The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Now for a wild one...

Derby - Hoo Ya Mal 200/1, 4 places - this is in the same ball-park price as the once-raced no-hoper El Habeeb (the stable are probably happy to land the odds on finishing last) but, on my figures, it should be in the same ball-park price range as Sonny Liston (66s tops, 33s in a place) or even West Wind Blows (33s generally). And I reckon it might improve a fair bit for stepping up to the Derby trip. I'll settle for a fourth-place return.
Click to expand...

Woohoo!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Now for a wild one...

Derby - Hoo Ya Mal 200/1, 4 places - this is in the same ball-park price as the once-raced no-hoper El Habeeb (the stable are probably happy to land the odds on finishing last) but, on my figures, it should be in the same ball-park price range as Sonny Liston (66s tops, 33s in a place) or even West Wind Blows (33s generally). And I reckon it might improve a fair bit for stepping up to the Derby trip. I'll settle for a fourth-place return.
Click to expand...

Very nice D. Well picked.
 
chaumi said:
I'll get this in quick, no time to write up right now ...Roma Bangkok 3.30 Perth Sunday 25-1 Bet3 Prices just gone up (it's 16s with Hills). Could go either way but 25s is fair enough as a start point.
Click to expand...

Well, this turned out to be a little too early. Opened (a realistic) 40-1 with most others, and those have remained stable overnight. Hills have doubled, Bet365 remain the same. It's possible they could all go 66 before we get the race.

The current prices (I believe) are purely based on two of these finishing well in front of RB in a similar Perth race about 3 weeks ago. RB went into that race off a year layoff, I have to assume some sort of injury although it's possible Barnes was thinking he'll let the horse grow up a bit ready for some summer handicaps this year. Appeared to travel well in that comeback till around 3 out and may not be surprising that he wasn't able to sustain it from the 3rd last.

Stable going well enough. My MachoMan ran ok enough a week ago against 2 Irish horses that could well be contesting Class 3 handicaps this summer, Dolly Dancer won yesterday, Oishin ran (I would say) his best race ever yesterday in a race where he had zero chance (shouldn't have been within 80 lengths of the winner), St Arvans won a week ago.


Worries:

Perth? Novice hurdle win was at Sedgefield. But I couldn't see anything wrong with the jumping in the Perth race a few weeks ago.

Ground? There was a bit of soft at Sedgefield. You can see the turf kicking up on the video replay. I've been watching Perth all week in preparation for this. Not aware of any major rain, but think they have been watering. I'm guessing this could put the ground in a similar state to that Sedgefield novice.

The others? Not a bad bunch, but equally no obvious standouts. A number could improve. It certainly won't be a surprise to see a few go well and RB will have to be something to win. 25s would have been enough for me to find out, 40-1 is great news. 66-1 bring it on. 100, sell the house!



That novice win left me feeling he could be up to one or two reasonably competitive handicaps at some point. (I may be slightly biased of course - it was squeaky bum time for me in the last 50 yards of that novice win)....

https://www.racingpost.com/results/57/sedgefield/2021-05-11/782485


If he's ready, then with another year on his back, this might be the only time to get these type of odds again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Now for a wild one...

Derby - Hoo Ya Mal 200/1, 4 places - this is in the same ball-park price as the once-raced no-hoper El Habeeb (the stable are probably happy to land the odds on finishing last) but, on my figures, it should be in the same ball-park price range as Sonny Liston (66s tops, 33s in a place) or even West Wind Blows (33s generally). And I reckon it might improve a fair bit for stepping up to the Derby trip. I'll settle for a fourth-place return.
Click to expand...

Inspired!! What else can you say!
 
Commonwealth Cup - Flotus 50/1 - only has a length to find with Tenebrism (10/1 for this) on Cheveley Park form and started this season rated 112 (Tenebrism 114) and her allowance will put her on the same figure as the top-rated male Perfect Power (9/2f). The Crisfords are serious target trainers (at least Simon is) and I'd be very hopeful they'll have the filly on song for the day. I think the price is miles too long.

(Copying to the Ascot thread.)
 
Queen Anne - Sir Busker 50/1 - I put up SB at long odds for the Lockinge last month and it ran well so I'm surprised it's a big price again against oppo that won't be any tougher on a track that might suit it better.

Obviously I don't expect it to beat the favoutite but I'm of a mind to back it without the favourite on the day and, who knows, maybe the favourite might pick up a setback and be forced to miss the race.

I'm mildly annoyed with myself for chickening out of taking 66/1 this morning before the decs were updated but that's tempered by the fact that it's a much smaller field than I was anticipating so a cut to 33/1 or even shorter might have been possible.

It's SB's only entry for the meeting so I'm very hopeful he will at least turn up.
 
SJP - Bayside Boy 50/1 - this is his only entry for the meeting and he's also in the Eclipse and Sussex Stakes so he's clearly still held in high regard. He wasn't beaten at all far in the Dewhurst and Futurity, denied a clear run both and had Berkshire Shadow, which ran well in the Guineas, well behind him at Newmarket. A poor reappearance in the French Guineas requires forgiving but that was a Longchamp soft-ground race and I can always forgive a modest reappearance. The price is probably an over-reaction to that, for which he was only 11/1 and for which the service of Peslier had been secured.

