Poll: Brexit - Two Years After

Stay or Leave

  • Stay

    Votes: 23 60.5%

  • Leave

    Votes: 15 39.5%
  • Total voters
    38
He was firm in his position that he wouldn't support a second referendum until two things happened. The Labour conference late last year adopted a motion in support of a second referendum against the leaderships policy. And then in February Chuka Umunna and his cronies decided to walk because he still refused to change his position. At which point he was forced to change policy to basically save his skin.

So since the 2016 referendum result he had been against a second vote until his Party started crumbling around him and he was forced in to a u-turn.

I don't need to riddle you anything because I prefer dealing in facts rather than riddles Martin. Corbyn is like a cat on a hot tin roof, who has the support of the Unions who keep him in his position, but only has nominal support from his own MP's. His own Deputy Leader is almost openly campaigning against him. He cuts a pretty isolated figure in his own Party.

And none of this distraction answers my original post. What is the motivation for Corbyn to call for a vote of no confidence to force and election when he KNOWS a Parliament won't be formed and all an Election will do is completely cripple the Country?
 
But it is not that simple or clear, Sim.

The chairman of The Labour Party has instructed him that he must NOT hold another vote. It's the equivalent of the 1922 Committee telling the Conservative Prime Minister to wear a new outfit.

It's a case of do as I say, not necessarily what I do. :)
 
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Marble said:
But it is not that simple or clear, Sim. The chairman of The Labour Party has instructed him that he must hold another vote. It's the equivalent of the 1922 Committee telling the Conservative Prime Minister to wear a new outfit
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Well there's another good reason not to vote for him then!
 
Not if he disobeys Lavery's orders after three years of a political, backstabbing, bloodbath within The Labour Party and we end up staying in the European Union afterall hahahahahh
 
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There's nothing wrong with editing when you are posting fast.

We've got Journalists on 70K a year that take all day to write 500 words on a load of bullshit.

Pay your respects. :)
 
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Unless you try to make out you didn't...

Anyway, you're reminding me a lot of a mate who had some issues, shall we say, at the moment. Take it easy.
 
I actually think I've won the arguments.

Issues or no issues. :)

Bi-Polar and proud. It's part of my appeal.
 
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Maruco said:
Explain how Corbyn is going to give you a referendum if he can't get into power ffs.
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One of the many unknown factors that we might see yet, concerns how half a dozen Tories would react to an axis of Nigel Farage and Prime Minister Boris Johnson taking the UK out of the EU on WTO terms? The likes of Dominic Grieve and Justin Greening are two that come to mind, (or even Jo Johnson!) and there's a few BB's as well. It isn't going to take many to abstain or vote their own government down. I do wonder how influential mad Anna might be yet behind the scenes in the next few months

Is there enough strength in the disaffected Tory ranks to vote down their own government and set Corbyn in a coalition which the SNP and Libs will make conditional on him withdrawing A50?
 
I find myself in a real quandary.

I've been a Labour voter all my life bar one general election when the LDs were closer than Labour to the Tories in the constituency in which I lived - the usual no social services, pot-holed roads that were never fixed, BMW/Audi drivers everywhere with no road manners - so voted tactically for LD, and last week again I voted LD because they were openly Remain.

I also believe the UK is stronger united than divided.

So my quandary is that should Brexit go through I will find myself voting for an independent Scotland, which means voting SNP, a party whose policies I have never embraced. I also have grave misgivings about how any party in the 20th/21st Century can claim to be both socialist and nationalist and not see relatively recent world history staring them in the face.

But they would need to enter a referendum with clear promises and assurances from the EU regarding unopposed membership and conditions and I'm not sure they would get them.

Jeez, this whole country is completely donald-ducked.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I also have grave misgivings about how any party in the 20th/21st Century can claim to be both socialist and nationalist and not see relatively recent world history staring them in the face.
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I'm not sure that Sturgeon et al have made any statements that could later be used as prior evidence that they have any intention of systematically ethnically cleansing Scotland of the English, so the comparison is only nominally valid. I think the Labour party are showing more signs of similarity to the Nazis at present.

But you're right - the whole country is donald ducked.....
 
Maruco said:
There's potentially a bigger problem looming. Can you imagine if we have a General Election in the coming months? The Brexit issue would undoubtedly leave us with a hung Parliament, and with the fundamental polarising issue we're faced with, it would be impossible to form a Government.

