Supreme Novices Hurdle

My festival is going to be defined by the first two races.

I will be laying Cue Card like a man.

And a win for Finian's Rainbow will mean I could guarantee a profitable week before the tape goes up for the Champion Hurdle.

Cue Card has a shit load of negatives against him. The main one being what looks like a very strong field.
 
Bar the Bull said:
My festival is going to be defined by the first two races.

I will be laying Cue Card like a man.

And a win for Finian's Rainbow will mean I could guarantee a profitable week before the tape goes up for the Champion Hurdle.

Cue Card has a shit load of negatives against him. The main one being what looks like a very strong field.
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I need to stop agreeing with you.

I am exactly the same. However, rather than laying Cue Card, is there not more mileage in backing 3 or 4 against him, getting your money back if Cue Card wins?

Finian's is massive for me too. I am considering back Medermit as he is the main danger (or I have been led to believe as much). Finian's is also in a nice double with Master Minded, which if Finian's were to triumph would leave me in a good position to play that race as well.
 
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Medermit looks a good thing as long as he decides to jump the fences. I just think he will have to be bigger than the current 3/1 on offer on the day.
 
I'm breaking records here but could you let me know what you think the Arkle would be priced up as come next Tuesday? I feel (fear) I'm too involved and looking at it blind.
 
My 2 that I am very keen on are Spirit Son and Al Ferof, with either Hidden Universe/Zaidpour (waiting on Gearoid to sway me). The latter two will be each way.
 
Hamm said:
I wouldn't give Day of a Lifetime much chance.

I'm happy to be convinced about Zaidpour. Willie M seemed ridiculiusly upbeat for him.
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In the Future Champions race (where Perfect Smile was around 9L closer to him than in the Royal Bond) he looked to me like a horse who needed fast ground - just comparing his action to Grand Crus suggested this to me. I could be waaaayyy off. As for Mullins, when he said he thought the Zaidpour was his best chance of the week I can only imagine he'd forgotten about Quevega.
 
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"Spirit Son was impressive if wading through heavy ground is your thing" Dave Nevison

:lol:
 
Dave Nevison is a twat.

Anyone remember his absolute best bet of Cheltenham last year, which he had a small fortune on?

It was that slow horse of Nicholls, name eludes me (says it all), in the Gold Cup, in all kinds of markets and bets.
 
links781 said:
Sounds like a plan Gearoid.
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I can see why you're not keen to get out at 5/2 but I think this is a good option. It's hardly sure fire but my advice would be to put up your lay as soon as Betfair creates the on the day market. Click on the 'keep' option and you will be the first money up at the price you choose when the market goes in play.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Cue Card has a shit load of negatives against him. The main one being what looks like a very strong field.
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If that's the main reason, then you're being very brave, Bar....or foolhardy.

There's lots of potential amongst the opposition, but the thing I like about Cue Card is that he has already done it (to a greater than lesser extent) outside of novice company. I was cautious about reading too much into the Bula run, but Bothy's Totesport effort paid a handsome compliment to Menorah, and I'm now inclined to think the Bula was a fairly decent race.

By extrapolation, I need to have CC at about the 155 mark (which, it could be argued, might still be fairly cautious) - a mark he's hit in his third hurdles start - and one which would be good enough to win plenty of runnings of the Supreme. If he runs beyond that level of form, then one of the others will need to be pretty special to lower his colours.

He jumps and travels well, has top-drawer course form, goes on any ground, and has already proven he is capable of a level good enough to win this. There are many more reasons to support him, than there are negatives, and too much is being made of the "Bumper winner/Embryonic staying chaser" and the "X could be anything" angles, for me.

Historically, I'm not usually one for following-in on the Supreme favourite, but Cue Card looks rock-solid and I confess to tinges of green envy, when I think of those on at double-figure prices.

There are much better lay propositions over the week, imo - and much as you could make a mint before the Champion Hurdle is run, it's also very early in the week to get tailed-off too.

Best of luck for next week, either way - a sentiment I express to one and all.
 
Cue Card hasn't beaten a top novice hurdler. Unless you think Dunraven Storm is a top novice hurdler.

This Cue Card hurdle hype is all centred around the form of one race.

Dodgy jockey.
Funny trainer
Not run since December
Good opposition
 
Bar the Bull said:
Cue Card hasn't beaten a top novice hurdler. Unless you think Dunraven Storm is a top novice hurdler.

This Cue Card hurdle hype is all centred around the form of one race.

Dodgy jockey.
Funny trainer
Not run since December
Good opposition
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He's not gone bye IMO - I will be opposing him but not laying him - to make it worth your while you have to invest too much at 9/4 to get the heart racing - I dont like the connections either - that Bula run is my only concern - that could turn out to be decent form.
 
I have to say I rate Menorah as a top class horse, but I cannot take the International form literally, the minute CC came off the bridle he was beaten. I remember thinking it was a super run from such a young horse in top class company. I have since revised my opinion since then, if CC comes off the bridle I just cannot see him digging in and grinding out a victory. I think he can be taken on, with what I am not too sure, I do like Sprinter Sacre, I thought he looked really good Ascot, really good attitude.
 
Last 5 seasons at Cheltenham

The Champ
Cheltenham 29-266 11% -98.32

Ruby Ruby Ruby
Cheltenham 54-235 23% +6.00

The Wizzard
Cheltenham 10-73 14% +49.12
 
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