The 2022 Longshot Thread

Outsider said:
I'm hoping HEWICK will run with his 7lb claimer on.ive took 33/1 so I hope he runs.
I dont really know whether this is an improving horse or whether or not the hcapper over rated it.
Only had 6 starts and on its first run in this country was 2nd of 4 and got put up and then won at sedgefield over 3m 5f very easily.
Got put up to 150 after that which was a rapid rise.
He carried topweight in the midlands national and was still in with a chance when almost carried out by a loose horse (achilles) and whether or not that ruined his rhythm but he then made a mistake and was pulled up.
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I am so thrilled.just how easy was that.as DO said somewhere that getting it right gives as much satisfaction as making a profit.
 
2000G - Eydon 40/1 (plus the boost) - gave the 107-rated favourite a comfortable 7lbs beating in the Feilden last week coming from the back off a slow pace. If the form can be taken at face value, it makes him a 115 horse. That would put him on a par with anything else bar the favourite. If he's worth a sectional mark-up, even better. He might be more of a 10f-12f type but if he had the pace to run that kind of figure over nine furlongs he might be good enough to be in the mix for the placings and, God forbid, Native Trail might pick up a minor issue that forces him to miss the race. It looks like it might be happening to Inspiral in the fillies' race.

Edit - the sections at the RTV site have him posting the fastest time for each of the last five furlongs, completing those five furlongs in 56.9s. That's pretty decent. Native Trail was 57.54s.

newmarket_20220414_1435 (racing-uk-production.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com)

Usually a closing % of 108.68 would earn a mark-up of a few pounds.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
2000G - Eydon 40/1 (plus the boost) - gave the 107-rated favourite a comfortable 7lbs beating in the Feilden last week coming from the back off a slow pace. If the form can be taken at face value, it makes him a 115 horse. That would put him on a par with anything else bar the favourite. If he's worth a sectional mark-up, even better. He might be more of a 10f-12f type but if he had the pace to run that kind of figure over nine furlongs he might be good enough to be in the mix for the placings and, God forbid, Native Trail might pick up a minor issue that forces him to miss the race. It looks like it might be happening to Inspiral in the fillies' race.
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Clutching At Straws (SCO)
 
Desert Orchid said:
2000G - Eydon 40/1 (plus the boost) - gave the 107-rated favourite a comfortable 7lbs beating in the Feilden last week coming from the back off a slow pace. If the form can be taken at face value, it makes him a 115 horse. That would put him on a par with anything else bar the favourite. If he's worth a sectional mark-up, even better. He might be more of a 10f-12f type but if he had the pace to run that kind of figure over nine furlongs he might be good enough to be in the mix for the placings and, God forbid, Native Trail might pick up a minor issue that forces him to miss the race. It looks like it might be happening to Inspiral in the fillies' race.

Edit - the sections at the RTV site have him posting the fastest time for each of the last five furlongs, completing those five furlongs in 56.9s. That's pretty decent. Native Trail was 57.54s.

newmarket_20220414_1435 (racing-uk-production.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com)

Usually a closing % of 108.68 would earn a mark-up of a few pounds.
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In for a penny...

I've also taken Eydon for the Derby at 33/1. Dosage strongly suggests he'll stay:

EYDON
ped_i.gif
(IRE) b. C, 2019 {2-d} DP = 1-0-9-12-2 (24) DI = 0.30 CD = -0.58

Wouldn't have minded being able to get the double at those prices!
 
Eydon's pedigree is fascinating. His sire has never produced anything but I wonder if putting disappointing stallions together with Frankel mares might become a thing.
 
Connections have basically insisted on running in the Guineas. He's a big raw horse. He has no chance in the dip or at Epsom.
 
He's already dealt with the dip so Newmarket wouldn't be a worry in terms of the track.

I'll worry about Epsom nearer the time.

But I'm genuinely encouraged to hear that he might actually run at Newmarket! That was my main concern; that he'd skip it for the Dante.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He's already dealt with the dip so Newmarket wouldn't be a worry in terms of the track.

I'll worry about Epsom nearer the time.

But I'm genuinely encouraged to hear that he might actually run at Newmarket! That was my main concern; that he'd skip it for the Dante.
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He's big, he's raw and he's not a miler. Meh.
 
Pun 7.05 - The West's Awake 28/1 - best form is on good ground, which I’m anticipating here, so I’m inclined to ignore all his winter form. He's on a winnable rating on that early form.

