The 2015 2-y-o thread.

Another blank day for the FSS yesterday.


Today there are 3 2-y-o races - Dundalk (2), and Wolverhampton (1) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Dundalk
5.35 Zoffany Dilly Daydream 10/1

Wolverhampton
8.15 Poet's Voice Four Poets 28/1


Yesterday the 10/11f Canford Belle failed by a neck. She received a bump during the race that proved costly in the end. Nevertheless, she was gaining at the end and should be kept on the radar in adequate races and a further step up in distance may be helpful, too.

Today the quiet time continues, I don't think either of the 2 FSS runners will have a say in their races.

This afternoon I'll post the preview listing for the weekend.


Enjoy!
 
BennyB said:
Couple of favourites beaten from CC in recent days. My Zoffany bet is staying alive, just.
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For the time being no reason for you to worry about, today and the forthcoming weekend should rather be in your favour than against.

Until Sunday there is only one Canford Cliffs entered in tomorrow's 6.30 at Wolverhampton - Jassur, a 10/1 shot according to forecast odds.

In contrast, Zoffany has a great chance with Waterloo Bridge, the 15/8 favourite with Ryan Moore on board for tomorrow's 2.50 at Newmarket. Besides this there are two Zoffany outsiders running today and tomorrow. And for the sole 2-y-o race on Sunday at Tipperary the card is not yet finalised. Currently there are two Zoffany's with an entry, a first time out for D.Weld and another one with a 6th and 2nd place in prior starts.

Roughly five weeks to go, so you're doing fine at the moment.
 
The two in the Beverley 2.00 yesterday never looked like getting involved.

A couple for today.

Dundalk 6.05
LOVE IN THE SUN (7/4) is a newcomer by Kodiac and a half-sister to three black-type performers, including Designs On Rome (RPR 123) who ran second to Dawn Approach in the 2012 National Stakes before going on to have a successful career in Hong Kong, winning a 10f. Group 1 in March of this year.

Wolverhampton 8.15
HOLIDAY HENRY (16/1), who is making his debut, has already been gelded, he is a half-brother to Lord Admiral (RPR 116), a multiple winner over 7-9f., included in those a 7f. Group 3 at Leopardstown.
 
Here's the list of the top5-FSS runners for Saturday and Sunday (the odds are the forecast odds of the Sporting Life racecard by race and thus may not be as accurate as the odds posted in the morning of a raceday):


Saturday - a total of 9 2-y-o races in UK & IRL - Newmarket (4), Redcar (3) and Wolverhampton (2) - runners of top5-FSS are:

Newmarket
1.45 Poet's Voice Vroom 50/1
2.15 Dream Ahead Hillside Dream 20/1, Lilbourne Lad Tears In My Eyes 33/1
2.50 Zoffany Waterloo Bridge 7/4f, Dream Ahead Tigerwolf 33/1

Redcar
1.50 Zoffany Flyboy 8/1
2.25 Poet's Voice Colour Me Happy 3/1
3.00 Dream Ahead Haley Bop 20/1, Lilbourne Lad Handytalk 16/1 & Quick N Quirky 50/1

Wolverhampton
6.30 Canford Cliffs Jassur 8/1


Sunday - a total of 1 2-y-o race in UK & IRL - Tipperary (1) - runners of top5-FSS are:

Tipperary
1.50 Zoffany Dalton Highway 8/1, Poet's Voice Poet's Secret 50/1


A reasonably quiet weekend for the FSS, I do fancy Ryan Moore to steer Waterloo Bridge to victory, from the other FSS runners I don't think we'll see more than the odd winner if so at all.


Enjoy!
 
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No joy yesterday, and with two long-priced ones today will be surprised if today is any better.

Newmarket 2.15
NATURAL BEAUTY (33/1) - a big ask on debut. She is an Oasis dream half-sister to Laaheb (RPR 118) the winner of two Group 3s over 7f.

Newmarket 2.50
ANCIENT ASTRONAUT (16/1) hasn't been seen since dead-heating for first place with Ferryover back in May. He is a half-brother to Tariq (RPR 119) the winner of a Group 2 over 7f. at Goodwood in 2007.
 
While all the attention was on Saturday's first three 2yo races at Newmarket I was quite taken with the victory of Carntop in the 4.05. He overturned an O'Brien hotpot in the shape of Schubert and he did it very comfortably.
Then saw he was owned by the Prince of Wales. Racing Post show him as the breeder but that can't be right. He's by Dansili out of a mare called Milford Sound who just happens to be a Barathea half-sister to Rail Link. He is surely Juddmonte bred and very closely bred to Rail Link who was also by Dansili. May be an interesting prospect for next year.
Must have been a present from Mr Abdullah.
 