Like it or like it not, we need this Conservative Party to finally take us out or keep us in Europe before an election. It doesn't matter what side your on, they must either negotiate a deal, come out without a deal, or take the issue back to the country. They can fall on their swords afterwards. An election must be fought after Brexit/No Brexit is finally decided and delivered, or things will get a whole lot worse than the current fiasco. The County will end up stuck in limbo and paralysed.
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Well at least you pulled up short of using David Cameron's strap-line of "coalition of chaos" but right now I wouldn't be convinced that a coalition of broadly aligned parties would be any less chaotic than the current mess. In fact I think it would probably more consensual and stable

Another thing that is undeniably staring us in the face is that the Conservatives will not act in the best interests of the country. Ever since this referendum first reared its head as a campaign issue in 2014 and Cameron adopted it as policy, it's been apparent that at every turn the Conservatives are prioritising what's best for their party Indeed, the whole genesis of this mess is the Conservatives asking the country to referee their own internal management which Cameron was losing control of (even John Major never risked this). When he saw some electoral advantage for including it in a manifesto he prioritised the party's fortunes again, and duly slipped it in (Ed Miliband - who must be going down as one of the greatest under-rated politicians of this century) prophetically warned of the exact dangers that have ultimately come to pass. Rather than leap on the bandwagon and seek a short term electoral advantage (as the Liberals tried to do as well) Miliband resisted and expressly stated that it would plunge the country into all sorts of uncertainty and damage. Not the Conservatives though. They prioritised their own party, and are very much the architects of this entire mess

Today we see them prioritising the party again. They're now completely running scared of Nigel Farage who is launching something of a hostile takeover in much the same way as Trump did of the GOP when Priebus refused to call his bluff on an independent run. Rather than confront the Faragists they're supinely rolling over deciding that the party's interest lies with becoming more Brexity/ Nationalist. Ultimately in the long term, the moderates will leave (as they have the GOP) and conservatives will transition to a free market Singaporist party one step removed from fascism (like the GOP have)
 
Warbler said:
One of the many unknown factors that we might see yet, concerns how half a dozen Tories would react to an axis of Nigel Farage and Prime Minister Boris Johnson taking the UK out of the EU on WTO terms? The likes of Dominic Grieve and Justin Greening are two that come to mind, (or even Jo Johnson!) and there's a few BB's as well. It isn't going to take many to abstain or vote their own government down. I do wonder how influential mad Anna might be yet behind the scenes in the next few months

Is there enough strength in the disaffected Tory ranks to vote down their own government and set Corbyn in a coalition which the SNP and Libs will make conditional on him withdrawing A50?
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It's pretty much the same problem in the Labour Party too though. Only today Labour Chair Ian Lavery said Labour should forget about a so-called 'People's Vote', which he claimed was backed by "leftwing intellectuals" who know nothing about the working class. He said any such vote would alienate supporters in traditional Labour heartlands and would be won by Leave again.

His comments came amid reports that Corbyn is planning to throw his weight behind calls for a referendum on the final Brexit deal, as demanded by Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and Labour deputy leader Tom Watson.

John McDonnell has openly said in the last few days that he supports a referendum in all circumstances.

In different ways, Corbyn, Lavery, McDonnell, and Watson seem to be going out of the way to undermine each other, and they are a million miles from singing from the same songsheet.

 
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Maruco said:


It's pretty much the same problem in the Labour Party too though. Only today Labour Chair Ian Lavery said Labour should forget about a so-called 'People's Vote', which he claimed was backed by "leftwing intellectuals" who know nothing about the working class. He said any such vote would alienate supporters in traditional Labour heartlands and would be won by Leave again.

His comments came amid reports that Corbyn is planning to throw his weight behind calls for a referendum on the final Brexit deal, as demanded by Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and Labour deputy leader Tom Watson.

John McDonnell has openly said in the last few days that he supports a referendum in all circumstances.

In different ways, Corbyn, Lavery, McDonnell, and Watson seem to be going out of the way to undermine each other, and they are a million miles from singing from the same songsheet.
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...'The Labour Party have made it perfectly clear.....[if I had a pound for every time I've heard that over the past 3 years....]
 
Thats the point I'm making though Paul. A coalition prevents this.

SNP and Libs simply deliver Labour a take it or leave it offer.

