Road to the Champion Hurdle 2023

tiggers1972 said:
I reckon if State Man tries to actually beat Constitution Hill he's a place lay.
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That's also the approach I've been taking to the race, don't really lay anymore, but in looking at the e/w markets I have been kind of allowing for State Man cutting his own throat trying to race with Constitution Hill.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
That's also the approach I've been taking to the race, don't really lay anymore, but in looking at the e/w markets I have been kind of allowing for State Man cutting his own throat trying to race with Constitution Hill.
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Would imagine Willie has enough ammo not to sacrifice his main hope wantonly?
 
I was just posing the question. One thing I've learned in my years gambling is that there's no such thing as a certainty. I'd rate it as unlikely at this stage, but there remains the possibility.
 
reet hard said:
Would imagine Willie has enough ammo not to sacrifice his main hope wantonly?
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Vauban will be his only other runner, if CH goes to the front there is simply nothing in the race that can lay up with him without cutting their own throat. I think you are looking at 6/7 runners max, Vauban @ 11/4 in the without market is looking like my most likely bet.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Vauban will be his only other runner, if CH goes to the front there is simply nothing in the race that can lay up with him without cutting their own throat. I think you are looking at 6/7 runners max, Vauban @ 11/4 in the without market is looking like my most likely bet.
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Flatties will remember when Frankel used to beat Excelebration easily on many occasions, but the one time that Excelebration took him on at Ascot, he got hammered by the biggest margin between the two.

Sorry to carry the flat comparison on, but I get the feeling that CH is like the Frankel of NH at this moment. Many people thought Frankel would get beat at some point. Some horses just don't get beat, and not many of those exist, in fact can anyone name an unbeaten horse like Frankel?.

CH will have to fail to complete to lose, none of us want to see that. Just a watch and enjoy race for me, and I never ever not have a go in this race.

I don't want him to go chasing either, they never last long enough to fulfill what a quality hurdler will do if kept to hurdles. You can send any old johhnie chasing, lets have another hurdler that wins 3 CH's and becomes one of the best of all time. If he kept sound and was as tough as the old hurdlers, he could win 4, the first one to do it. Send all the other ones in the stable chasing, lets have a 4 times CH winner. I can see it now, then NH retires knowing that no one else will ever do it, even the greats of the past didn't do it. CH could be NH's Frankel.
 
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Given the ages of owner and trainer they may want to have a cut over fences with Constitution Hill.
Twenty years ago it may not have been such a concern for them .
The quest for immortality is a disease of the great.
 
Most of us want to see Constutution Hill do the same in the Champion Hurdle as he did in the Supreme so fingers crossed he will.

Even if he hacks up by 20 lengths it will be a crying shame of Nicky keeps him hurdling.

He has mentioned he could go chasing and thinks he will stay much further

I don't think even Nicky with his record of being ultra cautious could live with himself if he didn't have a crack.

Let's not forget he sent Buvi chasing, didn't like what he saw and brought him back to hurdling to win 2 CH's.

He's got to sure give it a go and if he's as good over fences and he appears to be over hurdle go straight for the QMCC and bypass the Arkle.

I hope he goes straight to the QMCC next season and then goes King George and Gold Cup
 
With a sudden change in weather, a rush of blood to the head and with results likely to be very unpredicatble forthe next 5-6 days I decided to put my entire betting bank bar £5.45 pence on Constitution Hill. Where else can you get a 33% interest rate in a week?
 
edgt said:
Given the ages of owner and trainer they may want to have a cut over fences with Constitution Hill.
Twenty years ago it may not have been such a concern for them .
The quest for immortality is a disease of the great.
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The owner is great and dandy but Nicky if he wins the CH with him, will find it very hard not to keep him over hurdles I think

I know what i'd do but Nicky could rightfully say he has turds with more knowledge than I

State Man will win the Champion Hurdle
 
The men in white coats are stading by to take you and AC into custody as you have convinced them by continuously repeating "State Man will win the Champion Hurdle" that you guys have totally lost the plot��
 
Alan King said something a totally agree with. "'There's no point going there just for a social runner"
If they silly owners take heed wwe should have no mre than 6 runners turn up for this.

To take a horse to Cheltenham so they can say they have a runner which is best quoted at 200/1 in the Champion Hurdle to their highfalutin friends is an insult to what Cheltenham is all about.

Thar's my rant for today.
 
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Tanlic said:
Alan King said something a totally agree with. "'There's no point going there just for a social runner"


If the silly owners take heed we should have no more than 6 runners turn up for this.

To take a horse to Cheltenham so they can say they have a runner which is best quoted at 200/1 in the Champion Hurdle to their highfalutin friends is an insult to what Cheltenham is all about.

That's my rant for today.
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If the two Mares run in the later race, and Jason The Militant takes up his more realistic chance in the County, it will leave 9 horses running for 7 prizes. Constitution Hill is 1/3 to win but I bet you can't put a tissue on who will finish in last place. The not-so-silly owners of Not So Sleepy have picked up over £30,000 for two fifth places in the past two runnings!
 
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Simon Rowlands Time guide:

under 3m 43.....GOOD/FIRM.

3m 43.5 to 3m 48.7.....GOOD.

3m 48.8 to 3m 55.9.....GOOD TO SOFT.

3m 56 to 4m 05.3.....SOFT.

over 4m 05.3......HEAVY.

For the equivalent with Arkle, reduce the above by 1.2s
For the equivalent with Champion hdl, reduce the above by 1.2s
For the equivalent, if Constitution Hill wins by 17L, then add 3.5s
 
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