The 2015 2-y-o thread.

With Bell having got off the mark, what I think (from what you are shown) is currently his 2nd or 3rd best performer on the gallops, Show Legend, goes in the first at Newmarket. Looks a tough race: place opportunity at a long price?
 
2.10 Newcastle Wayward Hoof win 10/1 Burke won with 2 of his last 3 fto 2yos , does better with Colts over fillies so I'll pass over dressed to fur , by Equiano who is having a not bad season with juveniles this year. SDS 2/2 for yard with 2yos

Only 2 places so I think if it doesn't win it will get 3rd lol
 
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Another eight 2-y-o races today - relief in sight for tomorrow going down to five, Col!
 
Thanks, I think!

Here we go then

Yesterday

Carlisle 2.30

Hawatif a very convincing winner and another for Johnston M., made all, quickened, unchallenged.

Salisbury 2.10

Montsarrat a winner for first season sire Poet's Voice and another for the Mark Johnston yard, Hairdryer a disappointing favourite.

Salisbury 3.10

Bit of a messy affair, Twin Sails remaining unbeaten after two starts, Racquet another disappointing favourite for the Hannon yard.

Naas 6.30

Aca Awesome, making her debut, was the surprise winner, tragically she broke a pastern just after the line and had to be put down.

Bath 6.40

Another surprise winner as Calypso Choir (20/1) went six lengths clear inside the final furlong.

Kempton 7.20

A 16/1 winner for FSS Elusive Pimpernel as They Seek Him Here came with a late run to take the lead inside the last, Jayjinski made a pleasing debut, racing prominently and leading into the final furlong.

Kemp 8.20

Dream Island (6/5f.) just held off the rallying Furiant close home.

Today

Newmarket 2.00

Jintshi is a runner for FSS Poet's Voice, he is a half-brother to Red Galileo -RPR 110- second in a Newmarket Listed race over 12f. last September. Dylan is a half-brother to Pivotal Rio, second in an Italian Listed event. Nucky Thompsonis a full-brother to Groovejet -RPR 103- second in last year's Group 2 Park Hill and a half-brother to Slim Shadey -RPR 115- winner of a Grade 2 race at Santa Anita.

Newcastle 2.10

FSS Lilbourne Lad is represented by Quick N Quirky, the winner of an ordinary Thirsk maiden. No strong feelings on the others.

Newcastle 2.45

Interest in two debutants here: Garcia is a half-brother to Il Paparazzi third, one place behind The Grey Gatsby, in the 2013 running of the Acomb Stakes at York and Ediye who is a half-sister to good stayer Havana Beat -RPR 114- third in this year's Yorkshire Cup.

Leopardstown 5.50

Debutante, The Yellow Bus is by FSS Zoffany. Minding, second on debut at this course two weeks ago, is a full-sister to Kissed By Angels -RPR 107- winner of this year's Group 3 1,000 Guineas Trial.

Hamilton 6.40

Interest in two here: Bossipop has had three runs, the latest of those a second in a moderate Ripon maiden, he is a half-brother to Poppy Seed a useful sprint handicapper, and Mr. Chuckles, who is making his debut and is a half-brother to Knavesmire, winner of the 2008 Listed Hilary Needler at Beverley.

Leopardstown 6.50

Fair City, making his debut, is a half-brother to Rosa Di Brenna, second in an Italian Group 1. Vocal Defense, also having his first run, is a half-brother to Grey Danube, the winner of six handicaps at Dundalk.

Newbury 7.00

Three horses that are making their debut hold some interest: Clodianna is a half-sister to Audacia, the winner of a 8f. Listed race at Pontefract, Ormering, a half-sister to Horseradish, the winner of six races over 6-7f. and Pouliche, a half-sister to Enforcer -RPR 121- fourth to Hurricane Run in the 2006 King George at Ascot.

