Novice Chasers 2012-13

On what we've seen so far Simonsig Comfortably,don't think Arvika is the horse they think.Overturn is the only likely danger as well as the jumping.I'm happy taking him on at the prices taking into account his history of jumping.Could see him winning this though with the KG on the horizon for him.
 
The last time Simonsig ran over hurdles he ran off 157 whereas Overturn tun off 166. Granted you'd have to think Simonsig has more scope for improvement being a young up and coming horse but against that he's never faced anything that even comes close to Overturn's class.

Overturn for me will come out on top because he really can jump and the faster he goes the better he gets.

One things for sure Simonsig will find running in the Arkle and trying to keep tabs on an experienced horse like Overturn a lot different than hacking round in some mickey mouse novice chase.
 
I have them in a similar figure over hurdle,
but they are jumping fences now

simonsig much more scope, younger horse, better trainer, better jockey and the form of his kmp race is better than Overturn today.

Style of racing will not be a help for Overturn, lesss with Arvika Legionare disputing the lead with him


at this moment Simonsig is the clear one for the Arkle in my book
 
sunybay said:
simonsig much more scope, younger horse, better trainer, better jockey and the form of his kmp race is better than Overturn today.
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First two points are the reason he's so much shorter (rightfully so)

Better trainer is arguable. Seems to me a lot of owners are sheep.

Kempton looked very good, although Hinterland is overrated due to who trains that horse.

Arvika Ligeonnaire is a better each way proposition than Overturn assuming eight turn up.
 
sunybay said:
I have them in a similar figure over hurdle,
but they are jumping fences now

simonsig much more scope, younger horse, better trainer, better jockey and the form of his kmp race is better than Overturn today.

Style of racing will not be a help for Overturn, lesss with Arvika Legionare disputing the lead with him


at this moment Simonsig is the clear one for the Arkle in my book
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Good point but that's not going to happen IMO all it would do is set up the race for Simonsig. Overturn has only one way of running that is not the case with AL. They won't want to get into an early boxing match imo they'll sit in behind him for the first mile or so before taking him on.......taking on a horse like Overturn early doors wouldn't be the smartest thing they could do.
 
Tanlic said:
Good point but that's not going to happen IMO all it would do is set up the race for Simonsig. Overturn has only one way of running that is not the case with AL. They won't want to get into an early boxing match imo they'll sit in behind him for the first mile or so before taking him on.......taking on a horse like Overturn early doors wouldn't be the smartest thing they could do.
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AL is a confirmed front runner and that is how he will run if they try and hang on to him he will expend energy fighting his jockey a similar situation as to the discussion on tactics re flemenstar in the lexus

i agree with sunys points
 
He's won 2 hurdle races from 4 held up, he's won 3 chases making the running.....as I said he does not necessarily need to make it. In each chase nothing went with him and once he had a soft lead he settled well in front and he settled well when held up over hurdles.

I'm only guessing like you are what they will do but it makes no sense to me if they try and take on Overturn who has a lot more natural speed than their horse does.

If he does I wouldn't give him a hope in hell of winning the race and depending on what turns up he could be a place lay.

In his last outing he was going nowhere in the closing stages and as soon as Townsend tried to get him to quicken he just ran on at the one pace and looked a bit like he was bouncing up and down on the same spot...Lucky those behind were also struggling but then they weren't Simonsig or Overturn.


That to me is a huge worry because he failed to get home on his last visit to Cheltenham and he gave every indication at Leopardstown faced with a much stiffer course against much better horses in March he'll do the same thing again.
 
Sorry not sure what the point is but I think you're comparing Pedlars with overturn. Pedlars couldn't jump fences. Overturn has shown he can jump fluently. According to official ratings, Overturn ran to 168 over hurdles. He probably can't run any better than that. Simonsig ran to 160 over hurdles but doubtless could run better than that, but could he run to 168, decide yourself. Moscow flyer was the only horse that could get near istabraq and would have been second the year of foot and mouth. We know what he did. At the prices ,taking two horses that jump fluently and showed a very high level of ability over hurdles I'll take the one with the better price.
 
