The 2023 Longshot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
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chaumi
Rookie
Followed you in for the Potato after your last post. The possibilities look good. A nice win tomorrow and it's game on!!
The second favourite Corbetts Cross is a NR so there’ll be a 35p R4. Still 8/1 a good price
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Not too disappointed with that re my 85.0 voucher for Cheltenham. He looks an out and out stayer who with a clearer run and quicker jump at the last, would have been even closer. A stiffer and more truly run 3m in the Spud race will suit him, as long as Gordon runs him - he is entered.
chaumi
Rookie
Agreed, no harm done.
Fairyhouse 3.55
Now Where Or When has a lot to find on official ratings but looking at the opposition I am just wondering if he can out run the odds in this. Kemboy a top class horse but suffering from seconditis of late.
He could find this really easy or the fact they step him down in class after a poor run the last day might signify that his form is deteriorating?
The other Mullins runner who beat Dunboyne in the Thyestes Chase is interesting but I thought he had a hard race that day and Willie thinks his horse would prefer softer ground. Whether he can reproduce that run here is the question.
The rest of them I just don't think are in great form. Maybe Now Where Or When can run well after a good sixth in the Bulmers Chase when he was staying on at the end. He has been running consistently albeit at a lower level, and if he can find improvement stepped up in trip which I think he can, then he can run well tomorrow. His sire Where Or When was a group one winner on gd-fm on the flat so Now Where Or When should be fine on this decent ground.
He was entered in a competative handicap chase at Cheltenham and Leopardstown the last couple of months but they took him out quite late on. Connections must think he is worth his place in this line up I reckon.
A small each way for fun.
Now Where Or When has a lot to find on official ratings but looking at the opposition I am just wondering if he can out run the odds in this. Kemboy a top class horse but suffering from seconditis of late.
He could find this really easy or the fact they step him down in class after a poor run the last day might signify that his form is deteriorating?
The other Mullins runner who beat Dunboyne in the Thyestes Chase is interesting but I thought he had a hard race that day and Willie thinks his horse would prefer softer ground. Whether he can reproduce that run here is the question.
The rest of them I just don't think are in great form. Maybe Now Where Or When can run well after a good sixth in the Bulmers Chase when he was staying on at the end. He has been running consistently albeit at a lower level, and if he can find improvement stepped up in trip which I think he can, then he can run well tomorrow. His sire Where Or When was a group one winner on gd-fm on the flat so Now Where Or When should be fine on this decent ground.
He was entered in a competative handicap chase at Cheltenham and Leopardstown the last couple of months but they took him out quite late on. Connections must think he is worth his place in this line up I reckon.
A small each way for fun.
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Well done Marb. I did vanillier, ran a lot better today.
chaumi
Rookie
It's not inconceivable that Dark Raven might make the current 40-1 look generous in between the 2nd last and the last.
He fiddled 3 or 4 on the way round at Leopardstown, yet was still moving well after the 2nd last and briefly looked a threat on the run to the last. Inexperience maybe??? The softer ground here might help??
I think he'd have gone seriously close to winning the Ballymore. And will end up in long distance chases. But the Supreme is the chosen one for now. He's already proved he can keep up with champion level opponents for a long way at two miles. If the ground (and the hill) helps kick in the stamina, and the others find it a little tougher, we may see a 'surprise'.
It might be this isn't expected to be a wasted bullet.
And...if it goes wrong...losses will only be lent.
Edit - quote from Willie, which I think tells the likely story.... "If Dark Raven finished in the first six I think it'd be a very good run from him."
That doesn't mean he can't put in a good run and get into the 4, but does temper enthusiasm somewhat.
He fiddled 3 or 4 on the way round at Leopardstown, yet was still moving well after the 2nd last and briefly looked a threat on the run to the last. Inexperience maybe??? The softer ground here might help??
I think he'd have gone seriously close to winning the Ballymore. And will end up in long distance chases. But the Supreme is the chosen one for now. He's already proved he can keep up with champion level opponents for a long way at two miles. If the ground (and the hill) helps kick in the stamina, and the others find it a little tougher, we may see a 'surprise'.
It might be this isn't expected to be a wasted bullet.
And...if it goes wrong...losses will only be lent.
Edit - quote from Willie, which I think tells the likely story.... "If Dark Raven finished in the first six I think it'd be a very good run from him."
That doesn't mean he can't put in a good run and get into the 4, but does temper enthusiasm somewhat.
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chaumi
Rookie
I like the way Fanion Destruval finished in the Rowland Meyrick and can see Lucy riding a race from the back in the Ultima to come through beaten horses over the last 2. 25-1 best, and a top 6 finish looks eminently possible.
Happy is on the drift to 16s and a few more points might make him a candidate. Proven in the race, he's had a fairly easy season because of the ground, two years more time to get the body right, and the form against L'Homme Presse (and Into) in the Rehearsal looks strong enough. The ground is finally right for him today. Kim has him in the National (40-1), which will surely be at least halved if he goes well today.
Happy is on the drift to 16s and a few more points might make him a candidate. Proven in the race, he's had a fairly easy season because of the ground, two years more time to get the body right, and the form against L'Homme Presse (and Into) in the Rehearsal looks strong enough. The ground is finally right for him today. Kim has him in the National (40-1), which will surely be at least halved if he goes well today.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Lecky Watson ew Festival Bumper.
He reminds me of Florida Pearl and is from the family of Annie Power.
Owned by Lar "Hardy Eustace " Byrne , WPM trained, sure to outrun his odds methinks.
He reminds me of Florida Pearl and is from the family of Annie Power.
Owned by Lar "Hardy Eustace " Byrne , WPM trained, sure to outrun his odds methinks.
Coral cup.
OFF YOUR ROCCO 80/1 G.Elliot.
Was useful as a novice.beaten 11L by Blazing kai giving it 7lb.off 18 months.
Ran twice in December first over 2m in a premier hcap and then over 2m 4f.
Hasnt run since.
Very tough race but worth a go.
OFF YOUR ROCCO 80/1 G.Elliot.
Was useful as a novice.beaten 11L by Blazing kai giving it 7lb.off 18 months.
Ran twice in December first over 2m in a premier hcap and then over 2m 4f.
Hasnt run since.
Very tough race but worth a go.
chaumi
Rookie
Thx for the last 4, all. I had no clue for these races, at least have some to watch with extra interest now 
Thanks to Grass for getting me to follow Lieutenant Rocco. I hope he had him ew for the X Country. He’s s now tying with Mr Freedom as my favourite horse in training. ( and if this race hasn’t soured him Francky du Berlais is worth watching when back in handicaps: he was running a mighty race till he downed tools at the last*)
*seems that he refused because a loose horse ran across his path.
*seems that he refused because a loose horse ran across his path.
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chaumi
Rookie
Mr F ran out of his skin yesterday, Mo. Amazing run.
Good run for my money.still in it coming to the last and wknd into 10th.
Kicking myself for not taking 30/1 ten places.
I did Nells son 21/1 10 pla es and he was 8th.
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