The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Cheers Simmo. Slightly annoyed I took 28s for the extra places but that’s nitpicking


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I can't say I fancy it much but Eldorado Allen shouldn't be umpteen times the price of a lot of these. I've taken a wee nibble at 150/1, four places.
 
Thank goodness he got up. Hewick didn’t deserve that. What a mighty race he was running.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Mares' Chase - Riviere D'Etel 20/1 - rated 150 this time last season as a novice so entitled to be 10lbs better this time round and taking on largely first-season novices. Happy to go in to decent stakes but only three places on offer.
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Mmm... not saying she'd have won but she was unlucky with the fall and appeared to be storming up the hill on her own.
 
Looking at the form lines that Foxhunters winner had with several of the fancied horses it should never have been 66/1. Should have looked more closely at that race.
 
No he definitely shouldn’t have been that price. The bookies tend to run for cover in Wessex when Bradley turns up at a meeting. At least they have learnt not to price them up at 10-1 or more if it was unknown. He’s very shrewd.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Mmm... not saying she'd have won but she was unlucky with the fall and appeared to be storming up the hill on her own.
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I thought that too watching live but looked at the replay and thought otherwise. She’d put in a few sketchy jumps before that too


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Newbury, Saturday - Deyrann De Carjac 20/1 - an early toe in the water with this. It's 3lbs lower than when beaten less than 6 lengths in the Mackeson, which is very good form [Ga Law, French Dynamite, Midnight River], and now Cannon (who I reckon is under-rated) takes the mount for the first time this season. A disappointing run in the Massey-Ferguson requires forgiving but an inexperienced claimer was on that day and maybe not a lot was expected. I half-expect Paul Kealy to be keen on it in his Weekender column tomorrow and that might see some contraction in the price.

Edit - getting my races mixed up. It was the Massey-Ferguson against Ga Law and the New Year's Day race next time.
 
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He did say in his Weekender article he had to decide whether to run him in that or the Veterans race on the same card (where still in atm)
 
Kelso 1.50 - Curious Times 33/1, 4 pl BOG (B365) - looks like he’s been kept for this since winning his qualifier back in September off 3lbs higher.
 
Nice spot, DO. My worry would be they've pulled him on the day of the race a few times - unsuitable ground. And trainer says he doesn't like it sticky (and the fc is for - some- rain at Kelso). At least one of those non-appearances was on soft ground, but weirdly one was a Kelso race on Sept 14 last year and looking at other races on the day I don't see anything kicking up. Indeed, it looks good there to me and, without other info, I'd have said they pulled because it was too fast. All in all, I don't know what to make of that, but maybe 33-1 covers that doubt somewhat.

Prairie Wolf looks the potential class act in the context of the race, but not backable in this at the current price.
 
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Trouble is he’s running against my beloved Okovango Delta. Also in the race, is it unusual for Sophie Leech to take horses that far north? She’s quite a canny trainer. I wish I was going to Kelso today: it’s a cracking card.
 
Who’s that trainer in the 3.50 at Newbury…Billy Abrahamian? Never heard of him but Darryl Holland is riding his horse Grain Trade 50/1.
 
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