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No top5-FSS winners since Friday - the only FSS winner at all was for Roderic O'Connor when landing his 9th win this season.


Today there are 5 2-y-o races - Pontefract (2), and Windsor (3) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Pontefract
2.35 Canford Cliffs Cuppatee 25/1, Dream Ahead Cosmopolitan Girl 9/1

Windsor
2.55 Poet's Voice G K Chesterton 4/1
5.05 Canford Cliffs Dream Of Summer 6/1


The quiet time continues and even Waterloo Bridge could not provide another top5-FSS winner for APOB and Zoffany. He drifted in the market quite heavily and started at 11/4f (coming from 7/4f). I guess the break of 3 1/2 months could have told and that seemed to be an open secret according to the market. Second place for Waterloo Bridge is no disgrace under these circumstances and the H.Palmer trained winner Gifted Master may well be a decent horse, too. Handing out a 4 1/2 lengths thrashing to Waterloo Bridge I did not expect though and even Ryan Moore was no sufficient help to get closer to the winner who made all and cruised to a convincing victory under PJ Smullen.

We'll have to wait and see when the quiet time for the FSS's will be over. The limited number of FSS runners today does not spur high hopes for this.


Enjoy!
 
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Once again no FSS winners at all yesterday.


Today there are 12 2-y-o races - Brighton (4), Catterick (4), Kempton (2), and Leicester (2) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Brighton
2.20 Canford Cliffs Caitie 15/2, Poet's Voice Beatbybeatbybeat 10/3f
2.50 Lilbourne Lad City Of Stars 9/2
3.20 Lilbourne Lad Donttouchthechips 14/1

Kempton
5.40 Lilbourne Lad Totzo 12/1
6.40 Dream Ahead Maer Rocks 20/1

Leicester
2.10 Poet's Voice Dramatic Voice 25/1


Looking at today's and - in advance - at tomorrow's racing at least the number of 2-y-o races is increasing again gradually. Also, the number of FSS runners is increasing again, however, the effect is minimal as yet regarding the top2-FSS (today it's one Canford Cliffs at 15/2, tomorrow there is a runner each for Zoffany and Canford Cliffs plus what will stand their ground at Navan where the racecard is not finalised yet).


Enjoy!
 
A couple of interesting newcomers today.

Leicester 2.10
PEPPARD (9/1) is a Dansili newcomer and a half-sister to Redwood (RPR 118) winner of a Group 3 at Goodwood and a Grade ! in Canada. She is up against a very short-priced favourite and her trainer C. Hills doesn't have the best of records with his first-time-out 2-y-os, so perhaps a place is the best we can expect.

Leicester 2.40
EXIST (7/4) is having her first run, she is a half-sister to Temple Meads, the winner of the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes of 2010. Gosden's f-t-o 2-y-os have a strike rate of 15.2%, a lot better than average.
 
Colin Phillips said:
A couple of interesting newcomers today.

Leicester 2.40
EXIST (7/4) is having her first run, she is a half-sister to Temple Meads, the winner of the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes of 2010. Gosden's f-t-o 2-y-os have a strike rate of 15.2%, a lot better than average.
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Exist shys off the others, 5 non-runners already, she's down to 11/10f now - and further down to evs.
 
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At least one winner for a top5-FSS - Lilbourne Lad's City Of Stars won his race at 9/4 and gave Lilbourne Lad his 17th win of the season to promote him into 3rd place for the 2015 FSS championship by number of wins.


Today there are 10 2-y-o races - Kempton (3), Navan (2), and Nottingham (5) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Kempton
5.20 Canford Cliffs Thee And Me 6/1
6.25 Zoffany Gecko 8/1
6.55 Poet's Voice Himalayan Queen 5/1

Navan
5.40 Poet's Voice Gibson Park 100/1

Nottingham
2.30 Lilbourne Lad Spike 7/1
3.35 Poet's Voice Bathos 11/4

Still rather boring to follow the current FSS winners. Today's runners and their odds could indicate that there may be a win or two today even though there are no hotpots running. The top2-FSS Zoffany and Canford Cliffs continue with very limited number of runners - one each today and one each tomorrow, too.

My tips - and Col's :D - are not going well either. Yesterday, Exist went off at 10/11f and could manage no more than a well beaten 3rd under the Arc winning rider.


Enjoy!
 
Some interesting maidens running today.

Nottingham 1.30
SANAADH (3/1), a well-beaten fifth on debut at Beverley, is a half-brother to Queen Of The Desert (RPR 121) winner of the 2010 Group 2 Diadem Stakes.

