Irish Flat Season 2011

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gearoid
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Doubled my bet when he went 1.45.On the plus side the reduction factor worked in my favour.
I think the winner is paceless and will struggle to win another race.
 
I've never seen this before but if you watch the Salsabil stakes at Navan today you'll see Chris Hayes basically take a decent swing at Puzzled's head with his whip halfway down the back straight. Never seen anything like it before and to be honest, it was pretty ugly.
 
Decided to dig my way out of trouble with a place
lay on Solis in the last at Wetherby.Also had a tenner on Brink at 170 on Betfair and a place bet on Brink at 22s.
Wife decides herself and child are going to join me for race.Race goes off and it everyone is all over the place-Brink races prominently and I start to get excited and manage my position on Betfair when he hits single figures.
Solis looks like finishing 5th after the last but somehow gets 3rd -I realize I haven't traded out.Wife complains I have a big red head and suggests I give it up -conveniently forgetting what we have been spending all afternoon.
Time for deep breaths.
 
Keep an eye on Oxx's second string in the last. Nibbled at big prices on betfair's win market but also plenty of support in the place market. Ben Curtis is a strong rider but looked "weak" in the finish. I wonder why?

Said on ATR that both his other runners in the 5.10 had got as far they could at home and a run would bring themboth to the next stage. Wakhan is one for the notebook alright.
 
I can't find the relevant thread and post but I believe APACHE has been "rubbished" somewhere on here and Nick Mordin is often laughed at for what he writes so I thought putting the two together might produce a smile or two.

So, courtesy of Warbler/Spook (on OH Racing), he quotes Mordin:

APACHE IS TOP CLASS OVER TWELVE FURLONGS

I admire the way that Aidan O'Brien brings his horses along slowly. They may look ordinary for their first three or four starts. But they often improve massively as they gain fitness and experience and develop into stars. They then hold their go form for far longer than if they'd been pushed hard right from the start.

The best example of this is Peeping Fawn who took four runs to break her maiden. Shen then placed in Classics on her next two starts before winning four Group 1's in a row.

If the clock is any guide APACHE (39) is another future star for Aidan O'Brien. He ran much the fastest time on the card at Leopardstown last Sunday. And he still merited the biggest rating even after I factored in sectional times.

In fact Apache earned a rating that puts him bang there with the top middle distance three year olds. What makes that impressive is he earned the rating in a race where he was unextended.

Apache cruised along in third place behind the searching gallop set by Long Journey Home, The leader just kept on rolling and had everything bar Apache at least half a dozen lengths behind and under pressure early in the straight. But Apache simply glided up to Long Journey Home and smoothly opened up a margin of five and a half lengths with minimal pressure being applied.

The next two races for Apache just have to be the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris. There's surely no point wasting ammunition like this on lower grade races or in tackling older horses when the middle distance three year olds are still looking relatively weak.

Apache is a well balanced, good looking horse that we're surely going to be hearing a lot more of this season.

Runner up LONG JOURNEY HOME (36) is surely going to frank this form with a win if he sticks to maiden company next time. He's capable of taking a Listed race on this showing but is clearly improving with racing just like the winner. If he hadn't been unlucky enough to bump into what's almost certainly a Group 1 rival he would have been a wide margin winner and we'd all be talking about him as a great Irish Derby prospect. Certainly any horse that can set such a strong pace and keep going over a mile and a half this early in his career is probably capable of improvement.
 
The Pretty Polly at the Curragh on Derby weekend is shaping up to be very tasty indeed. Snow Fairy and Midday both reported on target. Add in, possibly, the likes of Misty for Me to see how the 3YOs get on and it should be a very good race.
 
I wish I could be braver at short prices, it's just not my style but he looked a real good thing at odds against.
 
In the 8.25, is it worth chancing that Lady Bennett is a guaranteed place bet, and has a chance of taking the prize if the Roche yolk was flattered at Bellewstown?

4/1 looks like an each way steal as the rest of the runners look poor.

And I might have a tickle on the Oxx filly in the opener. Bolger’s have been very in and out recently, and not sure why Teofilo’s sister isn’t out until July of her 3yo season.
 
Naas (Wednesday) 20:05
1m 0f Michael Higgins & Co Race (3yo plus)

Looks a really nice race with the unexposed Teo's Sister and Cocozza running. The early prices will be worth a look.
 
I would fancy Cocozza but something tells me all has not been well with the colt as he has not run since refusing to be loaded in the Irish 2000 Guineas trial.
 
I would fancy Cocozza but something tells me all has not been well with the colt as he has not run since refusing to be loaded in the Irish 2000 Guineas trial.

Just spoke to someone on this, the horse hurt its back the last day when mucking about in the stalls. They have been patient with the horse as they think the world of it, and they will be gutted if the horse is beaten today. He also said there was someone coming over to look at the horse and they were interested in buying it, they are hoping for a good win tonight and a nice price for the horse afterwards.

Thats the general gist of what was said, he didnt try and put me off backing the horse at all, said that they would be gutted if it was beaten..(Naturally enough I suppose when you have a good one)! My luck is rotten at present and I will find it very hard to get involved to be honest, but thought it worth posting on here.
 
Every single horse in the race looks like a dodgy betting proposition. It is for that reason that I have stuck a small fraction of the Bull's bullion on Dermot Weld's Taamer, who is likely to blow out completely, but has surely a greater than 14/1 chance of recapturing his 2yo form, which will almost certainly be good enough to beat this shower.
 
That' interesting, del. I might have a sneaky €5er reverse on Oxx/Weld.

Might be the call, I might join you should I get involved.

The someone I spoke to is a relation of the owner by the way, so should be trustworthy enough.
 
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