Novice Hurdlers 2011-2012

Apparently confirmed on ATR (I'm not watching) that Fingal Bay has suffered a small setback. Not definitely out of Cheltenham as yet but will know more in the morning.
 
To me, the race he won at Sandown is one of the best novice hurdles this season (2nd and 3rd very decent). He won a very good race (won by the Supreme winner 2 years back) next up at Kempton, showing good speed and a good attitude. He's recently proved his wellbeing on the AW. He seems to have the best profile of any horse in the Supreme Market, and I'm surprised he's not favourite or co-favourite.
 
Both Boston Bob and Simonsig into around 5/1 on Betfair. Fingal Bay last price matched was 20/1. Looking ominous for his supporters.
 
Supposed to be only a little issue. It does look ominous but it could just be people with positions laying off without any real knowledge.
 
Tetlami has been relatively forgotten partly because some of his stablemates (Darlan, Keys and especially Simonsig) have been attracting more attention and partly because the market is yet to settle down.

He has plenty going for him, and if Simonsig runs in the Neptune instead he would quickly drop in price.
 
Zenyatta said:
Both Boston Bob and Simonsig into around 5/1 on Betfair. Fingal Bay last price matched was 20/1. Looking ominous for his supporters.
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Just seen the news on Fingal Bay:

Hobbs told racingpost.com: "I'm not sure at this stage if this will prevent him from running at the festival. We'll monitor the situation and will know more next week."
 
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Looks bad for Fingal. Also looks bad for those that backed Simonsig for Supreme. No Fingal will mean Simon will go for the Neptune.
 
OTB said:
Looks bad for Fingal. Also looks bad for those that backed Simonsig for Supreme. No Fingal will mean Simon will go for the Neptune.
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Is that likely do you think? I've backed Simonsig at 7/1 to win any race at the Festival, but I'm more concerned with FB missing the Neptune.
 
An injury this close to the festival is a worry. I'm just gutted coz i have Simonsig at 33s for the supreme!!
 
OTB said:
An injury this close to the festival is a worry. I'm just gutted coz i have Simonsig at 33s for the supreme!!
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That's bad news for you. I've got him at 7s for any race at the Festival although I'm not that confident about him.

FB has apparently injured his near-hind hamstring but they're not sure if it will stop him taking part. Sounds bad enough to me though.
 
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Indeed it does not sound good for Fingal Bay, and it's tough on connections.

I wonder whether this news will influence the choice of race for Boston Bob? I have assumed all along that he would run in the Neptune because it is the more prestigious race, but he is also favourite for the Albert Bartlett.
 
A hamstring injury doesn't sound particularly promising but obviously no idea how serious.

I always think the market can tell you more in that the people 'on the other side' quite often know a lot more than you. Quite often don't as well but the market moves came well before the announcement so suspect it was initially somebody in the know.
 
All you need is a couple of stable lads with Betfair accounts and it snowballs. Mixed feelings really as I'd like to see him take part but think the Neptune is Simonsig's for the taking now.
 
Got a text just there now saying Sarah Hobbs was on the telly this morning and Fingal Bay was unlikely to run. Anybody see it?
 
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trackside528 said:
Got a text just there now saying Sarah Hobbs was on the telly this morning and Fingal Bay was unlikely to run. Anybody see it?
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No, but if it's a hamstring I would have thought it very likely he won't so near to the race. They need to rest as much as possible to enable it to heal and it can easily go again if tried too early. It's probably best to go with the working hypothesis that he won't run. It would be a bit mad to run on a dodgy hamstring, especially considering he would have to be rested in the meantime.

Although his rider is also gutted I believe he has said the same as Sarah.
 
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A bit more courtesy of the PA. Apparently the owner has not been contacted yet, which would be another reason to stall.

"His jockey Richard Johnson said: "It's not great news that he's not 100%, but at the same time he's a very exciting horse and it would be silly to run him unless he was right."

Hobbs' wife, Sarah, said Fingal Bay is, at this stage, an "unlikely participant" at the Cheltenham Festival.

She told Racing UK: "We've had physio on him - it's a hamstring to the back and we're just trying to treat him.

"These things usually take about 10 days to two weeks so it's going to be touch and go for Cheltenham.

"At this stage he's an unlikely participant really.

"The trouble is his owner Roger Skan is abroad at the moment and we haven't been able to get hold of him or his wife so they don't know yet.

"Roger doesn't like Aintree, he's had a few horses there go wrong so he might go to Punchestown or maybe something here in the future."
 
Just when the Simonsig story seemed to be settling down Barry Geraghty goes and throws another spanner in the works in his At The Races Blog:

"Simonsig really pleased me over eight flights of hurdles, tucked in behind two others and after that it wouldn’t really worry me which of the novice hurdles he went for at Cheltenham. Very sharp."

It must be said, slightly as a result of Fingal Bay but not entirely, I am starting to come round to the idea that the Neptune would be the better target. Can't say that I am overly concerned though, so long as he is there in one or the other.

As for Fingal Bay, it sounds very unlikely that he will make the Festival. It appears the only thing stopping them ruling him out is the fact that they have yet to speak to the owners.
 
Trouble is both Boston Bob and Simonsig, neither certain runners themselves, have been smashed up already. Perhaps Monksland, next best and a certain runner, is the EW value . . . ? The problem is that I don't particularly fancy him! :lol:

If you were 'in the know' on everything then you could make a tidy sum no doubt about it. You'd need to know:

Fingal Bay - In or out?
Simonsig - Supreme or Neptune?
Boston Bob - Neptune or Potato?

With the above three questions answered you would be in a very strong position.
 
It's more than 90% certain that FB won't line up for anything at the Festival and even if he did it would be odds on the hamstring would go in the same place... I say this as one with money on him.

Assuming FB doesn't run Simonsig would probably be switched.

I haven't got a view on BB.
 
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