The 2022 Longshot Thread

Doesn’t a horse have to finish a race for it’s handicap mark to be revised? I thought it was one of the reasons given for persevering with a tired horse that should really be pulled up.
 
moehat said:
Doesn’t a horse have to finish a race for it’s handicap mark to be revised? I thought it was one of the reasons given for persevering with a tired horse that should really be pulled up.
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He will have to win a race to get in the national.142 yesterday.
 
moehat said:
Doesn’t a horse have to finish a race for it’s handicap mark to be revised?
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I don't think so but often the mark won't be revised if the horse exits the race early. I think if it gets so far and then drops out the handicapper will probably lower it a bit.

As Outsider says, it will need to win (or run helluva well in) a (big) race to get up enough to make the cut. Maybe they have an eye on something over the Aintree fences.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think so but often the mark won't be revised if the horse exits the race early. I think if it gets so far and then drops out the handicapper will probably lower it a bit.

As Outsider says, it will need to win (or run helluva well in) a (big) race to get up enough to make the cut. Maybe they have an eye on something over the Aintree fences.
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“ All handicappers use the same guideline. No horse can have its mark increased for anything that happens before the second last obstacle. Once a horse gets to that obstacle it comes down to the handicapper’s judgement whether a rise is appropriate. While this isn’t an ideal solution, a line has to be drawn somewhere to suggest a cut-off point when a race is too far from the finish to suggest a definitive estimate”
 
Outsider said:
He will have to win a race to get in the national.142 yesterday.
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3 horses got in off 142 in this year's National!!!!!


In any case, he'll probably get dropped for his latest run. But it does allow for a campaign going forward of jumping the larger obstacles, not one of protecting his mark.
 
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Last year's National was unusual in respect of the cut off mark. It's usually in the mid-high 140s.

I agree he'll get dropped, probably by at least 3lbs, for the other day so he'll definitely need to go up again. It could be that they have a valuable x-c handicap in mind for him.

It's also possible he's just gone.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's also possible he's just gone.
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He'd be sent to Haslam if he were.

He was severely punished by the handicapper for his win over Tiger Roll in the Cross country and he's never come near it since...Impressive as it looked, still hard to accept especially as Tiger Roll turned 17L defeat into 18L win under the same conditions the next time they met...
 
Capla knight 330 dundalk 50/1 skynet 5 places.
Not the best of draws and is probably better on turf.ran on well I thought over 6f at fairyhouse.new trainer tomorrow.£1 ew.
 
Friday, Newbury 3.40 - Abuffalosoldier 20/1 - a second-season novice taking on largely exposed old plodders. Worth a pop but not my main bet in the race.
 
Wise Glory goes in the 3.50 at Taunton. I'm only mentioning here because he's out to 125-1.

And rightfully, based on last 3 woeful runs.

I know the stable thought (at one point, at least) that they had something to play with. Maybe there were legitimate excuses for the last few, maybe he'll like Taunton.

I would keep stakes low :-)
 
chaumi said:
Wise Glory goes in the 3.50 at Taunton. I'm only mentioning here because he's out to 125-1.

And rightfully, based on last 3 woeful runs.

I know the stable thought (at one point, at least) that they had something to play with. Maybe there were legitimate excuses for the last few, maybe he'll like Taunton.

I would keep stakes low :-)
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I'll let it go now, and promise not to point out the 500-1 next time :-(
 
Don't feel bad, chaumi.

I tipped Sayar each-way on here at 150/1 a couple of years back, in a five-runner Catterick novice chase. One was pulled-up at the 12th, the long-odds-on jolly tipped-up at the 13th, and mine was booked for a very, very, remote third, when the second Fell at the last. Sayar stayed-on dourly to collect the place-money - beaten 72 lengths. :lol:
 
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Euronymous said:
Doesn't Lostintranslation run Saturday?
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Coach rambler is fav and will possibly win but LIT is best fresh and is 19lb better off (with claim) to their running in the ultima and we got 25/1 so it's easy to see why we have backed it,old plodder or not.
 
Saturday, Newbury 1.20 - Jacamar 25/1, 4 pl - on my figures has the same chance and profile as 9/2 shot Killer Kane so is a no-brainer each-way pop.
 
Saturday, Newbury 3.40 - Courtland 20/1, BOG - I don’t think he’d be any more than 5/1 if he hadn’t run down the park on his reappearance as he had looked on a nice curve when previously seen. As a second-season novice, he is entitled to improve a fair bit. The favourite will be hard to beat but, for me, isn't betting material at 6/4.
 
Saturday, Newcastle 3.25 - Whoshotthesheriff 25/1 - second-top on my figures and on a curve so I'm happy to have a wee punt. Not my main bet in the race but 25s is 'way too big in my book.
 
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