Novice Hurdlers 2011-2012

Any clueless bookie who fancies doing a few quid in could price up a "Which Race Will Simonsig Contest?" market for Cheltenham.
 
Zenyatta said:
Assuming you are correct Steve, what is the 'opportunity' in your view?
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Well I suppose those who have backed Simonsig for the Supreme should back him for the Neptune before the inevitable is announced and FB is declared a non-runner, when Simonsig's price would presumably contract further, for example.

As I've backed him for any race I'll be sitting on my hands for now.

There will be other opportunities depending on who you fancy.
 
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I have backed him for both at 14/1 so should be in a good position wherever he goes. I stand to win more for the Neptune and am increasingly thinking that is the right race for him, whereas I was previously very much in the Supreme camp.

I doubt his price will shorten too much because both he and Boston Bob are now priced up as if Fingal Bay is a non-runner already. For example, Ladbrokes quote Simonsig at just 3/1 (What on earth do they know?!) and others are 7/2 already.
 
Zenyatta said:
I have backed him for both at 14/1 so should be in a good position wherever he goes. I stand to win more for the Neptune and am increasingly thinking that is the right race for him, whereas I was previously very much in the Supreme camp.

I doubt his price will shorten too much because both he and Boston Bob are now priced up as if Fingal Bay is a non-runner already. For example, Ladbrokes quote Simonsig at just 3/1 (What on earth do they know?!) and others are 7/2 already.
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...if BB avoids Simonsig the latter could go very short without FB.
 
SteveM said:
...if BB avoids Simonsig the latter could go very short without FB.
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He could indeed, especially given that he is as short as 3/1 with Ladbrokes now. However, what Mullins has in mind for Boston Bob is anyone's guess. I believe he said himself that he would favour the Neptune after his last win, but since then Davy Russell said with some certainty at an Irish Preview Evening that Boston Bob was going to the Potato Race. I doubt that we will know until very late on and I suppose a lot will depend on how Mullins shuffles his pack. For example, how much faith he retains in Sous Les Cieux . . .

If neither Fingal Bay (as seems likely) or Boston Bob (as seems possible) make the Neptune then you must think Simonsig will be a short priced favourite, unless he himself heads to the Supreme that is, in which case the Neptune goes from being the best looking novice hurdle to the worst in the history of the Festival!

At the moment there is too much speculation so I am inclined to sit on what I have got which I am very happy with. A reassessment may be required once the final field is known. I am hoping that it isn't! :p
 
You look like being okay, having backed Simonsig for both and only you will know if you need to do anything. You could top up your weighting toward the Neptune now, to offset your probable loss on the Supreme.
 
I am already Neptune heavy (twice the stake at the same price) so am fairly happy with my position as things stand. The Geraghty Blog has slightly re-opened the Supreme door so I will sit tight for the time being.
 
Zenyatta said:
If you were 'in the know' on everything then you could make a tidy sum no doubt about it. You'd need to know:

Fingal Bay - In or out?
Simonsig - Supreme or Neptune?
Boston Bob - Neptune or Potato?

With the above three questions answered you would be in a very strong position.
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Indeed. I had Simonsig in both races also before trading out for green. I can back him for whatever race he is declared for and be ahead of the price. Boston Bob running in the Neptune means anyone with a Mount Benbulben position is sitting pretty also.
 
Euronymous said:
Boston Bob running in the Neptune means anyone with a Mount Benbulben position is sitting pretty also.
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Unless of course you tried to back-to-lay in the Neptune only for Gordon Elliott to come out and say that he was going to run in the Potato Race immediately afterwards. :lol:

That is about the one antepost balls up I have suffered this year and probably deserved, seeing as I was just trying to be a clever *******.
 
Boston Bob has been priced up as if he is running in both the Neptune and the Spud, although he is now slightly shorter for the Neptune.
 
I don't see how backing the Simonsig for both races at 14s is a balls up. The other option is waiting for whatever race he's declared for, backing him heavy for that even at 3s and then laying him IR at the sort of short price he will inevitably trade at when he's swinging into the straight still on the bridle.
 
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Sorry Euronymous, I consider my Mount Benbulben trade effort a 'balls up'. In contrast I am delighted with Simonsig at 14/1 in both races. Most definitely not a 'balls up', especially with the way things have turned out.

I'd agree that it is hard not to see him hacking along coming down the hill, especially in the Neptune, trading very short, and then we will find out whether he comes back up it again.
 
From the Exeter Preview night.......

NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NEPTUNE HURDLE
PN: I was discussing running plans for Prospect Wells with Graham Wylie and he told me Boston Bob is likely to run here.
 
Euronymous said:
Boston Bob running in the Neptune means anyone with a Mount Benbulben position is sitting pretty also.
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This has to be the play here, I've also taken a good ante-post position in MB, which looks like money for the taking if they all gravitate to the Neptune.
 
Simonsig out to 22/1 on Betfair for the Supreme. Looks as though he's going for the Neptune.
 
Simon said:
Simonsig out to 22/1 on Betfair for the Supreme. Looks as though he's going for the Neptune.
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Open day at Hendersons today......
Henderson: No decision on Simonsig race; 'hugely talented horse with pace and speed'
 
More like in camp fighting and a difference of opinion.

At the end of the day he's perfectly entitled to wait and see what's likely to turn up then decide
 
Simon said:
Simonsig out to 22/1 on Betfair for the Supreme. Looks as though he's going for the Neptune.
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He's back in again now, to 11.5.

This is from the Sporting Life report on Henderson's media day:

Simonsig

You are all going to say where is Simonsig going and he worked very well on Tuesday morning. I had a long chat with his owner Ronnie Bartlett - Barry Geraghty is coming down to school him on Friday and then work on Saturday so we will try and make a decision which race he goes for at the Festival after that.
Ronnie was flicking from the Supreme Novices' to the Neptune Investment and at two in the morning I am going two miles and at four I am going two and a half. It is nothing to do with the opposition it is simply what is his trip? It is hard to get away from the pace and speed he has shown as he is a hugely talented horse. He is very, very well and worked great on Tuesday. He had to sit in behind two horses at Kelso as he has that speed to go past anything and would win on the Flat. You can't believe he won't stay though as he won a point-to-point and his bumper was over 2m2f. He just has so much speed for a horse that does stay.
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They keep talking about his speed, whether it's NH, Andrew Tinkler or anyone else connected with the stable. They also talk about his ability to stay, but any horse running at Cheltenham, and especially at the Festival, needs to stay further than the trip over which they run. My gut feeling is still that he'll run in the Supreme.
 
It's amazing how a financial interest will blinker a man's view as to which race would best suit a horse. I personally would never be influenced by such a thing!:whistle:
 
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