Nottingham 3.05
MENGLI KHAN (Evs.) gave a good account of himself when second to Mustajeer on debut at Newmarket. He is a Lope De Vega half-brother to Chriselliam (RPR 114), the winner of the 2013 Fillies Mile at Newmarket before going on to the Breeders Cup and winning the Juvenile Fillies Turf impressively.
ACROSS THE STARS (5/1) a Stoute newcomer who is a Sea The Stars half-brother to Bronze Cannon (RPR 120)winner of the 2009 Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes. Stoute's strike-rate with2-y-os first-time-out is only 8%.
WEST DRIVE (14/1), making his debut for Roger Varian, is another SeaThe Stars colt, this one is a half-brother to Windfast (RPR 116) a very classy 7f. handicapper. Varian's strike rate with f.t.o 2-y-os is even worse at 7.5%.

Navan 4.20
BIRTHPLACE (9/1) is a newcomer who is a full-brother to Astrology who ran third to stable-companion Camelot in the 2012 Derby.
 
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Yesterday FSS Twirling Candy had his second win for the season. The remainder are unchanged - Zoffany 30 and Canford Cliffs 28 wins fighting for the title, Lilbourne Lad on 17 wins leading the chasing pack fighting for 3rd together with Dream Ahead and Poet's Voice on 16 wins each. Roderic O'Connor is the only other FSS about to break the 2-digit barrier with his 9 wins.


Today there are 5 2-y-o races - Ayr (3), and Chelmsford (2) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Ayr
1.40 Lilbourne Lad Mecca's Missus 10/1
2.45 Zoffany Picture Painter 8/1

Chelmsford
6.10 Canford Cliffs Just Fab 9/4f
6.40 Lilbourne Lad Somers Lad 10/1 & Bourne Symphony 20/1

No real change to my recent comments regarding number of FSS runners let alone wins. At least with Just Fab there is a 9/4jf for Canford Cliffs today. A win is no foregone conclusion though as she will face a Nayef filly at 9/4jf and a Pivotal filly at 5/2.


Enjoy!
 
Just the one to have a look at today.

Ayr 2.45

HUNTLAW (7/2) already gelded, is a son of Oasis Dream out of the excellent race filly/mare Attraction, the winner of ten races, five of those being Group 1s; she hasn't done too badly as a broodmare having produced, Fountain Of Youth (RPR 108), winner of a Group 3 at the Curragh, and, Cushion (RPR 108). Mark Johnston, his trainer, has a strike rate of 13.1% with his first-time-out 2-y-os.
 
Did not take a lot of time since yesterday morning's comment - the only FSS winner yesterday was for Roderic O'Connor who made the double digit number of wins.


Today there are 12 2-y-o races - Dundalk (3), Newmarket (4), Wolverhampton (2) and York (3) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Newmarket
1.35 Dream Ahead Adham 33/1
2.05 Zoffany Light Up Our World 14/1
4.15 Dream Ahead Dheyaa 16/1

Wolverhampton
8.10 Lilbourne Lad Nouvelli Dancer 9/2

York
1.45 Canford Cliffs Tidal Wave 4/1, Lilbourne Lad Hyland Heather 33/1
4.25 Canford Cliffs Bluff Crag 14/1, Zoffany Dolphin Vista 15/2

Another not very inspiring day for the FSS, there is a slight chance for the top3-FSS though who have one runner each close enough in the market to warrant respect.

This afternoon I'll post the preview listing for the weekend.


Enjoy!
 
Huntlaw didn't look ready yesterday.

Some nice races today especially the maiden at Newmarket.

Newmarket 4.15
VAUNTING (6/1), making her debut is a full-sister to Bragging, winner of the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes over 9f. at Newmarket earlier this year. Usual wariness over Stoute debutantes.
FOL O'YASMINE (16/1), a newcomer who is a half-sister to Sayif (RPR119) the winner of the 2009 running of the Group 2 Diadem Stakes. Haggas is 14.4% with his first-time-out 2-y-os.
DHEYHAA (33/1), a well-beaten fifth on debut at Salisbury is a Dream Ahead half-sister to Burnt Sugar (RPR 111) and Brown Sugar (RPR 110) both winner at Group 3 level.

York 2.50
AL KIRANA (11/4), who showed some promise on debut at Newmarket is a half-sister to, Shamwari Lodge, the winner of a Listed event over a mile at Goodwood, and a couple of other useful performers.

York 4.25
CARENOT (13/8), second in an ordinary Salisbury maiden on debut, is a half-sister to Dick Whittington, the winner of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last year.
 