We'll support you in government (assuming you want to form one) but only if you revoke A50. If Labour refuses to agree these terms, then they vote the government down

Over to you Mr Corbyn

If he agrees these terms he has a resolution. If he doesn't then you don't have a coalition of chaos, you have another election

I'm seriously struggling to understand the mentality of these working class communities that rallied against Thatcher in the 80's yet seem to be embracing her horcrux in Nigel Falange. Let's be honest, how many of them could point to a single EU directive that they find themselves in disagreement with? How many of them could name their MEP? How many of them could name three European leaders? How has 'Europe' gone from ranking somewhere between 8th and 10th as a political consideration in an electoral equation, to the hot button issue of the day. These people and these communities weren't on an anti Eu ticket before David Cameron opened Pandora's box. They were completely disengaged. Hell, only about a quarter of them even bothered turning out for Euro elections

This is the Americanisation of the process again where manipulative puppeteers have succeeded in introducing hot button false enemies to rail against. In America of course the GOP are more effective as they manage corral around non issues that don't cost any money and have little consequence, like defending gun rights

Ultimately this whole resolves to David Cameron, but we're now in situation where it'll need confronting to put it right. The Conservatives are incapable of that. They're frightened. They're instinct is to run into the arms of Nigel Farage to protect themselves They're governed by their narrow party interest, and that's what will determine what they do. Labour should bite the bullet and oppose (something they should have done 18 months ago). I rather suspect the only that's really preventing Corbyn from doing so is European state aid rules which would stymie his nationalisation model of economic development. If it weren't for that, I suspect Labour would have adopted this position by now

If it means Mansfield (which is a conservative seat at the moment anyway) voting for a Brexit candidate in a one off election, then so be it. I doubt Brexit could win a general election and when they have their other policies exposed like trying to abolish the minimum wage, privatisation of the NHS, the removal of environmental safeguards and consumer protection legislation

All we're seeing is the sort tribal buy-in that we see in Trump supporters. People voting against their own economic interests because it's now their team
 
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Working class communities being won over by libertarians funded by big business and more disaster capitalism we don't want more we want less,of course a lot on the brexit train know this that's the whole point of it,nothing to do with democracy although the libertarians like clare fox and others twist it to suit their own agenda and their corporate friends even persuading people they are the voices of free speech for all classes...ffs how can people be so dumb.Try explaining things to someone who lives by farages soundbites,i did it with my brother he sat there shook his head and starting repeating the same old farage propaganda,they aren't going to listen i'm afraid i said it ages ago its going to be right verus left with no middle ground,it's been obvious for 12 months.
 
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I did say this once already, but historically the South East is the key area you need to win elections.

The North is an area of great political history, but in terms of winning elections, the South East is more important.
 
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I agree with some of what your saying Alun, but don't agree with the likely outcome. Part of the key is in this statement you made:

'Labour should bite the bullet and oppose (something they should have done 18 months ago). I rather suspect the only that's really preventing Corbyn from doing so is European state aid rules which would stymie his nationalisation model of economic development. If it weren't for that, I suspect Labour would have adopted this position by now.'

Corbyn's disjointed approach to Brexit has become a fundamental problem for him. He's made himself almost as unelectable as Teresa May did. Also Corbyn's statement that Nationalisation will be at the heart of Labour Policy is badly misjudged. He's given all of the other Parties an easy target to run fear campaigns against Labour, and almost snookered himself with two opposing policies at the same time.

Frankly Labour's best chance of winning an Election, or forming a workable Coalition is to ditch Corbyn. The majority British public don't like him and mistrust him. He's become unelectable. The problem the Labour Party has though is he has his own Party by the balls. There's little doubt he would already have been challenged for the leadership himself if he hadn't already cleverly manipulated the rules, and didn't have the support of the Unions. This is a golden opportunity for Labour to take power, and with someone like Watson they almost certainly would. In fact I'd go as far as saying they'd probably get two or three terms. But Labour's problem, as it has been so many times in the past, is itself, not what's happening elsewhere. I find it unfathomable that Labour can't see what is a simple and clear path to winning an election. Ditch Corbyn, be clear on Brexit, and ditch the more unpalatable policies. If they do those three things gaining power would be a cakewalk.

If there were an election shortly after a new Conservative leader is chosen I suspect the Conservatives would get more votes than Labour. But neither Party would get enough votes to have any kind of workable mandate in any coalition they form. We know what the SNP would want, and Vince Cable's demands would likely be a step too far for both Parties. In fact there's a real risk that Cable would be the one forming a Coalition. For the first time in my life I made a protest vote in the European elections, and if there were an Election now or in the near future I suspect I'd do the same. Maybe I'm not typical in terms of what may happen, but many of the people I speak to say they did the same and would do the same of there were an imminent Election.