Newbury 7.30

Three FSS with runners, all making their debuts: Dick Turpin (Mayfair Magic), Zoffany (Pinky Promise) and Poet's Voice (Princesses Voice). Heroic Heart, who showed some promise on debut at Doncaster is a half-sister to Anhar -RPR 103- winner of a good handicap over 12f. at Haydock. Wrapped, making her debut, is a full-sister to Rafeej -RPR 110-, who's had a successful career in the desert including winning a Listed event. Two other debutantes who are of some interest are: Flyweight, a half-sister to Cornwallville -RPR 103- winner of a Listed race at Toulouse and Pastoral Star, a half-sister to Demolition, the winner of nine races.
 
that 7.00 race seems to be priced wrong to me..that Unilit form (little swift+magic garden) is not near Zeeoneandonly's level imo..she has run against some smart boys and now faces her own sex..each way bet to nothing imo. No way is there 3 better than her here
 
Given Zoffany's form I can't see why Pinky Promise is as big a price as it is. Dam's other horse pretty poor but the way the Sire is at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if it rocks up.
 
Part time punter said:
Given Zoffany's form I can't see why Pinky Promise is as big a price as it is. Dam's other horse pretty poor but the way the Sire is at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if it rocks up.
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I wouldn't be so sure. In general I obviously agree on what you say about Zoffany and PP's SP. The Hannon form I do not find so convincing as last season and by far the most of his 27 2-y-o wins this season came in the hands of Hughes (8), Levey (5), Dobbs (4), Dettori (2) and Hardie (2)

With Dobbs on a 6/1 for Hannon and Hardie on a 14/1 for Hannon, the Hannon Crowley combination would not catch my eye immediately - not even at 9-1 with Crowley having his second ride for Hannon this season and no winner in the first of them.

As good as the Zoffany's are and with them appreciating the fastish ground at the moment, they won't win evrything.

Don't want to put you off though and wish you - and obviously the Zoffany's in my own interest - the very best of luck.

Hopefully PTP and PP will prove me wrong ;)
 
EC1 said:
that 7.00 race seems to be priced wrong to me..that Unilit form (little swift+magic garden) is not near Zeeoneandonly's level imo..she has run against some smart boys and now faces her own sex..each way bet to nothing imo. No way is there 3 better than her here
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good point, EC1 - I buy into your view.
 
Terrible name for one thing.

Zoffany is interesting in that he's achieved 2 things so far. He has won 3 races at Royal Ascot with his first crop juveniles. Not unique because New Approach did it in 2012, but outstanding all the same. But what is I think unique is that he went to stud and initially stood at €7,500gns. This covering season his fee was €12,500. Never heard of that before. Usually a sire's fee stays the same or drops in his 4th season because people have forgotten them. Without a runner on the track his fee went up and that was because the produce were so good-looking they were getting great prices at auction. What fee next year? Maybe €25,000.
 
I'm finding this too time consuming so I am going to concentrate on the first season sire runners with the occasional other thrown in.

Yesterday

Newmarket 2.00

Jintshi, a son of Poet's Voice, made a nice debut, in the leading bunch until outpaced in the final furlong to finish fifth.

Newcastle 2.10

Lilbourne Lad's Quick N Quirky, a winner on debut, found Gifted Master too good for her but she did finish second.

Leopardstown 5.50

The Yellow Bus, by Zoffany, finished second and though no chance with the winner did well to take second place on her first effort.

Newbury 7.30

Princesses Voice (by Poet's Voice) did OK on debut - prominent until weakening a furlong out. Mayfair Magic (Dick Turpin) finished 9th. weakening one out. Pinky Promise (Zoffany) dwelt at the start and never really recovered.

Today

Doncaster 2.00

Gaelic Angel (by Pour Moi) is making her debut.

Doncaster 2.30

Champagne City, a narrow winner at Beverley last time, is a half-brother to ten individual winners, the best of them I'm So Lucky is the winner of nine races (some over jumps) including the Listed Wolverton Handicap at Royal Ascot.

Curragh 5.25

Siamsaiocht is by Teofilo out of Halla Siamsa this dam is also responsible for Parish Hall -RPR 118- winner of the 2011 running of the Group 1 Dewhurst.

