CHampions Day - Ascot

I get my forecast from the metoffice.

London & South East England

Headline:

Mostly cloudy, further rain at times but drier in northwest.
Today:

Bright spells for a time in western parts of Hampshire and Oxfordshire but staying rather cloudy for most with further rain at times, especially early on and later this afternoon, heavy at times later in the far southeast. Maximum Temperature 16 °C.
Tonight:

Cloudy for most overnight with further rain at times this evening. Most areas generally dry later, although further showers are likely to affect southern coastal areas later. Misty in places. Minimum Temperature 11 °C.
Friday:

Staying mostly cloudy with further rain or drizzle at times, the best of any brighter intervals most likely in western and northwestern areas. Maximum Temperature 16 °C.
Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Bright spells later Saturday but, for much of the weekend, rather cloudy with rain early Saturday and much of Sunday. Monday, a drier prospect, some sunny intervals and feeling warmer.

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The second event I highlight has the potential to be heavy for a few hours (in my view). I am a weather nerd...I have been looking at the models a lot recently as we are going through an interesting spell at the minute.
 
look specifically at ascot on the map and forecast. Quite different. Weather at this time of year is very localised isnt it?
 
I never trust those.

It is very hard to predict weather at the moment for a region, so I would take that with a pinch of salt.

Here are the latest rainfall predictions for tonight and tomorrow night. They jive with the metoffice regional forecasts.

There is a lot of warm air over the Benelux which could pep up the event on Friday night.

By the way, it is very difficult to predict at the moment, given the low pressure filling over the British Isles at the moment.

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How much did Kauto Star have on Denman at their peaks, 7, maybe 8 pounds? And yet at Cheltenham on ground with plenty of juice it was the Tank that came out on top.

Conditions can bring once in a lifetime horses close to just plain outstanding ones.
 
For me the key is to know the inside information of Cirrus Des Aigles,


Why he has been out for 4 months,
if it was by design, what we know sis the horse comes for the run and seeing the level he showed in the Dollar make him a top horse on heavy going.


Frankel is the best horse I have seen without any doubt but if he beats Cirrus on heavy ground at 10 f, he is then the best horse I will ever see.
Frankel has been posting running for me in the low 140s and I have the feeling he can do a 147 in my scale but these conditions are unlikely to suit and he has a tough customer in Cirrus. I rate Cirrus on heavy ground a 140+ horse.


It will be a great race.


Euro was talking about Denman and Kauto
but this reminds me more to the Hattons Grace of Limestone Lad and Istabraq
 
Why are "these conditions" unlikely to suit? There is abolsutely nothing in form book, breeding or action to suggest this

Conditions can also make outstanding horses even more dominant. As has been said over and over here, he looks like a horse that will go well with cut. Its a big deep stride with power.

Bar... for what its worth, its a fair bit warmer here today than forecasts were saying. I wouldnt think its far off 20 at the moment. there is no rain in the air at all either
 
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sunybay said:
For me the key is to know the inside information of Cirrus Des Aigles,


Why he has been out for 4 months,
if it was by design, what we know sis the horse comes for the run and seeing the level he showed in the Dollar make him a top horse on heavy going.
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It's no secret that he suffered an infected leg after picking up a minor injury after the Ganay.
 
clivex said:
Why are "these conditions" unlikely to suit? There is abolsutely nothing in form book, breeding or action to suggest this
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Truth is, Clive, he's only raced on ground* with 'soft' in it twice *(RP timed ground - both g/s), on those occasions he beat Nathaniel 0.5l and Roderic O'Connor 2.25l, so it's no foregone conclusion he'll be as good on softer - even disregarding the extra stamina requirement.
 
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You have a horse who you know can run to the low 130s on heavy ground against a horse who can run to the late 130s, early 140s on most ground but never tried on real heavy.

At the prices, I'd have to be with Cirrus as a mathematical proposal but I do hope Frankel wins despite having my balls on a bad ew double with Elusive Kate!
 
Irish Stamp said:
Massively IMO Aragorn - if I knew he was a certain/intended runner and I could get on with them I'd be all over Boyles 33's 3 places :)
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Been declared with Dettori up and still 33/1 but only six runners. I thought he could finish in front of Nathaniel but can't see him in front of CDA or Frankel. This is going to end up a no bet race for me.
 
Check out Five Live right now. There's a two hour discussion featuring a host of racing celebrities about the 'greatest ever'. News is on at the moment followed by an interview with Frankie Dettori.
 
Will be interesting to see how many of the British hacks take Frankel on, and go against the grain of public opinion. Will look at the NAPS table on Saturday with interest.

I just hope the two horses put in their best efforts and the best horse on the day wins.

I do feel the arguments saying how conservatively Cecil has campaigned Cecil are starting to contradict themselves, especially given he's up against a horse that people think can beat him on Saturday.
 
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I think the fact that the Champion Stakes is a better race than it used to be helps negate the conservative programme.
 
Alas, I now have to work on Saturday, which means that there are two Ascot Grandstand tickets for Saturday available for anyone who can use them, at face value. Am in Newmarket; will deliver Newmarket/Cambridge/Bury St Edmunds area. PM if interested!
 
Marble said:
I do feel the arguments saying how conservatively Cecil has campaigned Cecil are starting to contradict themselves, especially given he's up against a horse that people think can beat him on Saturday.
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Great trainer as he is, it's hardly adventurous to restrict a horse of Frankel's calibre to 7 or 8f for his first 12 races.
Chances are HRAC knows more than us, but there aren't many of the very best horses been placed so stintingly.
 
RP front page this morning saying Frankel won't run if it's heavy and there's a bad bout of rain forecast for tonight. eurgh.
 
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