Here's the list of the top5-FSS runners for Saturday and Sunday (the odds are the forecast odds of the Sporting Life racecard by race and thus may not be as accurate as the odds posted in the morning of a raceday):


Saturday - a total of 12 2-y-o races in UK & IRL - Chelmsford (3), Limerick (3) Newmarket (4) and York (2) - runners of top5-FSS are:


Chelmsford
6.05 Lilbourne Lad Nutbourne Lad 5/1
7.10 Canford Cliffs Canford Belle 9/2f, Lilbourne Lad Cadland Lad 12/1

Limerick
1.35 Zoffany Princess Zofany 25/1
4.20 Zoffany Zig Zag 11/4 & Bulgadin Lady 16/1, Lilbourne Lad Clear Spirit 20/1

Newmarket
2.00 Lilbourne Lad Forgotten Wish 12/1
4.25 Lilbourne Lad Taskeen 12/1

York
2.50 Dream Ahead Donjuan Triumphant 11/4f
4.00 Zoffany St Dunstan 25/1 & Man Of La Mancha 50/1


Sunday - a total of 5 2-y-o race in UK & IRL - Goodwood (3) and Curragh (2) - runners of top5-FSS are:


Curragh
1.25 Canford Cliffs Gold Chaser 14/1 & Landsman 25/1
2.55 Zoffany Dolce Strega 14/1

Goodwood
2.30 Zoffany Bohemian Origin 33/1
3.05 Poet's Voice Ronnie Baird 8/1
4.15 Dream Ahead Not Touch 9/2


No real certs to look at, plenty of FSS runners though and I'd be surprised if the weekend would not provide the odd winner here and there.


Enjoy!
 
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No joy with yesterday's motley crew.

A couple for today, one hopeful and the other hopeless?

Limerick 2.40
A YEAR TO REMEMBER (6/4), who never really got into the race on his debut at Tipperary, is a half-brother to Green Destiny (RPR 121), winner of an 11f. Group 3 at Newbury as a 4-y-o in 2011. Two newcomers who could run well are Ebadan (14/1) and Tarazani (20/1).

Newmarket 2.35
TIERCEL (20/1) this is a big step up for this colt. After running a very decent third on debut in a Sandown maiden he is asked to take on Group 3 company today. He is a half-brother to Amralah (RPR 115), the winner of last year's Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes before going to race in Oz, where he has won two races, the latest of those, this morning, a 120,000 pounds Group 2 handicap.
 
Yesterday A YEAR TO REMEMBER won at the rather generous odds of 5/2.

Some interesting 2-y-os on show in Ire land today.

Curragh 1.25
BLACK SEA (7/4) showed promise when fourth on debut in a mile maiden at Gowran, he is a Galileo half-brother to Father Christmas (RPR 111) third in a Group 2 over 12f. at Royal Ascot.
MOONLIGHT MAGIC (3/1) is a Cape Cross newcomer and a half-brother to numerous smart performers, including Masterstroke (RPR 114) who was third in the 2012 Arc.
ENCHANTED DAWN (12/1) a War Front newcomer and a full-sister to Sweet Orange (RPR 116) third in a Group 1 in Hong Kong.

Curragh 2.55
BEST IN THE WORLD (6/5), hell of a name to saddle a horse with, was a good second on debut in a Gowran mile maiden. She is a full-sister to Found, second to Golden Horn in the Irish Champion Stakes last month.

Goodwood 4.15
ALGOMETER (9/1), making her debut, is a half-sister to All At Sea (RPR 111) the winner of a Listed race in France earlier this year.
 
So the weekend did provide the 'odd winner here and there' - in fact even a bit better than anticipated. Since Friday there were 5 FSS winners altogether, 3 of them for top5-FSS. Zoffany had wins 31 and 32 for the season with Dolphin Vista (11/2) winning by 3 lengths (beating the 15/8f Carenot) and Bulgadin Lady (14/1) winning by 1 1/4 lengths. The third win for a top5-FSS was for Dream Ahead with Donjuan Triumphant (9/4f) winning by 1 1/4 lengths thus giving Dream Ahead the 17th win of the season to level up with 3rd placed Lilbourne Lad. For the remaining FSS there was one win each for Frozen Power (now on 8 wins for the season) and Elusive Pimpernel (now on 6 wins for the season).


Today there are 6 2-y-o races - Salisburyk (4), and Windsor (2) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Salisbury
2.20 Lilbourne Lad Custom 13/2
2.50 Dream Ahead Blue Moon Rising 9/1, Poet's Voice Calliope 18/1 & Dramatic Voice 40/1


Overall standing for the 2015 FSS champion sees Zoffany on 32 wins - now 4 wins clear of Canford Cliffs on 28, the next group are Dream Ahead and Lilbourne Lad both on 17 wins and Poet's Voice on 16 wins.