Newmarket 6.20

Aefananah, a runner for Poet's Voice, showed some speed on debut at Lingfield (A.W.). Pour Pavot, a daughter of Pour Moi, was very green on her debut at Leicester and surely will improve on that run. I have to mention White Witch who is having his second run for C. Appleby, he was third on debut at Haydock.

Chester 7.05

FSS Canford Cliffs has three in this: Aneesah who made a promising debut when 7th. at Doncaster, Canny Smile a very promising third in that same Doncaster race and Cuppatee who is becoming rather exposed after three runs.
 
Danoli said:


I wouldn't be so sure. In general I obviously agree on what you say about Zoffany and PP's SP. The Hannon form I do not find so convincing as last season and by far the most of his 27 2-y-o wins this season came in the hands of Hughes (8), Levey (5), Dobbs (4), Dettori (2) and Hardie (2)

With Dobbs on a 6/1 for Hannon and Hardie on a 14/1 for Hannon, the Hannon Crowley combination would not catch my eye immediately - not even at 9-1 with Crowley having his second ride for Hannon this season and no winner in the first of them.

As good as the Zoffany's are and with them appreciating the fastish ground at the moment, they won't win evrything.

Don't want to put you off though and wish you - and obviously the Zoffany's in my own interest - the very best of luck.

Hopefully PTP and PP will prove me wrong ;)
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Hi Danoli, well, you wourked that our better than I did! I'm sure Zoffany will have plenty of winners in the future for you!
 
Yesterday

Curragh 2.55

Siamsaiocht looked like winning approaching the final furlong but she was unable to hold off the comfortable winner Alice Springs. Two encouraging debuts.

Chester 7.05

Aneesah was a winner for first season sire Canford Cliffs.

Today

Newcastle 1.25

Two runners for FSS: Roderic O'Connor has Fidra Bay making her debut and Lilbourne Lad is represented by Wilson's Ruby who has run moderately in his two outings.

Newmarket 1.45

FSS Pour Moi has Et Toi running here. One that might be of interest is Strathearn who is nicely bred being by Halling out of Polska, the dam of Queen Of Polandwho won the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown.

Chester 1.55

Cappy Brown, by Showcasing and a half-brother to a Group 2 winner, has been slowly away in his two runs something he can't afford to do on this course.

Newmarket 2.50

Bournemouth Belle, a winner at Goodwood on her last run, is a daughter of FSS Canford Cliffs.

Curragh 3.00

Final Frontier his having his first run for FSS Dream Ahead, he is a half-brother to Lola Beaux second in a Group 3 at the Curragh last September.

Lingfield 5.45

Adham, who showed plenty of speed on debut, represents FSS Dream Ahead, he is a half-brother to Ponty Acclaim, winner of the Group 3 Cornwallis of 2011.

Curragh 5.50

Two FSS with runners in this: Zoffany (Argentero - winner of 2 from 3, the latest a comfortable win in a Listed race at Naas and Canford Cliffs (Painted Cliffs - a comfortable winner of his second maiden).

Doncaster 7.10

Three FSS represented: Roderic O'Connor (Duncan Of Scotland, rather green before the race when a running-on fourth at Ayr), Poet's Voice (Ronnie Baird, making his debut) and Frozen Power (Rupert Boy, last of nine in the Brocklesby and not seen since). Charlie Appleby has Valco having his second run, he showed some promise on his first attempt when fifth at Haydock.
 
As your Bell watcher Colin I'd have to say that Strathearn has seemed to be clearly outpointed on the gallops. He may just be a lazy worker of course. I'd say he's probably a bit weak at the moment.
 
Think you are probably right, ED and thanks for the input.

Yesterday

Newcastle 1.25

Plagiarism another winner for the M. Johnston 2-y-o factory.

Windsor 1.35

Human Nature made all to win comfortably for Godolphin, Shaka Zulu made a promising debut in third and will soon be winning races.

