King George 2009

Hamm said:
Should they be shooting JW? :D
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Maybe so... like you say there is obviously something of a point here, but perhaps nothing to get overly hung up on. Nevertheless at top level when push comes to shove it could make the difference between winning and being runner-up.

I've had a thought... perhaps Youmzain doesn't like running either way round.:)
 
jairducochetfan said:
I don't think you're playing the percentages right if you can name six below par runs going right handed but precede to ignore what you've discovered.
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what I discovered is that there are many factors at play here

I'll ask this..do you think he would have won the Brigadier Gerard if it had been 2 furlongs further?
 
I'd say Conduit ran very much to expectations (ie below his US best) in the BG and improved on that in the Eclipse. The evidence this season is that he's a better horse than last season and will impove again for the step up to 12f.

Whether he's worth backing or taking on I haven't decided.
 
EC1 said:
my point was that given 2f further he would have won the BG..the handedness of the course would not have stopped him
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But that's a false premise, EC1.

Were the BG over 12f, it would have been a different field, different pace, etc. He took on specialist 10f horses and nearly beat them. If the race was over 12f he'd have been up against specialist 12f horses and might not have beaten them all.
 
Desert Orchid said:
But that's a false premise, EC1.

Were the BG over 12f, it would have been a different field, different pace, etc. He took on specialist 10f horses and nearly beat them. If the race was over 12f he'd have been up against specialist 12f horses and might not have beaten them all.
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true

but he ran his best 10f form over a track that apparently doesn't suit him..which tells me he has no problem going RH

I am surprised anyone can conclude that he is below his best on RH tracks..the sample is too small for a start..and its not like he runs way below his best

coincidence springs to mind.

I wouldn't be laying him in the KG for a start..its seems odd to do so when people have been happy to back him at the wrong trip this season...first time he gets a race where he has a real chance and he's now layable???
 
Betfair:
Conduit 3.05
TB 5.4
Look Here 7
Golden Sword 7.4

Frozen Fire 16
Ask 17

20+ Bar


I think Conduit and Golden Sword are a little short and the way to go maybe backing Look Here and Tartan Bearer. I'm gonna wait till the day of the race though. Anyone think Look Here might shorten dramatically? I think people love backing the fillies in these races, my mind going back to the rampant gamble on Finsceal Beo:<3: in last year's Queen Anne.
 
I've never held the opinion that Tartan Bearer is top class, regardless of his proximity to good horses in good races.
 
I think this is a case where that has to be made clear before the race. (Especially as a I think Golden Sword is a better horse!).
 
I hope not, I'd prefer Golden Sword as he has kept improving and ran a great race in the Irish Derby. Frozen Fire is inconsistent and somewhat difficult as he showed in the Coronation Cup.
 
I think Golden Sword will be ridden at Ascot in much the sameway to The Curragh and Chester regardless of whether Murtagh rides or not.
 
The ground at Ascot on Sunday night was given as good to firm, good in places, but an unsettled week of weather is forecast.
 
Does anyone know if Alwaary is an intended runner? 25/1 for a horse who could well have won the Princess of Wales seems huge, especially in a year without an obvious superstar
 
Alwaary (USA) 3.c
Ask 6.h
Cima de Triomphe (IRE) 4.c
Conduit (IRE) 4.c
Freemantle 3.c
Frozen Fire (GER) 4.c
Golden Sword 3.c
Look Here 4.f
Rockhampton (IRE) 3.c
Scintillo 4.c
Tartan Bearer (IRE) 4.c
 
Tartan Bearer's form isn't anywhere near as far behind Conduit's as their current prices suggest. Fingers crossed Moore rides the latter too, as that could help him drift a bit more.
 
Ryan has picked the wrong one regardless, Ask will beat both of Stoute's other two. TB is not good enough at this level imo, whilst Conduit won't have the turn of foot required, he is a galloper.
 
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