The 2022 Longshot Thread

Wednesday, Goodwood 2.25 - Roman Mist 25/1 (boosted to 28/1, BOG) - drifting a fair bit so no great confidence but should be right in the mix on the pick of her form. It's a poor excuse for a G3 and on ratings is more of a handicap. It's a race I'd planned to leave alone until I saw this price but it is a small bet.
 
From the Glorious Goodwood thread earlier this afternoon:

Desert Orchid said:
Just looking at the opener on Wednesday, it looks like it might be a good betting race if you fancy anything strongly.

Of the top ten (in a field of 13!) on adjusted RPRs, only two are shorter than 10/1 and the favourite isn't among them.
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I've now taken 33/1 (plus a boost) Luminous Light, 4 places - doesn't feature at the top of my figures but is better than the bare form of the last twice, was noted in the official race analysis as likely to improve for moving up in trip (tries 12f for the first time) and has an 11lb pull with 15/2 shot Box To Box for four lengths from their meeting the time before last. The Johnstons will almost certainly have had this meeting in mind for him and he's still in two other handicaps, presumably in case something goes wrong here, and they've a history of running them twice in the week anyway.
 
Goodwood 3.00 - Sir Dancealot 50/1, 4 places, BOG - when I did this race I just focused on the top five or six or ORs/RPRs and checked my own figures for them and hadn't even noticed this old pal in the line-up. He won this race in 2018 and 2019 achieving RPR 118 both times and an OR of 117. The highest OR tomorrow is Pogo's 115 although Sacred's could be expressed as 116 if you add on her allowance. Sir D got an RPR of 110 last time out, a big improvement on anything he's done for a couple of years but he did miss an entire season and has only had two runs for Butler who took over form Elsworth. In effect, you only have to go back five runs to find an RPR of 112 (off OR 114), achieved despite being detached early, becoming unbalanced and being hampered after that. Two runs later - ie three runs ago - he was beaten just over three lengths in this race for which he was only 6/1. It seems Butler might have him sweet again, in which case 50/1 is huge.
 
Have backed Ace Rothstien 100/1 and Arqoob 20/1 in the first at Goodwood if I get chance later I'll add a bit of reasoning. Wouldn't be surprised if both are available at slightly larger odds later in the day tbh.
 
Goodwood 1.50 - I've added three longshots to the two bets on the main Goodwood thread. No harm in having a handful of [perceived] value runners onside, in my opinion.

Danny mentions Arqoob above. He's been on my radar (the horse, not Danny, no offence, bud) since I did the race on Sunday but, like the others, I was waiting to keep an eye for market support or weakness. It's been pretty steady but now more places are on offer so I've taken 20/1 (boosted to 22s), 7 places. I saw him win last time when he landed a bit of a gamble first time up for his new trainer. He did so pretty comfortably and there has to be a chance he's improving for the change of yard. I'm not too bothered about the wide draw as he came from well back last time and can tuck in early here.

Kenzai Warrior 40/1, 7 places is next up. He's co-second-top on my ratings on his AW form over 7f and a mile so the trip is something new. However, he's by a Japan-based sire and they are breeding for stamina and his dosage figures are promising. If he improves for it and isn't inconvenienced by the return to turf he's entitled to plenty of respect.

Last up: Palavecino 50/1, 6 places, BOG - I'd intended to back this one all along and was holding out for 66s but it doesn't look like happening. Another co-second-top on my figures, he often tries to mix it in better company and seems to get pulled from races almost as often as he runs but it looks like his record in handicaps (most recent first) since the start of his 3yo career is 1101112 (Mounty, where are you?) as he's progressed through the ranks. He's third top in the weights so that's an indication that he's up to this class. He's far too big a price.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Goodwood 1.50

Danny mentions Arqoob above. He's been on my radar (the horse, not Danny, no offence, bud) since I did the race on Sunday but, like the others, I was waiting to keep an eye for market support or weakness. It's been pretty steady but now more places are on offer so I've taken 20/1 (boosted to 22s), 7 places. I saw him win last time when he landed a bit of a gamble first time up for his new trainer. He did so pretty comfortably and there has to be a chance he's improving for the change of yard. I'm not too bothered about the wide draw as he came from well back last time and can tuck in early here.
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Think you might have the wrong horse there D.0 he's been with Jarvis a while and he was a 33/1 shocker last time he won. He's caught my eye as the antepost favourite for this was the Haggas trained Protagonist and he last ran in the race that Arqoob won. Protagonist was stopped in his run several times and was the most blatant eye catcher you'll see. However i watched the replay a few times and i wouldn't have been certain the he'd have beat Arqoob with a clear run anyway. The figure for the race is big and watch Arqoob as many times as you like he did it very well indeed. He was 12/1 in the antepost and I'd have taken him against the Haggas horse anyway at the prices since the decs and getting the carpark draw he's drifted to 20's but tbh getting drawn that wide isn't ideal but its probably better than being drawn on the inside if you are a hold up horse at least you are not going to get stuck on the inside in the Goodwood Traffic waiting for the gaps that seldom appear here. If reproducing that Sandown performance then he'll go close just needs a strong pace.

