You was so unlucky there Ed
The 2023 Longshot Thread
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You was so unlucky there Ed
chaumi
Rookie
Nice Edgt, 150 on BF. Probably would have been within half a length of the winner and may even have battled home in front.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Another stopped clock moment I enjoyed while it lasted.
Will make some 2 mile chaser, loads of scope.
Will make some 2 mile chaser, loads of scope.
BORN BY THE SEA 410C 100/1
I backed this last year and it finished 10th.
Its usually ridden by the kid but on this occasion wasnt so it was like a 7lb penalty.
This year its 5lb lower plus the kid is back on so is basically 12 lb lower.
After Cheltenham it finished 2nd to 1/6fav easy game.was a close up fifth at galway.
They have run it over 2m and 3m inc running against Energumene.
There will be worse 100/1 shots.
I backed this last year and it finished 10th.
Its usually ridden by the kid but on this occasion wasnt so it was like a 7lb penalty.
This year its 5lb lower plus the kid is back on so is basically 12 lb lower.
After Cheltenham it finished 2nd to 1/6fav easy game.was a close up fifth at galway.
They have run it over 2m and 3m inc running against Energumene.
There will be worse 100/1 shots.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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4.50 - Shecouldbeanything 66/1 - ridiculous price. Should be single figures.
chaumi
Rookie
Malinas. I'm hoping she'll handle the pace and outstay them. Up to 130 on the exchange and you're right, it's daft. Even the 33s and 40 earlier in the week looked worth a go. GL to both of us.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Did nothing at all wrong and plenty right. Clear of the seventh. Great run for the money.
Desert Orchid
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Mares' Chase - Riviere D'Etel 20/1 - rated 150 this time last season as a novice so entitled to be 10lbs better this time round and taking on largely first-season novices. Happy to go in to decent stakes but only three places on offer.
Glory & Fortune 66/1.
Only a 1lb higher than his Betfair. First Street and ILTM are now 150+ and he followed that up with a good performance in the Champion Hurdle where we went up another 6lb to 154.
Not at all disgraced giving lumps away in the Welsh Champion first time this year and then tried back over fences, which he just doesn't take to. Never put into the Betfair this year and is now back on an incredibly competitive mark of 144.
Aucunrisque is 4x the price of Filey Bay for the sake of an extra 1lb from their demolition job in this year's Betfair. That doesn't compute.
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Only a 1lb higher than his Betfair. First Street and ILTM are now 150+ and he followed that up with a good performance in the Champion Hurdle where we went up another 6lb to 154.
Not at all disgraced giving lumps away in the Welsh Champion first time this year and then tried back over fences, which he just doesn't take to. Never put into the Betfair this year and is now back on an incredibly competitive mark of 144.
Aucunrisque is 4x the price of Filey Bay for the sake of an extra 1lb from their demolition job in this year's Betfair. That doesn't compute.
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Desert Orchid
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Midlands Nash - if you get a move on you might get to snaffle 20/1 Time To Get Up. 8lbs lower than when winning two years ago.
Edit - also Floueur 40/1, now 4lbs lower than when 15/2 fav for last year's Ultima.
Edit 2
Saturday, Kempton 2.05 - Uhtred 50/1 - He was beaten less than 12 lengths in the 2021 G1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown earning an OR of 133, which would translate to 139 or so over here with the expectation that he could go 10lbs higher into his next season. After two easy wins in Ireland at the start of this season Skelton got him and has been messing about with him. It might for this, it might be for Ayr, but the jockey is 1-1 for the stable this season.
Edit - also Floueur 40/1, now 4lbs lower than when 15/2 fav for last year's Ultima.
Edit 2
Saturday, Kempton 2.05 - Uhtred 50/1 - He was beaten less than 12 lengths in the 2021 G1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown earning an OR of 133, which would translate to 139 or so over here with the expectation that he could go 10lbs higher into his next season. After two easy wins in Ireland at the start of this season Skelton got him and has been messing about with him. It might for this, it might be for Ayr, but the jockey is 1-1 for the stable this season.