The last couple of days could well have brought the deciding advantage for Zoffany with less than 4 weeks to go until the November 7th deadline. Today is another uninspiring day with just 4 runners for the top5-FSS - none for Canford Cliffs and the ones running not really catching the eye as potential winners.


I've already had a brief look at tomorrow's 2-y-o races in the UK and - whilst Zoffany has 3 runners - Canford Cliffs has another blank day. The card for the 2 Irish 2-y-o races at the Curragh is not finalised yet, so this could bring additional runners for Zoffany and/or Canford Cliffs.

Decision who will be the 2015 FSS champion is not quite finalised - however, Zoffany looks to be in a very, very comfortable position now. It can well be anticipated him having at least 1 or 2 more wins in the next 4 weeks and with so few Canford Cliffs runners at the moment it will be difficult for him to catch up when needing 5 or 6 wins to do so.


Enjoy!
 
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Forgot to mention that on the remaining 27 calendar days there is no flat racing in the UK on October 25th, November 1st and November 2nd. Ireland does have flat racing on October 25th whilst on Novemver 1st and 2nd there is none, too.

So, in reality there is only 24 days of 2-y-o races in the UK plus a possible 4 2-y-o races in the calendar for Leopardstown on October 25th.

Considering that up to now Canford Cliffs has no runners today and tomorrow this only leaves him 22 UK days to catch up - possible, unlikely though!

BennyB, you can definitely start relaxing a bit - I think you will be rewarded for not covering yourself when Canford Cliffs overtook Zoffany some few weeks ago!
 
Three of interest to me today.

Salisbury 2.50
SECRET SENSE (11/2) who showed little on debut at Kempton is a Shamardal half-sister to Secret Gesture, second in the 2013 Oaks and the winner of a Group 2 at York in May.

Salisbury 3.20
PEPPARD (22/1), a Dansili newcomer, is a half-sister to Redwoos (RPR 118), a winner on his 2-y-o debut, a winner of the Fielden Stakes on his 3-y-o debut and was second (beaten a head) in a Group 3 on his 4-y-o debut and won the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf later that year.

Windsor 2.00
BRYGHT BOY (20/1) is a newcomer who is half-brother to some decent performers, including Aeolus (RPR 113)the winner of the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes over 6f. at Newcsatle in June. Ed Walker does reasonably well with his first-time-out 2-y-os with a strike rate of 10% and a profit of 20%.
 
Just a little sidestep on the former off-topic regarding Galileo resp. Dubaw to become Champion Sire in Europe by prize money.

Chances for Dubawi were bleak anyway - and once again RaceBets have not realized this last week when they re-opened the market after the Arc and priced up Dubawi at 4/5 and Galileo at 6/4 simply due to the fact of Dubawi briefly overtaking Galileo by just over 220.000 due to New Bay's 3rd place in the Arc. At the time there were plenty of hot chances for Galileo visible only 3 days later by means of Minding, Coolmore, Beacon Rock, Best In The World, Böack Sea.

This was crazy just as much it was crazy before the Arc when they suddenly priced up Dubawi at 5/2. My various bets on Galileo were at odds of about 2/1 at average for Galileo, so besides my little insurance bet on New Bay to win the Arc I then covered myself with Dubawi at odds of 5/2 to get an equal pay-out/profit regardless of which sire wins. And it was a good idea at the time as New Bay was only a neck behind Flintshire and a potential 500.000 € more in prize money.

As per the Arc result though all signals were green once again for Galileo regardless of an interim deficit of 200.000. Last weekend the likes of Minding and the other ones mentioned turned the deficit into a lead for Galileo of round about 170.000 (the RacingPost stats is just under 120.000 today but does not yet reflect the weekend results Saturday/Sunday from Ireland.

After today's 5-days declarations for Champion's day the remote chances for Dubawi more or less evaporated with the defections of Time Test and Bawina. Dubawi's sole representatives look to be Arabian Queen in the F&M Stakes and Gin Hopkins in the Balmoral - both rated at odds of more than 10/1 and Dubawi would really need to have both races won. Even this most likely would not be enough to hold off the Galileo's by means of Found, Tapestry, Gleneagles, good candidates at Doncaster the week later plus the stronger ammunition from the Galileo's day in day out.

So, it's not official yet, but I think it's 99% sure Galileo will claim the next European Championship besides the next championship for UK/Ireland.

I just love my rabbits - please continue in offering special bets like these :D

And yes, feel free to re-open the market for this year and quote Galileo at 1/4 as before the Arc, I'd be pleased to take it.
 
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