Dundalk 2011

swedish chef said:
Had a message from a friend in Canada but can't find a bookies taking bets for Oakland Park USA - anyone know of any?

Ramon Dominguez has gone down to ride No3 Havre de Grace - Oaklawn Race 10.
Connections are confident and its been working out like a freak
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Race #10
OAKLAWN PARK HANDICAP The 47th Running of THE APPLE BLOSSOM $500,000 Guaranteed

PP Horse Jockey Win Place Show
3 Havre De Grace Ramon Dominguez $3.00 $2.20 $2.10
5 Switch Joel Rosario $3.00 $2.10
1 Absinthe Minded Terry Thompson $2.60
2 Miss Match (ARG) Garrett Gomez
 
It does IS. My 3 for the day:

2:20 Tsar Paul - Very Good Course Record. I expect to bounce out and try steal it from the front. (Danger - Prescient)
3:20 Isabellareine - Very Good Course Record.
3:50 Solent Ridge - Inconsistent sort, but jockey got good tune out of him the last day at bellewstown and blinkers seemed to make a difference.
 
My bets are:

14:20 Presicent (thrown in on debut 3rd to Misty For Me), Primalova the danger

14:50 McMonagle

15:20 Solo Performer (chancing on trip but worth an ew @ 16's)
 
Borrowed from Shanto on Racecaller site.

Dundalk
2.50 Good Shot Noreen (each way) clearly needed the run on her racecourse debut but she did well on her next 2 runs in maidens. She was 3rd in a 6f Navan maiden on her second outing, finishing only a half length behind Still Point, who was beaten less than a length in a Cork maiden next time out and won next time at Down Royal. The 4th Balmont Mast who was giving Good Shot Noreen 5lbs, finished 4th of 15 in a Navan handicap next time off 78.
Good Shot Noreen struggled with the early pace in a 5f Tipp maiden on third start before staying on well for 3rd. She was beaten 5 lengths by the winner Rose Bonheur who has seriously franked the form since. The 2nd Marvada was beaten a half length in to 2nd in a Dundalk maiden next time and then won next 2 starts. The 5th El Toreros was also runner-up in a Gowran maiden on his next start.
Good Shot Noreen was bumped badly at start on her handicap debut last 6f at Navan and then found more trouble in running, finishing 9th of 14, beaten 5 lengths off a mark of 70. She put in a better run last time in a 7f Limerick handicap off 68, racing prominently throughout and 2nd at the furlong pole before getting passed late on and finishing 4th. The drop back to 6f should suit better and Tommy Stack is a good trainer to follow at Dundalk, 22% strike rate and a very big profit shown over the last 5 years. If Good Shot Noreen is 4/1 (Racing Post tissue) or better then she'd be a solid each way bet as she ought to make the places at worst.

4.20 Giant Slalom may now be ready to get back to winning ways. All 4 of his wins have come over 7f, 3 of which were in handicap company. He won a Wolverhampton handicap off 74 in Sept 2007 and followed that up with a Doncaster handicap win off 77 the following month. He had to wait almost a year and a half before his next win, in a 7f Leop handicap off 56 in March 2009. He hasn’t won since that success but he is racing off a career low mark and he put in his best run for over a year last time when 3rd in a 7f Fairyhouse handicap off this mark last time. The form of the run has been boosted by 4th finishing 2nd and 1st off same mark on next 2 runs and the 8th Sun Disc was 2nd off same mark yesterday. Fran Berry is an eye-catching jockey booking, as he has only ridden one other horse for McCourt this year, which was a 12/1 winner.

Killarney on Tues:

6.50 Whitehorne Scent (each way) could prove well treated on her handicap debut. She has put in 2 good runs in maidens from her 3 starts to date. She was a staying on 5th of 16 in a 1m Listowel maiden on debut last month, beaten only 5 lengths at the line and form of the run looks solid. She disappointed in a Ballinrobe maiden next time on soft when the ground and possibly the right handed track were against her. The return to a left handed track and better ground saw her put in a better effort on most recent start when 4th in a 1m Navan maiden on good to yielding. She was well backed that day from 14/1 into 8/1 and looked likely to play a big hand 2 furlongs out but couldn’t sustain her effort, finishing between 3rd and 5th (who she was getting 5lbs from both) who are rated 73 and 69. Whitethorne Scent is a half sister to Excellent Girl who gained her only win over 1m2f and finished 2nd in a 1m 3f group 3. The step up in trip should suit Whitethorne Scent and looks well handicapped off 62. Joseph Murphy has won with 4 of his 11 runners at the track in past 5 seasons and he trained the winner of this in 2009.
 
