The 2020 Longshot Thread

Can't let Wembley go unbacked in the Dewhurst. Gave them all a start and still finished 2nd in the National Stakes,and we all know this is a racé Aiden takes seriously.
EW @11/1 general.
 
Final longshot (for now :lol:) in the Ces:

Cleonte 40/1 6pl - I kept finding myself having another check at this one so decided some sickness insurance was in order. Has a wee touch of class about him and the De Sousa-Balding-Power partnership is very hot.
 
There are so many long shots today and I've done the same two as DO in the 310y and also takenagro.
I've also done Dalton highway in the ces at 25/1 and a real outsider in Mutadaffeq 125/1 .
 
I've just taken 100/1 Decisive Edge in the Dewhurst. Totally unknown quantity but Meehan is no idiot and Buick rides in the absence of Godolphin runners.
 
Mukha Magic got the highest score on my little system but I'm not hopeful. I've had to back Island Brave because I'm following Heather Mains horses at the moment but, other than the trainer most things are against it. I actually spent some time looking at the race last night but wish, now that it's too late, I studied it properly.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Final longshot in the Ces:

Takarengo 66/1 - stamina not certain but had a fair field strung out like 4-mile chasers in October last year in a 12f race (sft). Only five lengths behind Princess Zoe at Galway (2m1f sft) and just a couple of lengths behind Great White Shark in the same race. Probably shouldn't be anywhere near the price.
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Great run at the price.

Outsider should be pleased too.
 
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viking said:
In the same race I give Pink eyed Pedro an each way chance at 20/1 (4 places with SkyBet)
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Great shout, viking. Smashed the SP too.

I watched Marracudja very carefully. Weighing them up. It will be interesting to see where they go next with him.
 
Thanks fellas

Yes it still paid 16/1 after the R4


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Not quite a Longshit now as it's been backed from 20s into 16s but if KINGS VOW doesnt make me a profit in the irish cesarewitch I'll pack in.
 
Outsider said:
Not quite a Longshit now as it's been backed from 20s into 16s but if KINGS VOW doesnt make me a profit in the irish cesarewitch I'll pack in.
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Same race, I've taken 28/1 to 6 places De Name Escapes Me. That Galway form with Princess Zoe...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Same race, I've taken 28/1 to 6 places De Name Escapes Me. That Galway form with Princess Zoe...
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Mixed feelings. Good third in the end but did by far the best of the hold-up horses and, who knows, with less negative tactics might have won. Then again, maybe he wouldn't have been able to go much faster through the first mile.
 
Copied from the Ante-post thread:

In Saturday's Balmoral Hcap I've gone in early on Graignes 33/1 5pl.

I've no idea if he will run so it's a bit of a leap in the dark but if he does run I'll be surprised if he stays at such long odds.

Last spring he was beaten a nose in the Djebel before being beaten just three lengths behind Persian King in the Poulains. He put a modest run in the Jean Prat behind him when just over three lengths behind Romanised in the Marois. I reckon if he was British his OR would have been around 112 at that point. His next two runs were in the Pin (G3) and Foret (G1), again running both times with credit. His biggest price in any of those runs was 16/1 in the Marois.

He moved to George Baker in February and had wind surgery after one run. I thought he showed promise at Goodwood (behind Space Blues) and Haydock (behind Top Rank) but his mark has come down to 104. Would people fancy Persian King in this race off 111 or Romanised off 112? I reckon they'd be single-figure odds.

Obviously that's cherrypicking his form but isn't that what we usually do to justify fancying something?

If he stays at the same price or goes longer and better place terms open up I can always go in again but right now I'm happy to take a wee punt on him.
 
I know this is aftetiming [sorry] but I've been having lots of my usual mug punter bets on recently; it happens when I have racing radio on. I can't listen to it without throwing pennies at the races. Anyway I was down to £6 in my account and just had 3 pence each way last minute on Born to Sire in the last race because it said he would be more suited by the trip. Got third at 200/1. I really needed that £1.53 ! So chuffed....
 
I've gone in again on the Balmoral, this time with Raakib Alhawa 66/1, 6pl.

He comes here on the back of a couple of modest runs for which he’s been dropped 7lbs. He had gone off at just 6/1 for the G1 Futurity as a 2yo and this is his first run in a handicap. It’s also his first run since being gelded back in July. It’s possible the November Handicap is the real target but I’m happy to take 66/1 here.

If he's still the same price to more places on Saturday I might go in again.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Copied from the Ante-post thread:

In Saturday's Balmoral Hcap I've gone in early on Graignes 33/1 5pl.
...

If he stays at the same price or goes longer and better place terms open up I can always go in again but right now I'm happy to take a wee punt on him.
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Graignes has gone blue through the day and I was just going to let it ride but a couple (Betfair & PP, same firm) have just pushed him back out to 33/1 so I've taken another bite. Nicola Currie booked. The shortening in odds is't dramatic (generally 25/1) but he's gone from having just one at longer odds earlier in the week to having a good half-dozen longer now.
 
First up today...

Ascot 1.20 Morando 20/1 4pl - I want Strad to win in similar style to his Gold Cup earlier this season and don't believe he had anything more than a training gallop in the Arc. But I do still worry about the ground for him. The second-top on ORs are on 117 but Morando has a historical OR of 117 too and is much longer in the market. He's an autumn horse, acts well in the ground and has winning course form. I have slight doubts about his stamina but the price and the extra place are ample compensation.

(Edit - I've also taken 9/1 ew w/o Strad)
 
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Next up...

Ascot 1.55 Brando 80/1 5pl - This is a mixture of cliff horse and sickness insurance. I've put it up a few times this season in the thread and one of these days it will recoup losses. It would have been second at worst in the July Cup with a clean start and actually has a very good record in this race (last four attempts 3644, bumped when sixth) beaten an average of just over 1½ lengths in those placed efforts. With 5 places on offer I'm keeping him onside.
 
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