Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011
- Thread starter Gamla Stan
- Start date
Exactly. But I am always open to seeing evidence to the contrary...
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
In wouldn't dismiss So You Think, his performances at Royal Ascot, Sandown and Leopardstown are as good as anything this year, and he has had an easier season than Dylan Thomas had when he won it.
A negative though is that he is a very big horse without an instant turn of pace who could find trouble in a very big field.
A negative though is that he is a very big horse without an instant turn of pace who could find trouble in a very big field.
Evidence = …the available facts, circumstances, etc. supporting, or otherwise, a belief, proposition, etc. or indicating whether or not a thing is true or valid. OED
…So the evidence for saying that three-year-olds have an enhanced chance in the Arc is that a majority of three-year-olds have won it over the best part of the past century.
Now consider a situation in which the three-year-olds carried the same weight as the older horses in a real championship race. The 3yo colts at an 8lb relative disadvantage to the current state of affairs and the 3yo fillies an 11lb relative disadvantage. How many three-year-old do you think would win the race under these conditions?
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I'm afraid this is far from evidence. see Suny's post.
Of course it is evidence. I'm not saying it's proof but it is of course it is evidence (see definition).
You seem very eager to jump on suny's point of view (which you appear to agree with) which is his opinion and offers no evidence whatsoever.
Many good three-year-olds tend to have early season targets in fact and are typically over the top by Arc time, whereas many older horses are specifically targeted at the Arc which is why they are able to win the races they do.
You seem very eager to jump on suny's point of view (which you appear to agree with) which is his opinion and offers no evidence whatsoever.
Many good three-year-olds tend to have early season targets in fact and are typically over the top by Arc time, whereas many older horses are specifically targeted at the Arc which is why they are able to win the races they do.
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Harbinger
At the Start
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- Mar 22, 2004
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- 11,282
Its all a bit back-of-a-fag-packet, but I would estimate the difference between the beaten distance of the highest-finishing 3yo in an Arc and the best older horse in an Arc to be about somewhere between half and three quarters of a length based on the last 23 runnings, controlling for fillies & mares allowances and overall competitiveness of each particular group.
I think that's close enough to be covered by the effect of the very best 3yos often being retired once they win the race, but YMMV.
I think that's close enough to be covered by the effect of the very best 3yos often being retired once they win the race, but YMMV.
crazyhorse
At the Start
not sure its been discussed on here, but looks increasingly likely that german 3yo filly danedream will be supplemented into the field. i know its been donkey´s years since a german horse won the arc, but she couldnt have been more impressive last two times, seems to act on any ground and will certainly get the trip. as a 3yo filly she will get the full allowance and I rate her as dangerous to say the least.
what I dont like of Nathaniel is a trainer like Gosden talking about the Champion now, if they focus the arc they will not be talking about ascot.
Also the horse is a nervy type and the atmosphere with a big field at longchamp on arc day will not be ideal either.
Also the horse is a nervy type and the atmosphere with a big field at longchamp on arc day will not be ideal either.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/sep/20/workforce-ryan-moore-arc-triomphe
Skip to the end of this. Arc limit raised to 25. That would be ridiculous, I have to say.
Can't see more than 15 this year though...
Skip to the end of this. Arc limit raised to 25. That would be ridiculous, I have to say.
Can't see more than 15 this year though...
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
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- 4,337
I can see both Suny and Steve's arguments.
I personally believe three year olds have a slight advantage at the weights from July onwards. Training methods have improved significantly since WFA was introduced and some believe three year olds generally are fully developed by July but obviously, some horses have different rates of development.
However, as a well publicised sceptic of the effect of weight on a thoroughbred overall, especially without knowing a individual horse's weight pre-race in Europe, the debate is a bit of a non event for me!
I personally believe three year olds have a slight advantage at the weights from July onwards. Training methods have improved significantly since WFA was introduced and some believe three year olds generally are fully developed by July but obviously, some horses have different rates of development.
However, as a well publicised sceptic of the effect of weight on a thoroughbred overall, especially without knowing a individual horse's weight pre-race in Europe, the debate is a bit of a non event for me!
He had Leger aspirations before the King George, and that's probably as good as he is, imo.
Worth noting that Workforce had a few weeks on the sidelines after that race, and that Ryan Moore returned from his sickbed to ride the horse in a racecourse spin yesterday.
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...if he's as good as a King George winner (i.e. an actual one) he's not all too shabby though. Since they won the Leger anyway and this one is better than his stablemate, how bad can Nathaniel be? Perhaps he won't win the Arc, but he's bound to be there right in the mix. He's never been out of the first two and demands great respect. Could easily be placed... perhaps better.
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Given that she's making good improvement this season, with perhaps more to come, I wouldn't put you off. Haven't backed her myself, but I can see where you're coming from.
24 in the old days - Ardross was drawn 24 of 24 in 1981 and that did for him although he still came fifth - and then thrashed the Arc winner in the Royal Oak three weeks later .
It is (a) dangerous to have such a big field and (b) impossible to win from out there .
...we don't like boasting on here Ardross... it's not enough that you can win Group 1 races and type?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The training methods argument is an interesting one and has me half persuaded (I've added Galikova to my Arc portfolio) but the race seems full of great 3yo's who haven't won the race that easily. Dunno.
Great three-year-olds whose targets were early season. If a 3yo is improving and has been trained for the Arc they almost have to fall down a hole not to win.
EC1
On a break
the key bit is "trained for the Arc"
many great 3yo's have not been specifically trained for the Arc..others have been spoiled by running them at shorter trips and wasting their time..Motivator a good example..questionable if good enough even if specifically trained for Arc thouh i suppose
personally i have always believed that 3yo are favoured by the wfa scale..the clock also backs that up if you do enough comparisons.
a 3yo at the end of its 3yo season has an edge imo re wfa..thats only if the Arc isn't a token race added onto the end of the camapign
WF is a good example of how to ready a horse for the Arc..no dicking about with 10f..just specifically aimed at the race
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