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I guess the point i'm making Sheikh is that everyone thought Peddlers could jump a fence and was Arkle favourite until he came up against a proper horse over fences. Probably a weak analogy though!!

Notwithstanding that I think he's an admirable horse but imho is flattered by his hurdle rating and is not built to jump a fence - beating up small fields of average horses from the front is one thing but come March his jumping will be tested and i'd rather be on Simonsig who looks more of a chaser. Good luck to them but he went chasing imo because McCain thought he had a CH horse in Cinders and Ashes which would allow him to step Peddlers up to 3m over hurdles. I have a suspicion the latter might end up in the CH now.
 
Aragorn said:
overturn is not built to jump a fence - beating up small fields of average horses from the front is one thing but come March his jumping will be tested and i'd rather be on Simonsig who looks more of a chaser. QUOTE]

His jumping is going to be under severe pressure with AL pressing for the lead especially if maguire cant get the inner and AL starts leaning to his right so different to bullying average horses on a flat track i think the pair of them are going to set the race up nicely for simonsig
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Sheikh said:
Sorry not sure what the point is but I think you're comparing Pedlars with overturn. Pedlars couldn't jump fences.
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Peddlers Cross never put a foot wrong on his first two starts over fences and there's a quote from McCain somewhere stating he was bought primarily on the basis of fluent jumping in his Point win. It was only when put under pressure by Sprinter Sacre that his jumping went awry. The same may happen to Overturn but then there's nothing to say it won't happen to Simonsig either.
 
Yup Simonsig does look more natural but Overturn has kind of defied logic already. His enthusiasm is rare. I think it's a fair point that (being novices) put under pressure either ones jumping could crumble. Either way, come the day unless one or the other has been found out I'll be backing which ever one is the bigger price. At the mo that looks like being Overturn.
 
I'd be more concerned about Simonsig failing to put in a clear round than I would Overturn.

Barry Geraghty never suggested he should run in the Neptune saying "The longer trip would help his jumping" for the fun of it.

Simonsig has already fallen when he came down at the 3rd last at Castledown and he jumped like a stuffed pig at times in a race at Kelso.

I wouldn't have described him as natural jumper before he went chasing but he's had the best of teachers in Geraghty and so far and yes he's jumped really well.

Overturn on the other hand has always found jumping easy and despite many saying he'd never make a chaser or didn't have an Arkle profile he's taking to chasing like a duck to water.


Jason McGuire said the other day he jumps best when he gets up his neck and asked him to go for it so I would imagine the plan at Cheltenham will be to jump from fence to fence and really go for it from the word go.

As far as him not being built for chasing I don't think he knows what that means. He's very enthusiastic about it all and shows absolutely no fear which is more important than being built like a Sherman tank. He's a small horse but then so was Team Spirit who ran in the National 5 times eventually winning one.

I thought he had already proved he's as good at a jumper of a fence as he was over a hurdle, but obviously some think he won't be able to jump them at speed.......never bothered him over hurdles...I can't see why it will bother him over fences.
 
Being novices, they'll probaly both end up wearing a fence and the bookies will be laughing their heads off. Memories of Nick Dundee still make me shudder.
 
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Sheikh said:
Being novices, they'll probaly both end up wearing a fence and the bookies will be laughing their heads off. Memories of Nick Dundee still make me shudder.
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Gawd forbid Slim that any of them end up as unlucky as him. I can still see Stormin Norman absolutely cantering all over LLT when he came down.

The fall was acceptable as these things happen but how sad was it that it more on less ended the career of one of the best novice chasers in living memory?..cracking horse.
 
Ardross said:
LLT had him stone cold anyway :p
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He didn't at the time but I suspect he would have done a couple of fences later. Nick Dundee at that stage was better than Looks Like Trouble over two and a half miles but his only win over three came in a slowly run affair where plenty of the opposition didn't complete. Most horses get slower with age but significantly he was dropped in trip. Looks Like Trouble on the other hand was a thorough stayer who barring injury could easily have become a multiple Gold Cup winner. One blip in the King George (ground?) but very underrated horse.
 
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