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I thought the same as you B.but I took 40s.
PINKERTON 210 25/1
NO ORDINARY JOE 22/1
My original choice for this was Filey bays stablemate Merlins giant but the hcapper hit him hard.PINKERTON would have been 10lb better off for 3.5L.that was on soft.
No ordinary joe has one of my favourite jockeys on Luca Morgan and 2m4f on soft should suit well.
And I've done Royal Pigalle 50/1 in the GC.going should be ideal.
The ground will be too soft for Hewick by the looks of it.
NO ORDINARY JOE 22/1
My original choice for this was Filey bays stablemate Merlins giant but the hcapper hit him hard.PINKERTON would have been 10lb better off for 3.5L.that was on soft.
No ordinary joe has one of my favourite jockeys on Luca Morgan and 2m4f on soft should suit well.
And I've done Royal Pigalle 50/1 in the GC.going should be ideal.
The ground will be too soft for Hewick by the looks of it.
chaumi
Rookie
I'm hoping Prairie Dancer will be at the top of his game for the County after a 3 month break since running a long way behind Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond. 50-1 in places.
Don't believe that was true running at Fairyhouse, and there's a chance they decided to freshen him up just for this. If you take out that run, there are plenty others that say 50s is wrong.
Still only 5 and has a fair amount of experience, including proven big field (and big prize) efforts at Listowel and Galway, preceded by a reasonable run in last years Boodles.
Nicely positioned roughly in the middle of the weights.
Brendan Powell booking seems questionable. Can't work out the thinking there. Unless I'm missing something, Joseph hasn't used him before. But regular rider JJ Slevin doesn't ride anything else here. Brendan has ridden to reasonable effect in valuable UK races in the past.
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I'm not sure I can let Ganapathi go off without some small pennies, hopefully somewhere in the 200 - 300s Betfair. We now know that Patrick Neville has been getting some sort of magic dust in his tea at Ann Duffields. And that dust contributed to N'Golo (another ex-Willie inmate, similar to Ganapathi) taking the Swinton hugely unexpectedly. There was no fluke to the Whacker's win either, suggesting PN has developed some sort of magic touch. And what a story if he could pull off another one.
So what about Ganapathi? If you look at last year's Coral, he actually ran quite well, making up ground from the rear in fairly desperate ground to be within hailing of the leaders two out before dropping away. This years' preparation would look odd, with 3 chase runs, But a 90 day or so break (and p first time) suggests Patrick may think he has something to fight with.
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All that said, when you then put this into context with Skelton's Pembroke and Faivoir sitting even lower in the weights, the scale of the task against those seems tough. Pembroke you could argue not enough experience for this (but an argument that won't be surprising to lose), but Skelton knows how to win this race for sure (and we shouldn't be surprised if it's Bridget's one that does it, especially if we take the view the Betfair ground was just too fast)
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All in all....
Faivoir 33-1
Prairie 50-1
Gana For fun but only if in excess of 200 BF
Proper soft ground (if it is) should hold no fears for any of the three, though I suspect Prairie would be better off with it just on the soft side of good..
Don't believe that was true running at Fairyhouse, and there's a chance they decided to freshen him up just for this. If you take out that run, there are plenty others that say 50s is wrong.
Still only 5 and has a fair amount of experience, including proven big field (and big prize) efforts at Listowel and Galway, preceded by a reasonable run in last years Boodles.
Nicely positioned roughly in the middle of the weights.
Brendan Powell booking seems questionable. Can't work out the thinking there. Unless I'm missing something, Joseph hasn't used him before. But regular rider JJ Slevin doesn't ride anything else here. Brendan has ridden to reasonable effect in valuable UK races in the past.
******
I'm not sure I can let Ganapathi go off without some small pennies, hopefully somewhere in the 200 - 300s Betfair. We now know that Patrick Neville has been getting some sort of magic dust in his tea at Ann Duffields. And that dust contributed to N'Golo (another ex-Willie inmate, similar to Ganapathi) taking the Swinton hugely unexpectedly. There was no fluke to the Whacker's win either, suggesting PN has developed some sort of magic touch. And what a story if he could pull off another one.