Newmarket 1.45

An impressive debut by Ibn Malik and one that our clock-watchers liked.

Chester 1.55

Kachy, making his debut, gave his field a start but managed to run on well to take the race inside the final furlong.

Newmarket 2.50

This went to the favourite Katie's Diamond but White Bullet was probably the moral winner, only beaten a neck she insisted on hanging left throughout despite Spencer's best efforts.

Curragh 3.00

Excellent winner for first season sire Dream Ahead with Final Frontier quickening one out and going 4.5 lengths clear.

Lingfield 5.45

Another winner for Dream Ahead with a very professional performance by Adham, fast away, made all and winning comfortably.

Curragh 5.50

Bit of a surprise here as the Canford Cliffs (a FSS) colt Painted Cliffs blew away two very fancied rivals in Rockaway Valley and the English-trained Log Out Island.

Doncaster 7.10

I thought this was going to go the C.Appleby second-time-outer Valko but Platitude, a debutant for Sir M. Stoute, cut him down close home.

Today

Curragh 2.15

Two FSS with runners: Paddy O'prado (From Eden - fourth on debut in what looked a good maiden at Leopardstown) and Zoffany (Zig Zag - making his debut). A debutant of particular interest is Shogun he's a full-brother to this year's Oaks winner Qualify.

Windsor 3.25

Katie Canford is a runner for FSS Canford Cliffs who should be suited to the drop back to five but this looks a tough ask.

Curragh 3.55

Only five FSS represented here: Zoffany (Dilly Daydream - hasn't shown a great deal in two runs), Roderic O'Connor (Great Page - from the Hannon yard and the winner of a Listed event at Naas last time he was over), Canford Cliffs (Most Beautiful - beat Waterloo Bridge in a Navan maiden last time out), Pour Moi (Only Mine - made a decent debut when fourth to Rockaway Valley in a good Curragh maiden) and Gio Ponti (Planchart - second in an ordinary maiden at Cork).
 
Apologies for the vagueness and brevity of this post but the Racing Post site is down at the moment and for all its faults it has got its uses.

Yesterday

Curragh 2.15

Don't know what to make of this race; Shogun (O'Brien/Moore) the short-priced favourite was never put in the race, Lieutenant General (O'Brien/O'Brien very junior) backed late into 5/1 second favourite and running second. The unlucky horse in the race, for me, was Leath Na Hoibre who finished third after being the meat in the sandwich inside the final furlong.

Windsor 3.25

A comfortable win for the favourite Whatdoiwantthatfor.

Curragh 3.55

A winner for first season sire Canford Cliffs with Most Beautiful, 11/8f., running on well close home.

Today

Pontefract 3.00

Young John may be worth an interest, respectable 8th. in the Coventry having previously won at Chester.

Wolverhampton 3.15

FSS Dick Turpin is represented by Lagenda who showed some promise after being slowly away at Leicester on debut. Alakazam who is making his debut for Sir M.Prescott is of interest being by Archipenko out of a winner-producing mare.

Windsor 6.00

Five FSS in this, Canford Cliffs has two, Canford Belle and Justice Lass both making their debuts and Lilbourne Lad has three, Forgotten Wish and Jewellery Quarter both having their first runs and Lil's Joy, who's had four runs, one a decent effort in a York Listed event but was very disappointing when 11/10f. at Catterick last time.

Musselburgh 6.45

I can find nothing of interest in this.

Musselburgh 7.45

A seller with FSS Canford Cliffs represented by Canford Kilbey who has finished midfield in both her maidens at Beverley and Pontefract.
 
Canford Cliffs seems to have woken up or his stock have. Not at half-way through the season and Zoffany is not home and hosed yet.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
Canford Cliffs seems to have woken up or his stock have. Not at half-way through the season and Zoffany is not home and hosed yet.
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Looks this way. On the other hand you will always have patches in a season where from the sires with plenty of runners one will hit a dryish period and another one a hot period wth winners.

Interesting bit is still the overall situation that the total of FSS wins this season is considerably less than last year at the same time. I guess this leaves room for improvement for the sires with plenty of progeny - CC in this case.