As predicted Ace Rothstein has drifted an is available last time i checked at 150/1 which is madness he's genuinely probably a 25/1 poke and seen as he like to race fairly prominently and is drawn in 1 and see the trip out well it probably gives him a fair chance of making the first 6. Why's he such a big price. Well first run back from Bahrain he ran at Chelmsford and didn't show a great deal. But given that was his first run back from his overseas trip and given that he's 0-5 in on synthetics and 3 wins from 7 runs on turf its fair to say I've forgiven horses a lot more than that in the past. Out in Bahrain he one a small field affair beating Medal winner who won the 68k Kalifha Cup next time out when Ace was reoppsing. Ace didn't do as badly in that as the fifth place finish might appear he got knocked sideways at one point and he also ran on the rail all other runners that stuck to the rail tailed off as the main action unfolded down the centre. Before he went away to Bahrain and after he was gelded he only had 2 turf runs and won both of them over 10f and 11.5f off marks of 75 and 84 with positive race comments. Although lining up here off 92 there is no reason to think that at 4yo and only 7 turf performances that there is not some room for improvement young Fallon booked for his first run for new trainer. 150/1 is an insult purely based on one comeback run on a surface he doesn't like.

I've backed him and put him some forecasts with Arqoob,Lord protector and Moktasaab.

Best of luck.
 
Danny said:
Think you might have the wrong horse there D.0 he's been with Jarvis a while and he was a 33/1 shocker last time he won.
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Cheers, Danny. Sheer laziness on my part. When I checked his form for his last run I saw he'd been racing in the middle east and had presumed it was for a trainer based there. He'd been on my radar for that Sandown race because the handicapper had raised him for those runs out there and I reckoned he was a potential improver. I left him alone but he was 50/1 when they were round the back of the stalls and within a few moments was down to 33s. My recollection is that the RTV post-race commentary mentioned the late money for it.

That's an interesting case for Ace you make. I'll have to follow you in too! (I've also stuck £1w on the exchange at 445/1 although that price suggests today isn't the day.)
 
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Yeah Arqoob landed me a few quid when he won at Leicester last season when well backed from memory from 6s into 5/2 on the day. My gut feeling is he is a progressive horse if he doesn't show it today there'll be another day.
 
Cup - Nate The Great 125/1 - obviously needs to improve and a shocker last time needs forgiving but I like this horse a lot and can see it outrunning those odds, especially if he gets to make his own fractions.
 
Ace bloody 7th when I'd played to 6 places bloody typical missed the start by half a stride also.
 
WHill we’re playing 1st 7 so that covered all of my other bets in the race so thanks for that.
 
No problem Mo glad someone made it pay. And glad he proved that I wasn't completely insane at least. Went 200/1 on the opening show I think...incredible.
 
Thanks Danny. Bet365 paid 7 places and I think initial run through on ITV said 8th. Sole reason backed -your comment. Nice few quid for small stake as main bet was Brilliant Light
 
This next race at Goodwood - Atomic Impact 20/1 - Burke newcomer with Tudhope up. They won the Chesham with a newcomer so why not...

I've also taken 80/1 Boy Browning. I like EJH and Bishop.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, Goodwood 2.25 - Roman Mist 25/1 (boosted to 28/1, BOG) - drifting a fair bit so no great confidence but should be right in the mix on the pick of her form. It's a poor excuse for a G3 and on ratings is more of a handicap. It's a race I'd planned to leave alone until I saw this price but it is a small bet.
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In for a penny...

I've gone in again at 28s to 6 places and 40s (boosted to 45s, BOG) to 4 places. Just small bets.
 
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Golden mile Friday

ORBAAN 33/1 really didnt expect him to get in but he has.took 50s a/p
Hasnt really been showing any form until recently with 2 2nds over 7f and then running well in the international from a bad draw.
Was a bit unlucky in it last year with Jamie on board and is now 13lb lower.
Whether or not it is good enough is open to question but is certainly well hcapped.
SDS rides and is drawn 1 but that could cause a problem as it's usually held up.
 
520g BOWMAN 25/1 this one led all the way at Epsom at 80/1 and I'm hoping he does the same today.if he does then it could get exciting in the last furlong.6 places.
 
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