Novice Hurdlers 2011-2012

It's amazing how a financial interest will blinker a man's view as to which race would best suit a horse.
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Guilty as charged.

I have Simonsig (Supreme) in doubles and a treble with Boston Bob (Neptune) and Moscow Mannon (Bumper). I'll be off soon to picket Seven Barrows and Closutton until they choose the correct races.
 
Shame I love the horse's attitude - his grinding of Simonsig into the dust at Sandown was the novice performance of the season.
 
How helpful:

Owner Graham Wylie insists no decision has been made on which race exciting novice Boston Bob will contest at the Cheltenham Festival.
The seven-year-old is unbeaten in three starts since joining Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins and heads the betting for the three-mile Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle as well as being a prominent contender for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle.
"I'm going to leave it up to Willie," said Wylie.
"Two weeks ago he was leaning towards running in the Neptune, a week ago he was leaning towards the Albert Bartlett and now Fingal Bay is out of the Neptune so Willie is thinking about that again.
"I would imagine in around 10 days he'll make a decision one way or another."
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Right enough I would imagine myself he won't run in both races.
 
Simonsig must be the most taked about novice hurdler in the country. so much so you could almost use the word hype.

Doesn't much matter where he runs IMo He's priced about right maybe even a little short for the Supreme at 10/1 and 7/2 for the Neptune is very skimpy.

I think you have to ask yourself why was he beaten last time and why is Nicky Henderson still apprehensive about running him in the Neptune.

He was absolutely cruising at Sandown but found very little off the bridle. Was he outclassed or is he a bit of a bridle horse? is a question I was asked recently.

I don't think he is but I do wonder does he really stay 2m4f in top class company. He certainly hit a wall when he hit the Sandown Hill.

Nicky claims he's got bundles of speed and it may well be that 2 miles will prove to be his best trip.

He did win two P2P's over 3 miles and won a poor 2m4f race but class can take you much further than you reaaly want to go when the opposition is weak.

I just ask myself if he does genuinely stay, then he's got to be a bridle horse? or Fingal Bay is a wonder horse?. You don't go from hacking to nothing like he did at Sandown without something being amiss.

All in all I think he's one dodgy bet for the festival and best ignored.

I had an interest on Cotton Mill at 25/1 for the Neptune. Trained by John Ferguson he's got plenty speed is as game as a pebble and looks the type that could easily be concerned in the finish and is unbeaten to date.

Cotton Mill is also his only entry for the race
 
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Tanlic said:
You don't go from hacking to nothing like he did at Sandown without something being amiss.
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There was something amiss, and I hear he has had a breathing operation since. That might be the reason but I got the impression there was something else too. Henderson was certainly very confident that he would reverse the form should they meet again.

I also don't think they are afraid of committing him to either race. He has the qualities for both which is the problem.

I do agree that it is a little strange that a novice hurdler has become the talking horse of the Festival. He will need to win and win well to live up to the 'hype'! ;)
 
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Gutted to see Fingal Bay ruled out.

Simonsig might be a world beater, but his jumping doesn't convince me and he has yet to run off a true gallop in his life. Not for me.
 
Not for me either. I said a few days ago that he will have his arse handed to him on a plate in whatever race he runs in, and I am going to stick by that.

Even if he wins, I will claim afterwards that it was a weak race. That's how against him I am.
 
Grey said:
How helpful:

Quote:
Owner Graham Wylie insists no decision has been made on which race exciting novice Boston Bob will contest at the Cheltenham Festival.
The seven-year-old is unbeaten in three starts since joining Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins and heads the betting for the three-mile Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle as well as being a prominent contender for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle.
"I'm going to leave it up to Willie," said Wylie.
"Two weeks ago he was leaning towards running in the Neptune, a week ago he was leaning towards the Albert Bartlett and now Fingal Bay is out of the Neptune so Willie is thinking about that again.
"I would imagine in around 10 days he'll make a decision one way or another."

Right enough I would imagine myself he won't run in both races.
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Meanwhile in the Simonsig camp:

"Ronnie was flicking from the Supreme Novices' to the Neptune Investment and at two in the morning I am going two miles and at four I am going two and a half. It is nothing to do with the opposition it is simply what is his trip. It is hard to get away from the pace and speed he has shown as he is a hugely talented horse. He is very, very well and worked great on Tuesday. He had to sit in behind two horses at Kelso as he has that speed to go past anything and would win on the Flat. You can't believe he won't stay though as he won a point-to-point and his bumper was over 2m2f. He just has so much speed for a horse that does stay".

What Nicky and Ronnie were doing at two and four in the morning is anyone's guess.:confused:
 
Zenyatta said:
There was something amiss, and I hear he has had a breathing operation since. That might be the reason but I got the impression there was something else too. Henderson was certainly very confident that he would reverse the form should they meet again.

I also don't think they are afraid of committing him to either race. He has the qualities for both which is the problem.

I do agree that it is a little strange that a novice hurdler has become the talking horse of the Festival. He will need to win and win well to live up to the 'hype'! ;)
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If it was his beathing it certainly never appeared to affect him until very near the end of the Sandown race. Only Barry Geharty would know for sure when the first signs were but assuming it was when the pressure was applied then his jaunt round Kelso won't have told them too much as he never came under any real pressure in that race.

These operations can be a huge plus but sometimes when you think all is well you run them, they come under pressure and the same thing happens again.

Mad Max was a classice example of that I think he came under the knife 4 times while with Nicky and still had problems.

As I say could be a huge plus but could also be something else for his backers to worry about.
 
chroniclandlord said:
A real pity about Fingal Bay.
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Yep and Grandouet, Spirit Son, Last Installment etc. Never a year goes by when a few of the good 'uns drop out and I don't want to sound negative but we still have 2 weeks to go. When Michael Dickingson said "it's a tough enough job getting them fit and ready to run let alone getting them to win a race" no one said truer words.
 
Despite having a number of entries for the Neptune Simonsig has by far the best chance whereas he's got other horses in the Supreme with chances (Tetlami/Darlan). I say this as someone who has backed Simonsig for the Supreme. Personally I think it's the right race for him but is it the right race for Nicky?
 
If it's a case of Nicky Henderson Supreme or Barry Geharty Nuptune which was certainly the case a few weks ago, if you were Simon Munir who would you listen to?
 
If the trainer has fully listened to the jockey's opinion but has arrived at a different conclusion, then I as an owner would feel obliged to go with the trainer.
 
Trainer for me. He see's the horse work day in day out. (I also have him at 33s for the Supreme tho!)
 
I don't think you can say one over the other.

The trainer obviously has the day to day knowledge of the horse, but it is the jockey who feels how they travel in a race, how they jump at the pace and so on. The information they can provide is complementary to the other rather than substitutable. Therefore, it has to be an agreement between the parties, taking into consideration all the relevant opinions.

I have been an advocate of the Supreme since long before Christmas but have changed my mind in the past week or so. I now think the Neptune is the right race for him. The Supreme might not be the strongest renewal ever but it does look competitive and there could be 10+ in with a chance coming down the hill. I can't see that happening in the Neptune which will give the horse more time, and make the outcome less reliant on a 'lucky break' at the right time etc.
 
Tetlami looks Henderson's best bet for the Supreme anyway.

I'm with Bar in that I think the horse is soft (though very talented).
 
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