I know I said 'enough' yesterday but I had already done this card and backed the two shortie favs in a double and I can't not back this one at the price. There wouldn't be an unkicked cat in the village if I let it go and it won.
 
Pun 7.05 - The West's Awake 28/1 - best form is on good ground, which I’m anticipating here, so I’m inclined to ignore all his winter form. He's on a winnable rating on that early form.

I know I said 'enough' yesterday but I had already done this card and backed the two shortie favs in a double and I can't not back this one at the price. There wouldn't be an unkicked cat in the village if I let it go and it won.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, he ran the same mile as Native Trail 1.99s (roughly 12 lengths) faster than the Godolphin hotpot...
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Just a footnote to this comment - being more objective, all the times on the Thursday were considerably faster than on the two previous days of the meeting. I'd still say he has the speed for the race and has as good a chance as anything we've seen in public this season bar the favourite but that raw time comparison shouldn't be taken literally.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just a footnote to this comment - being more objective, all the times on the Thursday were considerably faster than on the two previous days of the meeting. I'd still say he has the speed for the race and has as good a chance as anything we've seen in public this season bar the favourite but that raw time comparison shouldn't be taken literally.
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I'll help. He has ******* no chance.
 
I have done Snugbsborough Hall in that race. He did well to finish mid pack at Aintree given how far back he was at the start. I reckon he can go close here. He's getting on a bit age-wise but this might be one last good pot to be won with him.
 
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Marb said:
I have done Snugbsborough Hall in that race. He did well to finish mid pack at Aintree given how far back he was at the start. I reckon he can go close here. He's getting on a bit age-wise but this might be one last good pot to be won with him.
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Mind you, with the losing run and/or placeitis I've been on, I've been watching videos of the 2019 Arc De Triumph to remind myself of what it's like to back a decent priced winner.

My gosh wasn't Sottsass staying on well in third, I can't believe I didn't back him for the Arc 2020,
 
Cheltenham probably didn't take as much out of The Nice Guy as it did some of the others, but the follow-up record from the Bartlett in this race (17:20) isn't great, and I'll take a small each-way chance on Meet And Greet at 28/1 (Hills). He didn't run at the Festival, is upped markedly in trip today, and has a scrap of bumper form with Blazing Khal (Noble Yeats 3rd in same race) that makes him of some interest to me as an alternative to the jolly.
 
Grasshopper said:
Cheltenham probably didn't take as much out of The Nice Guy as it did some of the others, but the follow-up record from the Bartlett in this race (17:20) isn't great, and I'll take a small each-way chance on Meet And Greet at 28/1 (Hills). He didn't run at the Festival, is upped markedly in trip today, and has a scrap of bumper form with Blazing Khal (Noble Yeats 3rd in same race) that makes him of some interest to me as an alternative to the jolly.
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:thumbsup:

Great run for third, GH. Cheers!

I might even be back in front for the week!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Pun 7.05 - The West's Awake 28/1 - best form is on good ground, which I’m anticipating here, so I’m inclined to ignore all his winter form. He's on a winnable rating on that early form.

I know I said 'enough' yesterday but I had already done this card and backed the two shortie favs in a double and I can't not back this one at the price. There wouldn't be an unkicked cat in the village if I let it go and it won.
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Ran promisingly for a long way but I've just checked the times for the day's races and they're the kind you'd associate with quite soft ground. Have they had rain there? Over-watering? I thought there was no rain forecast for the week?
 
Had a really good look at the Guineas last night in the hope of finding a dark horse that might overturn the favourite but the only glimmer of hope was that Oasis Dream has never sired a Guineas winner (mind you, my notes from years back said ignore Galileo’s in the Guineas: not enough speed). In the end I put some money on Dubawi Legend 16’s,Light Infantry 33’s Check and Challenge 20/1 and Tacaraib Bay 50/1. Reasons amongst others being horses entered mainly at mile races in the future, the word ‘quickened’ in previous races, Hannon trained, cause he can cause a bit of an upset sometimes. Was hoping that the favourite was a late foal but he’s 3 Feb. Luxembourg had the magic word ‘quickened’ in a previous race but I get fed up of O’Brien winning everything. DO’s outsider is as good as any for an EW given that the race looks like turning into a procession.
 
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I had a look at the 2000 as well the other night to try and find a big price one and like Moehat I looked to see what Hannon was running.
I liked Light infantry and check and challenge and although I had read DOs longshot it hadnt registered and I ended up backing EYDON at 25/1.
Looks to have a ew chance and DO getting 40s is a bonus.
 
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