The other interesting bit is the strike rate.

Zoffany with 11 wins from 47 runs is on 23.4 %
Canford Cliffs with 8 wins from 44 runs is on 18.2 %
Lilbourne Lad with 5 wins from 52 runs is on 9.6 %

Of the other FSS's there is only one with an interesting strike rate: Dream Ahead with 4 wins from 20 runs is on 20,0 % - Dream Ahead does not fire with enough runners though to become dangerous.

All others are on 10 % or less strikerate and are of no significance (only 2 of them are on 33,3 % strike rate due to their very small number of runs with 1 win from 3 runs).

None of the stallions bar the top 2 has a sufficient strikerate and none had more than 30 runs compared to the 47, 44 and 52 runs from the top 3 - this combined with the very good strike rate particularly from Zoffany makes me think the championship is strongly leaning in Zoffany's direction as Lilbourne Lad was without a lot of success recently. Unfortunately there are no odds available as none of the former bookmakers have re-opened their market (neither RaceBets nor PaddyPower).
 
My feel is that Canford Cliffs and Zoffany were intially positioned differently. If you like, Canford Cliffs was positioned as the 'classier' stallion and this must be reflected in him getting classier males. My proposition would be that these are liable to be later developing mares than Zoffany saw in his first year at stud. If you like , Zoffany got the more commercial mares. My hypothesis is that CC will do better as the year goes on, and that Z had a slight advantage in the early part of the season.
In reality that is just a few months advantage and may be insignicant such that I'm talking complete b*llards but we'll see.
The relative merits of this years FSS cannot be viewed without considering the strength of other sires. Sires like Kodiac, Dark Angel, Zebedee and Showcasing are having such large crops that they are impacting the score-figures of this year's FSS.
 
Early days.

Yesterday

Pontefract 3.00

Age Of Empire always looked in command and won decisively despite Gold Medallion's late run.

Wolverhampton 3.15

The strong favourite Majdool had these "strung out like a line of washing" winning by six lengths.

Windsor 6.00

Belvoir Bay (possibly a black-type horse, so said the cheeky Chappy) was another easy winner on the day.

Musselburgh 6.45

An easy winner again, this time Welford, making it an excellent day for "shortie" supporters.

Musselburgh 7.45

...........and would you believe it, Smart Mover made it a nap hand but not without a struggle, just holding on in a tight photo with the strong-finishing Total Power.

Today

Hamilton 2.15

Two first season sires represented; Frozen Power (Rupert Boy last of nine in the Brocklesby and not seen since) and Dick Turpin (The Knave who is making his debut). The Showcasing colt, St. Georges Cross heads the market he was second on debut in a moderate Nottingham maiden.

Gowran Park 5.50

At the front of the market is True Solitaire an Oasis Dream colt and the half-brother of Carla Bianca who won a Group 3 fillies race at the Curragh last August.

Chepstow 6.10

Tasleet, green and unlucky, ran a race full of promise on his debut at York and this Showcasing colt will be difficult to beat. Mr. Marbin, a son of Raven's Pass is a half-brother to two black-type horses but he is making his debut and his trainer Harry Dunlop's record with 2-y-os first time out is 3 from 107.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
The relative merits of this years FSS cannot be viewed without considering the strength of other sires. Sires like Kodiac, Dark Angel, Zebedee and Showcasing are having such large crops that they are impacting the score-figures of this year's FSS.
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Yes, interesting. Checking the total sires of 2-y-o winners this year we have 285 2-y-o wins from 2363 runs (12.1 % strikerate) of which 39 do come from first season sires with their 303 runs (12.9 % strikerate).

Comparing the overall strikerate the FSS's even have a slight adavantage. However, it seems the elder are simply 'outmassing' the FSS's more and more. Kodiac on it's own has 3 times as many runs as Zoffany. Zoffany is holding well in the overall table simply due to his fantastic strike rate of 23.4 % and does not look bad at all with his 11 wins from 47 runs compared with Kodiac's 18 wins from his 3-times as many 141 runs.