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Good Card Today.

2.35
I cannot understand the set up of the first race. You have a horse in Calm Bay rated 20lb's higher than Red Army Blues getting weight. Calm Bay is consistent and can get his head in front.

3.05
I make it between Bogini and Disagree. First time blinkers should improve Disagree but I don't think this will matter if Bogini is fit. 74 Day break worries me and i'll plump for Disagree.

3.35
Mark Johnston raiding Dundalk again and hard to know exactly what Below Zero is capable of. The Reaper is rock solid but handicapper may just have him. Conditions in his favour (6f on top of the ground) and he sould figure. Tentative selection for Below Zero.

4.05
Bit of a puzzler in that I can see Jemima’s Pearl improving a lot for the blinkers and would imagine Murtagh will bounce out and try steal it from the front. On form, she has the least in the book of the market principles and if Gush is fit, she should take this. First time blinkers for Mahaazen as well, so improvement expected. Very interesting battle. Gush to nab Jemima’s Pearl close home.
6.00
Battle of Saratoga to take the beating. Best bet on the card for me.
 
Todays Dundalk bets:

17:10 Desert Ben @ 16/1 EW (Stan James) - collared late on over CD last month having traded short IR, disappointing back on turf since then and gives the impression he'd be better suited to 7f but given the price he's worth an E/W bet.

18:10 Ionisphere @ 16/1 EW (Coral) - has run some sound races over the course most notably when chasing home Chaparro last September (off 51) and he's since run well behind Mr Pianist a couple of times over course and distance off higher marks, not done so well on turf and over fences since then but has dropped to a mark of 50 and looks capable of running a very big race with the capable Ben Curtis on board.

Martin
 
Not a bad day at Dundalk, Desert Ben again traded fairly short IR before finishing third whilst Ionisphere ran on well enough in second in the finale.

:)
 
19:30 - Via Mia @ 25/1 (General) - Has had just one CD effort when finishing runner-up to No Trimmings under Gary Carroll back in December 2010, has also placed over 7f (albeit beaten 12 lengths) and was beaten just 4 1/2 lengths over the same trip previously. Has been in poor form on the turf thus far this year but is arguably a better horse on the AW and makes her reappearance off a near 3 month lay-off here with her trainer in ok form (had a placing at Ballinrobe the other day) whilst the ever capable Steven Gray takes a valuable 7lbs off.

20:30 Blue Ridge Lane @ 25/1 (General) - Was in decent heart earlier in the year over this course - with his only winning effort coming when taking a 5k conditions race under Gary Carroll, he was then beaten just 4 1/4 lengths off 80 in a handicap over 10.5f in a similar race to this prior to another ok effort stepping back up to this trip in an 11k handicap here in April. He's been in poor form in Maiden Hurdles and Handicaps on turf since though they clearly aren't his cup of tea, yet ran respectably enough in a much much better race than this on turf at the Galway Festival in July. I don't know much about C T Keane who takes the ride tonight but a quick check shows he's ridden some decent races of late and shows a modest LSP at the course and has his first ride for John McConnell here tonight.

Good luck to all playing on the golden sands of Dundalk tonight :)

Martin
 
Via Mia unplaced last week and Blue Mountain Ridge 2nd beaten a head - place return not too bad.

Tomorrow's card looks trick though - will wait to see the prices before playing ;)
 
Really like Just on Fire in the second division of the 50-70 handicap. Best form is over 7f but the manner and time of his last win at Down Royal shows me that this 1m is well within his compass. Has plenty of room for improvement and seems to be getting the hang of racing and has improved significantly from a change in tactics to a more prominent racing style. Up 10lbs for that facile win at DR but this may not stop him. Andy Oliver's horses are in great form and drawn in trap 3 will be a help. This value concept is over played but would have backed him at 7/1 so the 10/1 freely available is a good EW punt for me.
 
On The Bridle said:
Really like Just on Fire in the second division of the 50-70 handicap. Best form is over 7f but the manner and time of his last win at Down Royal shows me that this 1m is well within his compass. Has plenty of room for improvement and seems to be getting the hang of racing and has improved significantly from a change in tactics to a more prominent racing style. Up 10lbs for that facile win at DR but this may not stop him. Andy Oliver's horses are in great form and drawn in trap 3 will be a help. This value concept is over played but would have backed him at 7/1 so the 10/1 freely available is a good EW punt for me.
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What a man. Surely the next Dalai Lama, at the least. :adore:
 
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