mess up during next weeks race but whichever horse wins the race deserves massive credit as this is a far better race than either Binocular or Hurricane Fly won and maybe you will be able to add to the list Rock On Ruby's race.

Binocular beat Khyber Kim but the rest were pretty moderate bar Go Native but he never ran a yard in the race. Khyber Kim was no mug. When he was with Nicky Henderson he reckoned he would win a Champion Hurdle won day and he did go on to frank the form by winning the Aintree Hurdle.

Hurricane Fly beat Peddlers Cross who took him all the way. You could hardly say he was a crack 2 miler as his best win at the trip came when he was all out to beat Starluck in the Fighting Fifth a horse Binocular used to kick aside for fun at his best.

Hurricane Fly has a fantastic record in Ireland beating Champion Hurdle no hopers hands down but the fact is the Champion Hurdle he won was, like Binocular's not a great one and he is 1 for 2 at Cheltenham.

Both Binocular and Hurricane Fly are/were good enough to go close in any Champion Hurdle ever run but neither is a Night Nurse or an Istabraq.

The jury is still out on Rock on Ruby if he did the same again this year as last he'd go down as one of the best we have aver seen.

For Hurricane Fly to join the elite he's going to have to win this and win it well.

This is one tough race Rock On Ruby is a young horse who won this last year easily going away. Grandouet made complete mincemeat of Overturn and can't be far behind ROR if at all. Zarkandar hasn't stopped improving and has put up 2 stellar performance this season. Binocular is pure class when on song and ridden closer to the pace this year he could make them all go. Cinders and Ashes slaughterd Darlan in last years Supreme a return to that form and he could easily win this, John Quinn is adamant we'll see a much better Countryside Flame if we get goodish ground and the same applies to Cotton Mill.

Everyone of them has a decent chance of they turn up at their best and this 3/1 Hurricane Fly reflects that. Last year he was even for the race yet they say he wasn't 100% now he's 100% his odds are 3 times as much.

That in itself tell you this wont be easy so saying when Hurricane Fly wins is a bit over the top.

Personally I think he'll get stuffed..he's very consistent but the best ever?........never in a zillion years and on Tuesday if anyone will be trying to make excuses I reckon it will be Hurricane Fly's fans, only this time no one will listen
 
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I think the ground will be soft or heavy, and there's no better horse than HF in the soft. The rest all act best on ground ground. Coutrywide Flame for a place, as he likes it soft, too.
 
Good analysis Tanlic.

I say when he wins because I feel he's the best horse in the race by some way and I believe he wasn't right last season. You may disagree, as do others. That's fine, it's just opinions. We can go around in circles on this point, but why bother.

You've made several references above to the fact that the field looks very good.
This comes back to my point that when, ok, if HF wins, I hope u (and other doubters) won't be one of those back tracking and p-ssing on the form. From ur posts you're very open minded so I wouldn't expect you to.

I never said he was the greatest ever, and I'm not sure who, if anyone did. But if you're saying he'll need to be to win this Im not sure why.
 
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I honestly don't know if Hurricane Fly was wrong in himself or not last season, like most I am simply guessing. I've pointed out the big drift when he ran in The Irish CH several times and cited it as a reason to believe it was. However weighing that up against the pace changes injected firstly by Overturn and the right behind that Rock On Ruby there's good reason to think it was those that had both Hurricane Fly and Binocular in trouble.

I think looking at form and thinking that can't be right in a instance like that is a mistake.
Tactics like those used by Rock on Ruby will often turn form on it's head.

Whatever happens this year I would imagine Ruby and AP won't be lying out the back door and falling into the same trap again. So really it doesn't make any difference if Hurricane Fly was a bit off colour last year. If he truly is the best hurdler in the British Isles and Rock On Ruby can't put daylight between him and the others coming down the hill then Hurricane Fly should win.

I just happen to believe that Rock On Ruby might get most of them at it again but would have to sprout wings to steal a march on Grandouet who never seems to be out of a canter no matter how fast the leaders go and I reckon he's the horse most likely to still be on the steel where it counts.

The fact is Rock On Ruby is fully exposed and we all know what the tactics will be, as does every jockey in the race so there should be no excuses.
 
My contention since the last Champion Hurdle is not that HF "wasn't right" but that he needs races to get to maximum fitness, and was therefore under-cooked going into the Champion Hurdle.

Let's be clear here. He finished third in the Champion Hurdle in his last defeat in Gawd only knows how long. It's not like he was tailed-off. And he went into that race on the back of one prep run, where he surprised connections by how easy he won.

It's perfectly possible that his preparation went well between the Irish and Cheltenham Champion Hurdles, but if the horse was only (say) 95% fit due to the lack of race-fitness a proper campaign would put on him, then he wouldn't be winning that kind of race anyway.

I could be wrong in my theory, and the time/pace analyses put forward by EC and others may be spot-on. Perhaps he is just a small-field, soft-ground bully? But, imo, adopting such a view might also lead one down a dark alley.

The 2012 Champion Hurdle is the single abberation in a career that is otherwise defined by success; including in a Champion Hurdle (off the back of an interrupted prep). I'm not sure it's wise to effectively dismiss the vast balance of HF's form, and put all one's eggs into the pace-basket, when it's clear - to me, at least - that there were potential mitigating factors which combined to impair Hurricane Fly's performance last season.

All I can hope for is that he runs his race, and may the best horse win. :cool:
 
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