However, the top 3 sires overall by number of runs (Kodiac 18 wins from 141, Zebedee 8 wins from 95 runs and Dark Angel 16 wins from 75 runs) contribute 42 wins from 311 runs and thus are having both more wins and more runs than the total 2015 FSS's with their 39 wins from 303 runs.

Thinking ahead to coming years I would assume that it will be increasingly difficult for FSS's to make a stand of their own to be 'felt' as successful newcomers - I guess last year the Zebedee's and the Showcasing's achieved this and this year it looks that Zoffany and Canford Cliffs play this role. For others their best chance of being perceived as successful will be to provide the odd good or even very good if not outstanding horse in their progeny.

Overall I'm still a bit disappointed with this year's FSS achievements so far - even considering Col's 'early days'.

They are sitting on 39 wins as per today. Last year the FSS's amassed a total of 259 wins by end of the season. There is no way that the FSS's this year will contribute the remaining 220 wins in the remaining 4 months of the season until November 7th.

Having said that - you only need to breed and/or own one horse of them to 'enjoy' the season - Zoffany's Illuminate or Canford Cliffs Painted Cliffs would both fit the bill nicely :D
 
I think that's right. Last year there were 4-5 leading sires, this year it looks like 2.

And Colin is right to say 'early days' as it actually took a long time for the first FSS to score last year when Zebedee had a winner at Windsor.

The good thing is a 2yo doesn't know he's by a first season sire.
 
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Eleanora Duse said:
Terrible name for one thing.

Zoffany is interesting in that he's achieved 2 things so far. He has won 3 races at Royal Ascot with his first crop juveniles. Not unique because New Approach did it in 2012, but outstanding all the same. But what is I think unique is that he went to stud and initially stood at €7,500gns. This covering season his fee was €12,500. Never heard of that before. Usually a sire's fee stays the same or drops in his 4th season because people have forgotten them. Without a runner on the track his fee went up and that was because the produce were so good-looking they were getting great prices at auction. What fee next year? Maybe €25,000.
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His raise in his fee got nothing to do to how good his stock sold (which it is debatable just looking at the median figures) In my opinion his initial fee was way too low, hence his large book. Juddmonte marketed Bated Breath the same way and he is standing for a higher fee this year even without having yearlings at the sales before the covering season ends.
 
Danoli said:


Yes, interesting. Checking the total sires of 2-y-o winners this year we have 285 2-y-o wins from 2363 runs (12.1 % strikerate) of which 39 do come from first season sires with their 303 runs (12.9 % strikerate).


Thinking ahead to coming years I would assume that it will be increasingly difficult for FSS's to make a stand of their own to be 'felt' as successful newcomers - I guess last year the Zebedee's and the Showcasing's achieved this and this year it looks that Zoffany and Canford Cliffs play this role. For others their best chance of being perceived as successful will be to provide the odd good or even very good if not outstanding horse in their progeny.

Overall I'm still a bit disappointed with this year's FSS achievements so far - even considering Col's 'early days'.

They are sitting on 39 wins as per today. Last year the FSS's amassed a total of 259 wins by end of the season. There is no way that the FSS's this year will contribute the remaining 220 wins in the remaining 4 months of the season until November 7th.
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I don't think it will be increasingly difficult to make a mark for future FSS.
Showcasing, Zebedee, Kodiac needed to compete with very good juvenile sires like I Spirit, Acclamation, E&E, but those will have a less impact in the future as they get older. Bottom line is, if you are a good stallion, you would do well. The problem with this crop of FSS is that they weren't so exciting to start with, it is a weak year.

Last June, Fast Company was doing great and horses like Paco Boy and Lope de Vega were having very poor numbers. As Col says, it is early days and there is time for horses like Poet's Voice or Pour Moi to sire a couple of really good ones and change perceptions on them. Hard to see anything beating Z or CC as leading sires on winners/wins stats though
 
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