The 2022 Longshot Thread

Arc - Grand Glory 80/1, 5 places - this is way too long. Won a G1 (Romanet) at Deauville last summer (g/s) and a wide-margin win in a G3 at Longchamp this spring suggested improvement. Taking a keen hold probably compromised her chances in a very strong G1 POW in which she was keeping on late. Given a break, took in the Vermeille (only 4/1), again keeping on, suggesting she might stay the trip properly now. No harm in having a soft-ground mare on your side in this race...
 
This is a true longshot with minimal substance...

But Jaminoz 7.15 New 100-1 bet3 Is the type of 3YO that Goldie can pull out of the hat at Newcastle and get to run well with no prior evidence that it will.

Amy Waugh is definitely not a negative.

On the face of it, other than the Charlton and O'Meara runners, nothing is running that looks particularly worrying. If J has anything up his sleeve, it wouldn't be too hard to show it here.

Actually, I thought the first day for Jami to show something would be in his last race at Hamilton, but there was a blindfold issue. That run can probably be ignored. I've seen other Goldie 3-year-olds run into a place at Newcastle before ( one at 200-1 if memory is correct)


Can't find anything online to back it up, no obvious positive mentions anywhere. So yes, it's super speculative.
 
chaumi said:
This is a true longshot with minimal substance...

But Jaminoz 7.15 New 100-1 bet3 Is the type of 3YO that Goldie can pull out of the hat at Newcastle and get to run well with no prior evidence that it will.

Amy Waugh is definitely not a negative..
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Second 28/1 :thumbsup:

I got just under 8/1 place only (4 place market, 140 win) on the exchange so job done :)
 
That was the way to do it, I think. But for a fair way, the win looked a real possibility. Done by a horse that Amy Waugh had previously ridden to be a head or so second at Newcastle, too.
 
Ascot 3.00 Bengough Stakes, (no, not named after Outsiders brother:) ).

I still can't get my head around why Princess Shabnam is so overlooked in the betting. An improving filly who gets a weight allowance in this. I can only think the openess of the field means a horse like her, who is closely matched on ratings with a few of these, and has a feesible six or seven pounds to find with market leader Rohaan, is why she is so overpriced.

Her performance the last day when beating Gale Force Maya was a really good win and so at these relatively humongous odds of 20/1, I think why not back her each way knowing she will give me a nice run for my money from the front and can hopefully find the necessary improvement she needs to at Ascot tomorrow.

If she doesn't she doesn't but I have seen many worse 20/1shots I can assure everyone of that.
 
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Nice one chaumi.

I think SHELIR 336A is a good price now at 25/1.

Off its highest mark now but this 7f is ideal.low draw could be a negative but will probably try and make all.
 
Posted on 3rd July...

Desert Orchid said:
Happy enough with third place. The return covers today and the Arc bet.

Very surprised to see 20/1 still on offer about Alpinista for the Arc after that, which I took.

Considering:
a) the form of the Prescott stable, and
b) that this was her seasonal reappearance

surely she can only improve tons going forward.
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Just watched the race as I was out all afternoon. Hacking most of the way and kept on gamely. Tactically excellent from Morris but deeply unimpressive in terms of style in the final furlong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Arc - Grand Glory 80/1, 5 places - this is way too long. Won a G1 (Romanet) at Deauville last summer (g/s) and a wide-margin win in a G3 at Longchamp this spring suggested improvement. Taking a keen hold probably compromised her chances in a very strong G1 POW in which she was keeping on late. Given a break, took in the Vermeille (only 4/1), again keeping on, suggesting she might stay the trip properly now. No harm in having a soft-ground mare on your side in this race...
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Just discovered this one got fifth place (66/1) so a right result both from a personal point of view and for the thread.
 
GOLDEN FLAME Cesarewitch 50/1 66s ladbroke.

