The 2022 Longshot Thread

I know this is aftertiming but it was a last minute thing. Went onto WHill to back Pistoletto because I hadn’t backed it yesterday and remembering what I’d said about not reading TRP comments so did so and had a bet on Bright Diamond in the first. Went outside to water the plants and came in to find it had won. So, thanks for that! Interesting that Tom Morley has Blue de Vega and Arecibo in the next. He got a lot of stick about buying Arecibo who wasn’t cheap but he’s had a lot of fun with him. So it’ll be interesting to see how the two horses run. He became my favourite pundit on W Hill because he explained a lot about why he bought certain horses and taught me a bit about maiden races and what to look for.
 
moehat said:
I know this is aftertiming but it was a last minute thing. Went onto WHill to back Pistoletto because I hadn’t backed it yesterday and remembering what I’d said about not reading TRP comments so did so and had a bet on Bright Diamond in the first. Went outside to water the plants and came in to find it had won. So, thanks for that! Interesting that Tom Morley has Blue de Vega and Arecibo in the next. He got a lot of stick about buying Arecibo who wasn’t cheap but he’s had a lot of fun with him. So it’ll be interesting to see how the two horses run. He became my favourite pundit on W Hill because he explained a lot about why he bought certain horses and taught me a bit about maiden races and what to look for.
Click to expand...
Shameful after-timing!!!!!
 
Haydock

3.45 Modular Magic could run well here. He has won twice first time out and has a good record after a break. He has had a good 5-6 weeks off the track since his last run and he was third in this race or one of these type of races at Haydock last year. A very similiar handicap mark here so 20/1 will do for me.

4.45 Another stab in the dark on Asadjumeriah. I just like his win strike rate and the recent gelding operation may have helped him. Fingers crossed.
 
Marb said:
Haydock


4.45 Another stab in the dark on Asadjumeriah. I just like his win strike rate and the recent gelding operation may have helped him. Fingers crossed.
Click to expand...

For your sake, hoping he wins, Marb. There's some evidence he's way better than an average Class 4 handicapper. But the yard looks out of form. I'm half hoping he gets hammered here and then we have yard form/not recovered from the op/needed a little drop in weights to blame, and then he'll p**s up at some point in a later race at a hopefully juicy price. All good plans and all that!!!
 
Yes I've a feeling he will either be beat after a furlong complaining his owner castrated him or run really well with not much in between. :)
 
Nonannyimfine said:
Modular magic finished very well maybe they should step up in trip…or book a different jockey! :)
Click to expand...

Yeah lost about 4 to 5 lengths at the start only beaten about 3 lengths in the end.

In flat racing there's always another day for them.

As my old mate Tiny Clanger would say...'one for another day'.

I have changed channels to watch You Only Live Twice after that.

One of the best Bonds ever this one.
 
Last edited:
4.45 Another stab in the dark on Asadjumeriah. I just like his win strike rate and the recent gelding operation may have helped him. Fingers crossed.[/QUOTE]

I followed you in marb how unlucky to be beat by a 50/1 ffs
 
If I could have selected two longshots funnily enough I would have put up Devils Angel. He was on my radar and has drifted from 16's to 50's.

I can't complain though happy mine placed. Asad probably one for another day aswell.
 
Last edited:
moehat said:
I know this is aftertiming but it was a last minute thing. Went onto WHill to back Pistoletto because I hadn’t backed it yesterday and remembering what I’d said about not reading TRP comments so did so and had a bet on Bright Diamond in the first. Went outside to water the plants and came in to find it had won. So, thanks for that! Interesting that Tom Morley has Blue de Vega and Arecibo in the next. He got a lot of stick about buying Arecibo who wasn’t cheap but he’s had a lot of fun with him. So it’ll be interesting to see how the two horses run. He became my favourite pundit on W Hill because he explained a lot about why he bought certain horses and taught me a bit about maiden races and what to look for.
Click to expand...
No racing for me today as I’m looking after the grandchildren but I’ve just had a quick look at the results and Tom Morley has had a 40/1 winner at Chelmsford. No idea if I would have backed it (probably not) but it’s always worth keeping an eye on his runners.
 
Newbury 3.35 - Run To Freedom 20/1 - if you're happy to settle for three places a couple of firms are now going this price (over 30 available on the exchange, which I've also taken, win only obviously). The drift from 14s on Thursday is a concern, I can't deny, but I don't think the Candy stable is one that your average punter latches on to but give him the right horse and he'll get it to produce the goods. If my figures for the horse can be taken at face value - and with one of the main dangers Double Or Bubble out of the race - he should be up beside or maybe just behind Pogo in the betting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.35 - Run To Freedom 20/1 - if you're happy to settle for three places a couple of firms are now going this price (over 30 available on the exchange, which I've also taken, win only obviously). The drift from 14s on Thursday is a concern, I can't deny, but I don't think the Candy stable is one that your average punter latches on to but give him the right horse and he'll get it to produce the goods. If my figures for the horse can be taken at face value - and with one of the main dangers Double Or Bubble out of the race - he should be up beside or maybe just behind Pogo in the betting.
Click to expand...

Yes I keep looking at this race and can't make my mind up. So think I will do this Run To Freedom each way and hope for some luck. He does look open to further progress.
 
Last edited:
The drift continues so I've gone in again. 25s the top price to three places but I've got just short of that boosted with Hills to four places plus the BOG. I wonder if it's turned up at the track with a leg missing.
 
Been keeping an eye on Shelir for the Clipper Logistics, who my instinct (haha, where did that ever get you, let's say a semi-semi-educated guess instead) says might be O'Meara's plot horse. Interestingly DT is down to ride Shelir and Blue For You, so something is possibly afoot. Just don't know what it is at this point. And (I think) Shelir may have played a semi-visible/cloaked part in Orbaan's Goodwood romp.

Best currently 40 with Skybet, 33 everyone else.

I guess there's more of a risk he won't run, given that double jockey booking, but maybe there's a legit reason for that. And you wouldn't have to do too much detective work to identify some evidence that this was/is a season target for Shelir.
 
Last edited:
Theres a good chance that Omeara will win the clipper logistics hcap and they all look to have good chances.but at the price I cant resist
WHATS THE STORY 50/1 won it in 2019 off 103 then unplaced 2020 off 106 and hasnt been running too badly this year.
Played up in the stalls in the hunt cup but besides that has run quite well.
Led all the way over 1m2f last time which got him a 6lb penalty that puts him on 96.

Even though I've done Alligator alley at 25s I really think NOMADIC EMPIRE 33/1 can win a big 'un and his mark has dropped from 102 to 95.gives Omeara a strong hand.
 
Faylaq goes in the 4.45 at Hamilton today. 40-1 with most.

This is a run-of-the-mill looking Class 3. At his best, and at the right distance, there's a chance he could carry a number of these round and lap them.

But...some concerns....

The distance looks questionable. Potentially too short. I'm half-suspecting they just need to get a run in for another/later target (note: he was entered up at Ascot a couple of weeks ago and didn't get a run).

But being at Hamilton might help a little....and the (reported) soft ground may help, too (has a couple of reasonable-looking pieces of form on soft).

So, risks. And maybe a couple of others that could be anything. But the price is too big to ignore completely.
 
Last edited:
Almost certainly give in the ground at Hamilton today. It's about 5 miles down the road from me and we had plenty of rain from teatime last night right through to this morning.

I've taken 33/1 to four places. I'm more worried about the ground than the trip. I don't think soft will particularly suit but it will make the stiff 9f even stiffer.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top