The each-way double with Sir Busker pays 2600/1 for the win (:lol:) and 120/1 for the place portion (effectively 60/1 since you're writing off the win portion, but that's still a qualifier!!)
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
SJP - Bayside Boy 50/1 - this is his only entry for the meeting and he's also in the Eclipse and Sussex Stakes so he's clearly still held in high regard. He wasn't beaten at all far in the Dewhurst and Futurity, denied a clear run both and had Berkshire Shadow, which ran well in the Guineas, well behind him at Newmarket. A poor reappearance in the French Guineas requires forgiving but that was a Longchamp soft-ground race and I can always forgive a modest reappearance. The price is probably an over-reaction to that, for which he was only 11/1 and for which the service of Peslier had been secured.
Click to expand...

I've had another pop at this race - Mighty Ulysses 20/1 - so far its only entry is in this race although the Britannia entries will be out later this week. Still, Frankie is jocked up for this and it's the stable's only entry. I keep going back to that good Haydock handicap in which he was slightly unlucky (I put up the third, Outgate, as one to take out of the race) and keep finding grounds for jacking up the ratings. I can't help thinking this one is a genuine G1 8-10f horse in the making. On my figures he has the beating of everything bar the favourite and his curve might be steeper.

Then again, my figures might be all wrong :ninja:
 
York 2.35 - Young Fire 25/1 - figures near the very top of my ratings table and Tudhope rides in preference - presumably - to my top-rated. Can't not back it...
 
York 4.40 - Admiral D 40/1 6 places - the trainer has a decent record in this race and his Vintage Clarets is blue across the board but the stable jockey elect, it would seem, rides this one. No money for it yet and there might not be, but the price is too long. The horse has been dropped for a run against older horses which he could never have been expected to win anyway.
 
255 Downpatrick

A DUBLIN JOB 33/1 uninspiring form figures but caught my eye at sometime and I added the note "wait for hcaps".
Tomorrow is its first hcap and steps up from 2m to 2m 5f.also has an entry for monday over 3m.
The market might tell us more as it has a 7lb claimer on and i often wonder when they put a claimer on first time.dont they usually use them after they win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.35 - Young Fire 25/1 - figures near the very top of my ratings table and Tudhope rides in preference - presumably - to my top-rated. Can't not back it...
Click to expand...

I've now also taken 33/1 Animal Instinct (25s to 4 places available) in this race. I have it on the same rating as YF on its AW form and I'm not entirely convinced it needs an artificial surface. Wears a first-time tongue-tie and Buick takes the ride, which can't be a negative.
 
Hexham 1.55 So Be It 40/1. Ran well in his last PTP and Punchestown bumper with enough form lines from those two races that suggest he could run to the level of the two favs, if fit and well? Trainers last two runners not btn far 3rd at 7/2 and 2nd 28/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Commonwealth Cup - Flotus 50/1 - only has a length to find with Tenebrism (10/1 for this) on Cheveley Park form and started this season rated 112 (Tenebrism 114) and her allowance will put her on the same figure as the top-rated male Perfect Power (9/2f). The Crisfords are serious target trainers (at least Simon is) and I'd be very hopeful they'll have the filly on song for the day. I think the price is miles too long.
Click to expand...

I've added Cadamosto 50/1 (boosted to 60s) for this race. It's O'Brien's only runner and surely won't be allowed to go off anywhere near that kind of price, assuming it turns up on the day. (Hard to imagine Coolmore letting a race of this nature go without a representative in it.) The risks are obvious.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now also taken 33/1 Animal Instinct (25s to 4 places available) in this race. I have it on the same rating as YF on its AW form and I'm not entirely convinced it needs an artificial surface. Wears a first-time tongue-tie and Buick takes the ride, which can't be a negative.
Click to expand...

Looked promising for a furlong early in the straight but soon eased off as though there was a problem. This ended up a free bet so no harm done.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 4.40 - Admiral D 40/1 6 places - the trainer has a decent record in this race and his Vintage Clarets is blue across the board but the stable jockey elect, it would seem, rides this one. No money for it yet and there might not be, but the price is too long. The horse has been dropped for a run against older horses which he could never have been expected to win anyway.
Click to expand...

Sixth :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
SJP - Bayside Boy 50/1 - this is his only entry for the meeting and he's also in the Eclipse and Sussex Stakes so he's clearly still held in high regard. He wasn't beaten at all far in the Dewhurst and Futurity, denied a clear run both and had Berkshire Shadow, which ran well in the Guineas, well behind him at Newmarket. A poor reappearance in the French Guineas requires forgiving but that was a Longchamp soft-ground race and I can always forgive a modest reappearance. The price is probably an over-reaction to that, for which he was only 11/1 and for which the service of Peslier had been secured.
Click to expand...

I've now also added Angel Bleu at 40/1 (boosted to 45/1) BOG - I recall a few commentators suggesting he was one to take out of the Greenham, when he was edgy beforehand and Dettori didn't go for everything late on. I'm not sure why he bypassed the Guineas but take Coroebus out of this race and he's top on ORs ahead of 5/1 shot My Prospero and overall is one of a host of third-top-rated runners on RPRs. I haven't done my own figures yet but the price strikes me as too long and Beckett isn't the type to tilt at windmills.
 
Tuesday, Ascot 5.00 - Themaxwecan 40/1 (boosted to almost 45/1) - Has been rated around 103 for chunks of the last two seasons and gets in here off 97, one pound higher than his last winning mark. First-time cheekpieces coincided with a return to form in his previous race to that and he's now blinkered for the first time.
 
Back
Top