I cant ever remember backing the winner of this race.Mark Johnson is a trainer I cant get right.
Hes took out Themaxiam and atm this is his only runner.
At ascot over 2.m4 f he led for 2m 2f fair enough they hadnt really started racing properly and then went to Ireland for their cesarewitch
So maybe it's not good enough but a pound ew wont break me.
If it leads like normal then I should have an interest for at least 2m and it could get exciting ,well maybe.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cesarewitch - Withhold 40/1, 5 places - see Ces thread for rationale.
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I'm taking some encouragement from the fact that Probert is jocked up for the ride when Balding has two entries. To offset that encouragement a wee bit, Buick has a very good record for the Charltons but he's been nabbed for Ahorsewithnoname (6/1) for Hendo.
 
Wise Glory 5.15 Kem 66-1 Bet365

Been drifting all day but don't think you should necessarily take too much notice of that with the Grace Harris stable. Musaytir a couple of days ago was run out of 3rd by a few inches at 125-1 (the term 'mildly gutted' springs to mind). Connie's Rose ran just about OK the same day so possibilities stable might be hitting some form. Soldiers Son wasn't too far off the winner at 33-1 a bit before that.


Back in Feb (after a 70 day odd break) WG ran second in a slightly higher grade over CD against a winner that was on a four-timer.

Bit longer break this time, and that's the worry. Well, not really the break itself, but what was behind it. Got pulled from a race self-cert on 21 Aug (which would have been a shorter break in the region of that Feb one...and actually, it was a fairly valuable Sandown race).

So my thinking is the stable believe WG is up to at least a competitive Class 4, maybe C3. This today is a run-of-the-mill looking C5, although there are some stables represented where you definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a win.

As I say, the worry is over what was really wrong in August, and is WG over it and ready? Or are they teeing up for something else? Maybe back over hurdles.

66-1 4 places seems OK to find out.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Cesarewitch - Withhold 40/1, 5 places - see Ces thread for rationale.
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I've now added Not So Sleepy 40/1, 6 places, BOG. He wasn't beaten too far in the race a couple of years back (behind Great White Shark) off this mark or in last year's Chester Cup off 2lbs higher but he subsequently improved 10lbs over hurdles. I'm not 100% convinced he's going to stay this trip on the Flat but he is the highest rated of the hurdlers in the field and I'm a big fan of Hughie Morrison as a target trainer. I just think that price is all wrong.
 
Newmarket 4.10 Berkshire Rebel 33/1, 5 places, BOG - For me, worth having onside at the best possible terms with extra places (28/1, 6 places) and guarantees. He’s dropped 10lbs since the start of the season. His most recent run was his first since mid-June, having been gelded shortly after disappointing in the KGV. He hadn’t run badly – was going the best 5f out – in the Chester Vase and Balding is not exactly Quixotic in his targeting.
 
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York 2.40 - Young Fire 22/1, 5 places, BOG - been on my radar all season although I haven't backed it since the Golden Mile. Handicapped to win on its best form.
 
Groundbreaker's form since going into handicaps: 4234, average value to winner £34k, horse's mark 90/90/92/99

I wouldn't see that as a negative just because the horse isn't winning; those were hot races.

Typewriter is a filly and they can be a law unto themselves.

BR might just be a dog but Balding is no mug.
 
Groundbreaker was very eye-catching at the Royal meeting, he came out of the Missed the Cut race on a very winnable mark and his trainer decided to go for two Group races he had no chance in - unfortunately he finished close enough to ruin his mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newmarket 4.10 Berkshire Rebel 33/1, 5 places, BOG - For me, worth having onside at the best possible terms with extra places (28/1, 6 places) and guarantees. He’s dropped 10lbs since the start of the season. His most recent run was his first since mid-June, having been gelded shortly after disappointing in the KGV. He hadn’t run badly – was going the best 5f out – in the Chester Vase and Balding is not exactly Quixotic in his targeting.
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I've now added Sheer Rocks (50/1, 5 places, BOG) - it's generally fairly tight on my ratings (as a handicap should be) but I have this one on the same rating as Thundering, currently around 9/1, so I suspect the price is wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.40 - Young Fire 22/1, 5 places, BOG - been on my radar all season although I haven't backed it since the Golden Mile. Handicapped to win on its best form.
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Strange ride. The jockey seemed determined to concede a good early position - the prominent racers were generally still there at the end - and then the horse was shuffled back and could never get back into it. Today probably just wasn't the day but it wasn't fun to watch.
 
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