I've simplified much of my thinking on this rather than write an essay. There are just too many reasons why neither the Conservatives and Labour will get in or successfully form a Coalition unless something fundamentally changes. I don't think the Conservatives can do enough to change that from their own perspective. Particularly as they are likely to choose a leader from the right of the Party. But I do think Labour can. It would take a change of leadership though to someone who is more centre left.
 
Oh I've got little doubt that someone like Yvette Cooper (especially since Ed Balls has been rehabilitated in the public eye now since he decided to do a dancing show) would win. I also believe Kier Starmer would. I'm of the view incidentally that it needn't have to be a Blairite either. I suspect now that someone who has a leftish perspective but not someone who is the Corbyn wing could also pull it off, ironically (since he lost) Ed Miliband would be the sort of mould for that kind of candidate, but he looks well and truly vindicated today

It won't happen for the reasons you mention though. The composition of the membership (both parties) tends to be extreme as these are these are the politically active. The same thing is happening in America with the GOP. The moderates are leaving the GOP and a new influx of red neck types are replacing them, thus making the party the prisoner of Donald Trump.

I think there are times in opposition where you need to look over the horizon and try and spot what policy will look popular and wise in the future, if it needn't appear popular at the time. The classic example was the Iraq war. I always felt the conservatives missed trick there. Rather than trying to 'out war' Tony Blair they could have made hay by taking something more akin to the German position. Instead when they did get their big set piece debate Tony Blair just read quote after quote back to them and Cameron fell flat on his face. The same is true of Labour's position on Brexit. 63% of Labour's voters, voted to remain, there was a clear case for them rolling the dice. It's difficult to win an election from opposition by being the same, so you have to pick your territory

The likelihood is Labour were going to be pushed into a coalition anyway, the very minimum price that will be extracted from them in return for a confidence and supply agreement would be a commitment to a second referendum. They were going to end up on this agenda anyway, so they might as well go there early allow themselves to build support for it and look judicious rather than opportunistic
 
simmo said:
I'm not sure that Sturgeon et al have made any statements that could later be used as prior evidence that they have any intention of systematically ethnically cleansing Scotland of the English,
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I wasn't really thinking of the English.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wasn't really thinking of the English.
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I think that your perception of their disliking Catholics is all in your head - after all, the majority of their votes in the Independence campaign came from catholics. The hardline Protestants hate them.

I've never seen a single policy or even a single bit of rhetoric that would lead anyone to believe that they are anti-Catholic. Quite the opposite in fact.
 
Warbler said:
Oh I've got little doubt that someone like Yvette Cooper (especially since Ed Balls has been rehabilitated in the public eye now since he decided to do a dancing show) would win. I also believe Kier Starmer would. I'm of the view incidentally that it needn't have to be a Blairite either. I suspect now that someone who has a leftish perspective but not someone who is the Corbyn wing could also pull it off, ironically (since he lost) Ed Miliband would be the sort of mould for that kind of candidate, but he looks well and truly vindicated today

It won't happen for the reasons you mention though. The composition of the membership (both parties) tends to be extreme as these are these are the politically active. The same thing is happening in America with the GOP. The moderates are leaving the GOP and a new influx of red neck types are replacing them, thus making the party the prisoner of Donald Trump.

I think there are times in opposition where you need to look over the horizon and try and spot what policy will look popular and wise in the future, if it needn't appear popular at the time. The classic example was the Iraq war. I always felt the conservatives missed trick there. Rather than trying to 'out war' Tony Blair they could have made hay by taking something more akin to the German position. Instead when they did get their big set piece debate Tony Blair just read quote after quote back to them and Cameron fell flat on his face. The same is true of Labour's position on Brexit. 63% of Labour's voters, voted to remain, there was a clear case for them rolling the dice. It's difficult to win an election from opposition by being the same, so you have to pick your territory

The likelihood is Labour were going to be pushed into a coalition anyway, the very minimum price that will be extracted from them in return for a confidence and supply agreement would be a commitment to a second referendum. They were going to end up on this agenda anyway, so they might as well go there early allow themselves to build support for it and look judicious rather than opportunistic
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I think that's pretty much spot on Alun. I couldn't (didn't!!) have put it better myself.
 
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