So what about Ganapathi? If you look at last year's Coral, he actually ran quite well, making up ground from the rear in fairly desperate ground to be within hailing of the leaders two out before dropping away. This years' preparation would look odd, with 3 chase runs, But a 90 day or so break (and p first time) suggests Patrick may think he has something to fight with.
*************************
All that said, when you then put this into context with Skelton's Pembroke and Faivoir sitting even lower in the weights, the scale of the task against those seems tough. Pembroke you could argue not enough experience for this (but an argument that won't be surprising to lose), but Skelton knows how to win this race for sure (and we shouldn't be surprised if it's Bridget's one that does it, especially if we take the view the Betfair ground was just too fast)
*************************
All in all....
Faivoir 33-1
Prairie 50-1
Gana For fun but only if in excess of 200 BF
Proper soft ground (if it is) should hold no fears for any of the three, though I suspect Prairie would be better off with it just on the soft side of good..
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The only decent priced wins I’ve had this week have come from backing old and new favourites or cliff horses so I backed Ganapathi yesterday because of the trainer. The other good priced placed horse was a complete surprise because I’ve got no idea why I backed it. Maybe I’ll just do a lucky dip tomorrow! If there are going to be big prices to be found Friday is surely the day to find them. I’ve just done an ew double on Jupiter du Gite and Fifty Ball because I reckon that the God of racing owes the Moores one. If they do win I’ll be well fed up that I only put twenty pence on!
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Len Madeiros
Rookie
Spirit of Legend is nothing other than a “trends horse” in the Martin Pipe. But at 25/1, he’s the one to get me out of jail.
Good luck today, all. I hope we’ve all enjoyed the week, even if some of us are down for the week.
Good luck today, all. I hope we’ve all enjoyed the week, even if some of us are down for the week.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Dolcita 50/1 Mare's Chase
Felix Desjy 50/1 Martin Pipe
My idea of an ew double
Felix Desjy 50/1 Martin Pipe
My idea of an ew double
chaumi
Rookie
Prairie D now out to 80-1 (edit, and close to 200 BF). No logical reason for that (unless there's something we don't know). Chances are he can still jump slightly right and be there between the last two, potentially still 5 lengths clear (if Brendan can get the lead early and sit there) ...from there it's a question of whether he has enough to hold off the 15 closers 
PS JJS is in Ireland with a few nice looking chances. It's likely there is no 'sinister' reason he's not riding here.
PS JJS is in Ireland with a few nice looking chances. It's likely there is no 'sinister' reason he's not riding here.
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Can’t let cliff horses Glory & Fortune and Faivoir go unbacked at 50/1 (taken last night) and 28/1 respectively with 8 places on offer with SkyBet. Both clearly capable of a big race off their current marks but need to leave no-shows in the Betfair behind
Sure I’ve seen both mentioned on here
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Sure I’ve seen both mentioned on here
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Prairie D now out to 80-1 (edit, and close to 200 BF). No logical reason for that (unless there's something we don't know). Chances are he can still jump slightly right and be there between the last two, potentially still 5 lengths clear (if Brendan can get the lead early and sit there) ...from there it's a question of whether he has enough to hold off the 15 closers
PS JJS is in Ireland with a few nice looking chances. It's likely there is no 'sinister' reason he's not riding here.
Brenda Powell senior is assistant to Joseph isnt he.
chaumi
Rookie
Oh I love the County
beat, not beat, beat, not beat A finish to remember.
beat, not beat, beat, not beat A finish to remember.
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simmo
Senior Jockey
Well done sir.
chaumi
Rookie
Yeah I think Mohaayed was 33-1/55 BF, too. History repeats.
I think there were a fair few of us that landed on Faivoir independently. Well done all backers.
You only need one big winner to make your festival and it always comes!! (although we already had one of the festivals of a lifetime, win or lose)
I think there were a fair few of us that landed on Faivoir independently. Well done all backers.
You only need one big winner to make your festival and it always comes!! (although we already had one of the festivals of a lifetime, win or lose)
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